Member Info for epiphany121

Anyone noted the circa 1.8 million shares traded after the 4:30 market close today? More of AB's buys then? ;-)

KO - those 2 billion bbls in situ stats aren't anything new and are long known from the prospectus/RI documents. For fields of that size recoverability factor is 58 to 60%, and Magnus, from memory, is currently 54% extracted. We may be able to extract another 4 to 6%, if Brent is high enough for us to do more drilling and exploit other areas in the Magnus fields. 2P reserves are at 60 mill bbls and 2C are 16 mill bbls. These are the pertinent stats for ENQ at this time.

yes, OK. He did say that's the case ($25 op ex) for all fields. A case of rounding off, I suppose?

I wonder if these $25 are all-in costs though (non-cash expenses included)? I'll listen again later

No, AB said $25 op costs per barrel for Magnus - they brought that down from $50 a few years ago..

Cheers, Troajan. No wonder AB's been buying them at these levels,,;-)

Yes, that's almost certainly a BUMI research note from CIMB (Malaysian sell-side investment bank)

I can't see why BUMI alone will take responsibility for the mess; after all, we did choose them for Kraken in spite of knowing that they're a NS novice. They're operating the FPSO and so, the costs are on them to fix issues.

That's backward looking and hindsight is usually amazing. We are where we are and we have to get on with it. Let's hope we don't run into more issues though and Brent recovers from these levels soon.

A very sensible post, Soder; I can't argue with that. The SP is moving down on hardly any volume, and though painful, this is not bad. A positive piece of news/outcome on AK can turn this negative sentiment around quickly enough.

BTW, I spotted you saying that you're from Sodermalm. I know Skanstull fairly well as I have a client based there. I do come there occasionally, although not as often as I used to in the past.

Hey MO,

Good to see hanging you around still and hope all's well. Maybe you'll be back here a bit more, now that hopefully AK is back on track at 35 kbopd. It's good that ENQ has set a low bar in 2019 for AK and I'm hoping, for the sake of my portfolio, that they'll beat these numbers easily. ;-) I can but hope as it's been a painful 4 months since last October.

Do let us know if you spot load #31 - I'll be all ears too.

Jan - are you denying MinerB his/her livelihood by sowing doubt/fear on this board, albeit in a rather subtle manner I must admit.

At $35, it's not ENQ that'll go bust. Most of North Sea oilers would too and that's a no brainer!!!

Oh well - yet another addition to my filter list...

Not really..we need Brent to hold 60 (down a couple of bucks today) and for the next tanker to come in the next 2 weeks - that is the good sign ;-)

And KO was indeed spot on. :-) Offload should happen on Thursday morning.

Nice one, L3 - cheers. That's a massive relief and hopefully, we'll have the next one in a couple of weeks' time to re-assure us.. ;-)

KO - I can't see how MinerB is posting insider information when he/she says that they've worked on EP and offers an opinion on ENQ. I also can't see why posting feedback from IR (or from any other source quoted/unquoted) is an issue as that is not considered materially relevant. Let's all take a chill pill.. ;-)

I'm still long, but we can all see how weak the SP is even after the large CEO purchase. I'm not blind to that obvious reality. The naysayers are getting this right (for now) and Mr.Market is voting with it's feet in agreeing with their views that ENQ's execution with AK is poor. This is why we're languishing near 52-week lows, when others have rallied in the past few weeks. I take MinerB's point that till some positive execution news is known, such as regular tankers at AK, we'll languish at these levels or go lower with lower Brent, I fear. Whether we longs like it or not, AK is viewed as materially relevant for ENQ to deleverage faster.

GLA

Fernan and Pelle,

There's also an FCF generation modelling they've put together at the of this note, and they're projecting $440 mill FCF at $60 a barrel and $670 mill at an average of $70. It's much above what our calculations are showing and that is probably because because they're over-estimating cash flows from Magnus, not taking the waterfall into account. I'll do some digging, hopefully over the weekend, to see how they're exactly working this out.

The research note is quite positive on Enquest's debt and liquidity, on balance. Concerns about execution at Kraken has been noted though.

I've never heard of them, but apparently, they're a global specialist bond house..

Romaron - here's something I found on the internet. Please check out the link below. Apparently the USD bonds were trading at 77.5 cents, down from 91 cents at the end of October.

The PDF also has some analysis on debt, operating costs, covenants and make for interesting reading.

http://www.guybutler.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/EnQuest-update-Jan-2019.pdf

Yes, so this was the biggest weekly fall since Feb 2016. 21 of these rigs were oil rigs, which is what really matters. 7 of these were from the Permian (this really, really matters) ;-)

As we know the US hit a record 11.9 mill bbls/day production as per this week's EIA report. WTI/Brent needs this rig pullback on a sustained basis though to ensure there's no bigger production spike

Probably not, KO. I saw 2 large purchases one mid-afternoon, where the volume suddenly jumped circa 2 million, and later at the end of the day. It's likely to be one of these.

Brilliant news!!!! That's one show of confidence in the company. Good on you, Amjad.

Maybe there is some hope after all - and the clown has, belatedly, realised that he has to strike a trade deal with China sooner than later. This combined with positive manufacturing news from the US, possibly takes the bears' recession headlines off the picture. And Brent has responded well thus far. Fingers crossed..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/china-offers-path-to-eliminate-us-trade-imbalance-sources