Member Info for epiphany121

Is likely to be tomorrow, Chilts. Due now at Orkney on the 6th in the evening. Ops update on Thursday maybe - it's the typical day when an update comes out.

Good news about the completion of the Magnus transaction.

Canada will be cutting 325 kbopd production starting next month, till the tar sand oil (WCS crude oil benchmark) glut is cleared. WCS is currently trading between $10 to $15 a barrel and producers are suffering massive losses on a daily basis. Although the cut is by no means permanent, it's yet another short term tail wind to oil prices.

On to OPEC now...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-alberta-crude/alberta-to-force-oil-output-cuts-to-deal-with-price-woes-idUSKBN1O203A

As expected, an initial short covering rally on the back of the trade war truce, is on. Brent is up 2 and half bucks. We shouldn't be surprised to see this solid rally extend further after the US Nymex pits start trading our PM..

This may answer some of the questions posed here. My read is that they had a debt repayment of $500 mill due, of which they repaid $120 mill and are in negotiations to restructure the remaining $380 mill due in Q1 2019 plus potential asset impairment risks too. All in all, it does sound like BUMI are facing a lot of headwinds at this time, unfortunately.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/183698.jsp

Here's hoping that we'll get there with DC4, MO. Or whatever other optimisations they're doing at AK..

It looks like it's full-steam ahead for NO and a tomorrow morning hookup. I'd like to see a larger load, but it'll probably end up in the circa 500k barrel load - I'm sure you'll extrapolate this number soon.

Cheers, MO. Not great and AK's still muddling along. We await DC4 and what that may bring..

Cheers, Pelle. Magnus may not surprise as the new second well would've come online during the middle of September and that could've impacted over Magnus production during both August and September, inline with what happened with the first well in April. We await a ramp-up in October.

Kraken is sort of muddling along isnt it, with a circa 33 kbopd in September - higher than the H1 rate? Would DC4 make a difference - sure, we'd hope so, as I do agree these are not ideal production levels...

Morning MO, Chilts,

Thanks for the NO heads-up - let's see who/when we end up with.

On the Brent side, from a demand viewpoint, China and Numpty have agreed to a truce right now and that China would buy more from the US, including oil, to reduce bilateral trade deficits and come up with more concrete steps within 90 days. That is good, for now, to move back oil demand concerns over slowing growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/us-china-wont-impose-additional-tariffs-after-january-1-report.html

We should see both broader stock and oil markets higher tomorrow.

On the other side, if the supply issue can also be fixed via OPEC/NOPEC, we should Brent in the 70s soon enough and that's where we need it to be, realistically.

Here's an article with details of Kraken like Heavy Sweet crude will be so much more in demand in the run-up to the new 2020 regulations. The discount to Brent shouldn't be that large in the near future, and who knows, may even trade at a premium in the run-up to 2020..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/shale-gluts-and-ship-rules-make-heavy-sweet-oil-an-unlikely-star

That's a fair deduction, Pelle. We'll know next week..

Yep, fair point, Squif.

And it'll be good if they can include November production too (and maybe debt) - that would make a lot of sense, even if they're indicative at this stage. I didn't want to push that question/s - can/did anyone else check with IR? ;-) Please let us know what you hear..

Best

i meant to write "we'll see next week, won't we?".

Had a heads-up from IR that it'll be next week. I didn't ask the why, but we can only but assume that November data may be included in this update..We'll see next week, won't be. Plus we'll have September OGA actuals this weekend too.

Moved back to next week, I suppose? Did anyone check with IR?

Jan, yes indeed. 70 is where FCF can cut through debt real quick. We won't go bust at these levels, but what we do need is circa 70 to get a nice leg up.

Here's toasting to the Saudis leading the way..

The degree of pain (or joy) in either the SP or the bonds is directly correlated to where Brent will go from here. These Brent price levels aren't good from a solid FCF generation viewpoint to pay down debt quickly - that's a given. If Brent goes down lower from here - so will ENQ/PMO and the rest of the indebted oilies that ride on Brent's coattails. That's the simple reality here.

Spot on, Nick.

Brent prices is possibly an important factor. We last saw these prices on the retail bond late last year when Brent was in the 50s and this is where we're at now with Brent..And it's looking very weak still.

Hey MO,

Thanks for the info and the links. It just feels like HK is raring to go, but is being held back by the rather nasty conditions in that part of the North Sea. hSig wave heights of 7+ mtrs and 15+ peak waves is something that can't be discounted. This could've been a 13 dayer, but for this sh**te storm.

Anyways, we have the update to look forward to, hopefully tomorrow.. ;-) Alma is trending at about where IR indicated and that's good to know.

Let's where the other production metrics stack up...

Here's to yet another ringing endorsement from AB that we're undervalued. Now, if only NOPEC do co-operate, that'll be fantastic.