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Im not sure what the incentive to ‘go’ early on a buyout / takeover is (unless there are internal reasons at the prospective purchaser) over waiting until Sept. SP may lift on good results but that’s also a validation of buyout rationale and buyout price probably above the SP lift (if results are good) : so probably best to be stalking the business
At Spades I wonder if this happens after interim results (Sept) or whether someone bites the bullet and goes early with a bid. I would expect trading to be good. Competition poor. B&P should be smashing it in this weather. Concessions (airport) big Summer ahead. I think B&P might do surprisingly well.
Mkt cap of £1BN is an SP around 120p. For such a rerate in 6 months there’d have to be an offer (my view) I don’t think it happens incrementally (that quickly) - Brunning & Price sale would be fab -but- I expect it’s doing really well, with weather etc. so who buys it at a price that suits RTN - not many in market. I guess RTN best gets value over short/medium term with PE buy-out and break-up
We forget (in part because we may want to) that the last set of results were awful. Awful without warning when indications were they’d be good. Boring as it seems the next set of results simply need to align to statement made on morning of AGM. Upon doing so, then there’s more evidence THG is undervalued and that evidence is available to all : cue a revaluation. Bring on September.
I think we’ll drift sideways until interim’s in Sept. Annoying as could do with being a more in vogue stock
90p today and I’d sell. Must be worth somewhere btwn 150-200p. How can it realise it
I think removing Kirk Davis (presuming he got the boot) and replacing internal was a missed opportunity. I actually think Kirk had done okay and most investors did too - his reappointment was well supported. I am also pleased activist investors are holding some challenge : which the board should ordinarily do
Can anyone share a summary / their thoughts on it ?
If that is the angle this moves… ie MM proving city wrong, exit would be at IPO and good riddance to City. I think it’ll be taken out before then. Expect MM comfortable he (a group) can counter bid to a point - so tactic is to continue with listing xyz… wait for bids and then come in over the top. I don’t think MM or MBO kicks this off - they’ll react and are ready too. Gets funky if someone like Apollo come in with a 270p ish bid as then MBO would need to clear it by a margin to put it to bed. I think there maybe no movement for a while on the basis when you go at the King you had better not miss - so a lot of prep / scheming - and then just when you don’t think anything with happen - bam!
At 101 I don’t think so. They’d probably try and do it all at once - for internal legal counsel would have shared there is a window - this is it, I.e. it’s open - and may then close at any mo : hence 2.No directors taking the opportunity. // separately, I hope Beauty is doing well - didn’t sound like it was in the update - or at least not as well as nutrition - it needs to be performing for others to see it as platform to join / acquire / part acquire.
I thought Kirk was okay. Jump or push? RTN properly sideways slightly down at the mo. I was hoping for a double bagger this year. Need 90p for that. Unlikely. Keen on a trading update soon. And massive sliming down of leisure portfolio
Muted but marked SP uplift (maybe we will be 79p by Friday) - and I’m starting to want more of this : boring steady rise. Sept trading update important now - it needs to meet guidance provided here - if it does and FY24 is FCF +ve then it becomes obvs there is a re-rate. Talk about takeover etc - we’re not in control - but removal of golden share is a sign to market THG is growing up and soon requires a grown up valuation. I am a bit worried about Beauty falling behind pack - being seen as a lesser medium by market and consumer.
Sadly I think not stockbrokerbelt there’s less and less disposable income in UK - will get harder as mortgages renew - not a great backdrop for likes of THG. But I think THG would be well set now with a low cost base if all the fancy projects get parked… also international exposure great.
I wonder if Odey firesale continues on Monday pushing this down further. Could Oasis get to 20% holding? (At 30 lol they have to make an offer).
I’m going with 79 (hope I’m wrong). I think they’ll be no news at AGM or trading update in advance. A bit of a protest vote but not big enough. It’ll all be procedural with some cryptic words from MM followed by a LinkedIn article. There might be something new on golden share and premium listing (in which case that gets RNS’d in advance). Would absolutely love a 400p offer morning of AGM -but- that’d be cuckoo, so 79p it is. May even be stagnant.