Member Info for epiphany121

Here's some insight into how the trade talks are trending, after their conclusion today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-09/beijing-trade-talks-wrap-hopes-deal-intensify

Lol..OK, Pelle. ;-)

We know we were at 1770 mill net debt at the end of October. And we'd have an outflow of 100 mill to pay for the closing of the Magnus deal in December. Add in the 10 mill from BUMI and FCF for the last 2 months, and also push for additional cash inflows in the last 2 months - I'd suggest that we'll up at 1790 mill, plus or minus 20 mill.

And we may well keep paying back the RCF quicker, as noted from the 65 mill early payment in November. All of these will save cash interest payments for 2019. The RCF was at 785 mill at the end of November and her highness, Vic Mc in her note was projecting 700 mill at the end of 2018, and I'm not sure that if that meant ENQ paid off 85 mill more in December. That would be nice though. Even if they didn't and we only pay back the 175 mill in April, the RCF debt then would be 600 million versus a 700 mill Ebitda for 2018. So much for breaching Covenants eh? Lol..

Numpty wants to push US stock markets higher by getting a China deal done. It's probably got through to his pea brain now that a trade war with China is no good for the US and he'll look to get any deal and project it as the greatest achievement ever for the US lot. That's good for Brent and will herald a return to the high 60s/70s soon enough. Let's see what happens - I'm optimistic though.

If we can turn around the AK FPSO issues soon enough, that'll be a massive bonus.

Pelle - Optimism and Squif in the same sentence. I'd always avoid mixing them up..;-) They just don't work together..

On a brighter note, maybe on the back of some comments from the SA oil minister, Brent has touched 60. I'll take an average $65 for H1 anyday.

No, they haven't revised the price target, which is loads of boll***s anyway, since Vic M still refers to Scolty and Kraken's issues as being the 'driver'..Lol.

I can't imagine why Scolty has ever been a contributing factor to recent valuation for ENQ. They have always stated that any improvements there would be after the remedial works in Q3 2019. Kraken I do understand is underperforming a bit, but her comments for retaining the 15p target is reflective of unwillingness to pull back from the deep hole she dug for herself with that half-baked 'research'.

Her projected EBITDA numbers for 2018 are maybe on the lowside, given that the price hedge levels for the H2 of 2018 are higher than H1 2018. I'd say that we'll end up with an EBIDTA closer to $700 mill for 2018 and we'll be well inside the covenant ratio for H1 2019. This $700 mill EBITDA is for the 'core' business excluding the 75% magnus contribution, which we should get for one month (December 2019), since the Magnus deal closed on the 1st December.

@Fernan - if I may point out in your spreadsheet (Line 45 of Core Business tab) that the RCF debt for 2019 is overcooked. It was already down to $785 million as of end of November, with the $200 mill paydown in October and the $65 mill payment in November.

Best

Many thanks for the updates, Romaron. It's good to see RBC backtrack from their badly done 'research note' yesterday.

Fernan - you do post your concerns, even though they may come across as negative, backed by facts and figures, and that is more than I can see for some of the trolls/'pretend longs' on this board. This at least encourages reflection of the bearish factors that are weighing down on ENQ share price, and I do acknowledge there are a few more hanging over ENQ's neck, than say with PMO/TLW.

We know that AK is a concern at this time, and the sooner that can be turned around, the better it is for us shareholders. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the issues are not insurmountable and they get resolved soon enough. And also hope for higher Brent prices in the coming months.

Best

Thanks for all your excel inputs and efforts, Fernan..

more like 1 share - it's difficult to spot these sells. My strain on our eyes is mind-boggling...

KO - I can't disagree a bit with what you write about these well meaning'd trolls. Lol.

L3 - had no great Epiphany on the Epiphany day - it was all very mundane. Back in good old blighty to a warm welcome from RBC, I suppose.

I'm still betting on a near V-shaped recovery in Brent and hopefully that'll take us to mid 60s soon enough. It's probably then worth taking out cashless collars - somewhere in the low 60s floor to the mid 70s ceiling range for H2. The $35+ plus crash in Brent in under 3 months is a stark reminder to all oil CEOs to hedge prudently and not to be very optimistic on Brent prices going up more than $75 on a sustained basis, at least as long as Shale investments are being sustained by these high prices.

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It's in the Ponzi man, GKB. Aptly named too..;-)

Spot on, Romaron. I wouldn't bother putting out an RNS in response to an analyst's bearish notes/downgrade. Not too many CEOs are Elon Musk like.. ;-)

ENQ will need to continue to execute better, and we'll need Brent to recover into the mid 60s at a minimum, and AK to rev up to the high 30ks - a combination of these 2 outcomes will set us up for the high 20s. In the meantime, the SP will probably muddle along at these levels.

Yep, true Pelle. All indebted oil companies in the NS are only really in play (from a debt reduction viewpoint) with oil greater than 60-65 a barrel.

Just as her opinion/target of 53p, based on a $80 Brent was useless, so will this new target of 15p be. In my view, both targets are based on Brent price levels to stay at levels that can't be predicted and are flawed. AK under performance is a concern and the sooner that gets resolved, the better for us.

Here's the link.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/212051/rbc-says-enquest-is-at-risk-of-debt-covenant-breach-amid-lower-oil-prices-212051.html

There's nothing new in it, TBH. It's everything we already knew and the down move today is a knee-jerk reaction to the downgrade. We know the Brent pricing will be the key to debt reduction for ENQ, and any increase in AK performance can only help.

Best

We don't have the research note detail yet, but the downgrade must be linked to the recent under performance of AK, presumably..

https://itportal.ogauthority.co.uk/pprslive/production-data?start_date=Oct+2018&production_type=OIL&production_unit=OIL_FIELD_UNITS&operator=ENQUEST+PLC®ulatory_jurisdiction=ANY

Happy new year all. I'm out on the west coast of Trumo's country, but at least they don't support him here. ;-)

Oil had a good turnaround today from the lows hit when China manufacturing data went negative, but the numpty still apparently believes that low oil prices are good for the economy, when the opposite is true in reality. A total nincompoop that doesn't understand that Texas and other oil states will lose jobs if oil prices stay at these levels.

In the meantime, Shalers are cutting production budgets. Mark Papa at Centennial is well known and respected oil CEO and he's cutting rigs this year and withdrawing forecasts for 2020. Stock is down from $23 in October to $11. And so are others. When rigs go, so will jobs eventually and numpty doesn't understand this basic dynamic???

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-shale-producers-hit-brakes-130000966.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-drillers-arent-producing-as-much-crude-as-forecast-finds-wsj-report-2019-01-02

Here's hoping for Brent to get above $60 first and a slow climb to the high 60s.

Best

Cheers, Chilts. Please double check the dates as we're at about 16 or 17 days, I believe, since the last load and that's an improvement from the 20 days load duration the last time around.

Triple witching days can be volatile - and prices can move up or down, depending on where the options (bets) are concentrated. Don't be surprised to see a big move downwards as well...;-) It's not all about the upside

Very insightful Ponzi. What would ordinary shareholders ever do without such cutting edge knowledge and foresight?