Member Info for Ephemeral

THG Purchases. A few sales would do wonder for SP.

2009

Zavvi - Sum paid not disclosed

2010

IWOOT - £0.6M

Lookfantastic - £19.4M

Mankind - £2.5M

2011

HQhair - Sum paid not disclosed

Myprotein - £60M

2013

Coggles - Sum paid not disclosed

ProBikeKit - Sum paid not disclosed

2014

Active Nutrition International - Sum paid not disclosed

Preloved - Sum paid not disclosed

2015

Pop In A Box - Sum paid not disclosed

My Geek Box - Sum paid not disclosed

Mio Skincare - £3.7M

2016

Grow Gorgeous - Sum paid not disclosed

SkinStore - £17.9M

Hale Country Club & Spa - £23.8M

IdealShape - £30.7M

SkinCareRx - £4.4M

2017

Hangar Seven - £9.2M

UK2 Group - £58M

RY - £6.8M

Glossybox - £17.5M

ESPA - £68.2M

Illamasqua - £16.9M

2018

Eyeko - £16.5M

Language Connect - £12.7M

Acheson & Acheson - £52.8M

2019

Christophe Robin - £44.7M

Eclectic Hotel Group - £39.9M

2020

Perricone MD - £51M

David Berryman Limited - £7.5M

Claremont Ingredients Limited - £61.1M

Dermstore - £260.9M

2021

Indigo Environmental Limited - £6.3M

Arrow Films - £18.5M

More Trees - £3.2M

Private Label Nutrition - £2.7M

Preston Plastics Limited - £18.9M

Brighter Foods Limited - £43.8M

Bentley Laboratories LLC - £180M

Morvélo - £0.6M

Cult Beauty - £291.3M

2023

City A.M. - £1.5M

Biossance - £15.7M

What's the case to 'not' buy Easyjet currently?

Industrial dispute in France over Summer (air traffic controller strike) : already advised.

Economic outlook bleak : holidays are sticky and European getaway more economic than intercontinental.

Fleet : getting better and with Airbus outside of US issues (to an extent).

Poor dividend.

I can't find good reason not to buy at these prices.... could anyone suggest some please?

The below by sj says it all:

APN H1 EBITDA is near £14 million with £9million FCF and no debt. They are actually making money unlike THG.

It can’t always be ‘tomorrow’ as it so often is with THG. If the 18mth rebrand did not create a customer following why was it enacted? If it did why is THG insulating consumers from whey prices - when previously the competition did not? I dont see a long term plan beyond the tactical year to year get through headwinds.

If plan is to grow nutrition marketshare to be massive (and insulate consumers - read take a hit to do so) then pathways beyond are massive revenue pool when whey prices drop; massive brand recognition - and hopefully the later plus infrastructure leads to a major player going for a buyout.. a nestle / GlaxoSmithKline?

I would be pleased if we finished week neutral - that would be a positive steps

I just don’t understand the easyJet sp? It seems so obviously undervalued - yet has gone sideways for years. Part of me wants to pile in further - but - what am I not seeing that most of the market is to price at this level.

Would below be fare.

£400m mkt cap + £330m debt = 730m.

With sale

£400m mkt cap + 230m debt = 630m

630/730 = 0.863.

There is a 0.863 of previous burden on value in business.

Ergo SP could rise c. 1/0.86=1.163 - so 16%.

I know I’m conflating things but as a back of envelope would that be fair?

Disposal great news.

Personally unconvinced on insulating customer from whey prices.

BUT - welcome that (a) there is a strategy and (b) it is clearly communicated in advance. Noting that (c) Exec maybe right in long run to grow the consumer base ahead of margin.

Shareholders need whey prices to drop.

Blimey I got that read completely wrong. Woohoo

This is an awfully worded RNS.

FY25 performance expected to be in line with expectations

In saying almost nothing I am concerned it will be seen to be hiding something. Sadly I think SP will tank on open (hope I am wrong).

Improving FCF cannot be understated as a must. That was the entire rationale in offloading ingenuity. It is a must. W/O Chair should step down. Complete failure to execute a corporate strategy

230p is borderline a steal is it not. Surely it wouldn’t tank that hard. If it does I definitely got this wrong. Am 10% down as it stands and did not expect that

Yes.. and a recent Forbes article also positive - but - it has gone sideways since Covid whilst others have performed… I don’t understand why - but - the market is seeing an issue we aren’t.

I think it won’t be a b of the bang moment sadly. More like a gradual shift into 2nd / 3rd gear with the clutch grinding. My hope is there are no more clangers in management and that Vistry is using its clout for better grant awards / and buying power. And that both with a supportive (?) planning context gets things moving. If it does motor it’s a 2027 for getting into 4th / 5th gear -

And as we know much can happen between now and then

Sorry my bad 5th is tomorrow 🤦.

Doesn’t look good in terms of pre-result sentiment.

I did not add.

Let’s see. Fingers crossed for progress and uptick

Thank you 1pencil. Others have mentioned it in passing but your post reminded me of it. Subject to no shenanigans (!) THG is in effect a leveraged bet on future whey prices and consumer desire for health / protein related products. So it could really rebound early next year but not much before (is my evolving view). Though if Sept results are sensible some shorts may close and funds buy in for an upswing.

As is the same for many it’s very difficult to sit on such a large paper loss - and in my case where I’ve averaged down from the 300’s and only been successful on a small 23p / 28p buy of late - meaning I am hugely over allocated to a high risk idiosyncratic stock. The cost of learning.

Am unsure where this share is going for a while. Ripe for a takeover but who’s in takeover mode. Separately slightly worried by the discounting on Summer sale

@1pencil where do you see results landing with Nutrition? I think there’ll be bump in offline… but usually flustering over maintain market share over margin. My fear is it will disappoint a bit on profit but be okay ish on revenue.

Makes you think 1pencil; despite all the warranted criticism of THG (BoD and CEO, MM) whey prices have not been favourable (nor was the action to insulate customers from these costs), hopefully the drop in price continues. It peaking in May is likely to impacted results to July.

Vty slightly insulated from this (as also w/o upside opportunity) given partnership model with sales on pre-agreed £ for BtR and AH. Hoping the new AH funding from govt is being released quickly and VTY are being clear on risk items that need to be covered in grant funding. If some major AH deals can pass in Q3 then good for VTY, good for govt and frankly good for country

Arrives Friday 05/08. Was pushed back by a week (but sometime ago). What’s the view. I’m resisting adding - as few have shared, this might be an opp to 2nd kitchen sink bad news, (that already having happened). Yet I thought 400p was low and bad news factored in.