Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks so much to you all for very coherent posts. This is a high quality board.
I have been watching Nano closely since 2009. I have been an intermittent investor and have very recently made a fairly significant investment (for me) of just north of £50K.
Several of you have raised the issue of the very complex science. I have three university (London) science degrees, including a first in medical physics, and the science here is definitely very complicated.
The premature death of Dr Jeremy Wilson at the young age of 42 in November, 2021 at Kirkland and Ellis (Samsung's leading counsel vs. Nanoco) will be keenly felt. He was a rare lawyer, holding a Ph.D. in physics. He was clearly a very bright and capable person, who joined Kirkland and Ellis in 2010 and was promoted to Partner status in 2016. Surveying the 135 K+E Partners in their Intellectual Property Department reveals that there are only five Partners who hold a doctorate; two in their New York office, one in San Francisco, one in Los Angeles and one in Chicago. I imagine his combined scientific/legal skills would be very difficult to replace and K+ E would have had much catch-up to do.
I am intrigued to note that K+E are establishing an office in Austin, Texas, owing to this city becoming a major hub for the tech industry.
Thanks so much again for all of your excellent and informative posts. GLA.
Yes, some of the posters on the ADVFN board are very savvy as committed LTHs. I met one or two of them at the AGM held on Wednesday, October 30th, 2019, at AGL's offices on Nugent Road, Guildford. We grilled the Board for 90 minutes on that occasion to assess Andrew Newland's qualities and Parsortix's potential. Quoting from the extensive notes I took on that occasion, Newland stated:
* AGL keen to pursue collaboration with Abbott, with view to producing hybrid between Parsortix and Abbott's HER2, with possible separate FDA application for this hybrid.
* Newland emphatic about NOT committing to EXCLUSIVE collaborations with any one US major. Happy to encourage Circulating Tumour Cell (CTC) testing by a number of companies as it raises awareness. Newland explicitly said that we are NOT competing with Guardant and Exact.
* Ambition for AGL to become a large market-cap business. The model Newland admires most is Illumina. He specifically quoted target of m/cap of £5 Bn within 7-10 years, with probable Nasdaq listing at some point.
* Very clear emphasis on FOCUS, both for Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) and Ovarian/Pelvic mass. Sadly, both have high incidence across the Western World. Once FDA clearance is gained for MBC, Newland considered that approval for Ovarian/Pelvic mass could be expedited.
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On a personal note, AGL remains my largest investment by a considerable margin. I am content to be a "constant gardener" and have already sat through the glum time when Jupiter sold off, needing to recoup cash after its poorly judged shorting of Tesla. I am a retired medic by trade and have some insight into the medical issues involved. The prospect of extending the use of Parsortix beyond MBC and Pelvic mass includes the sadly common non small-cell lung cancers, melanoma, prostate, colo-rectal, renal-cell, and head-and-neck cancers. The benefits could be very far-reaching indeed. Good luck to everyone!
CNBC reporting that both VW and Ford are planning further EV models for their European markets.
Awaiting Anton du Plessis' announcements at 10am this Wednesday, March 16th.
Purchased a further 100,000 shares today in hopeful anticipation. GLA.
Interesting to hear that HMG has announced antibody testing survey. As several of you have noted, there is an extensive antigen and antibody survey running already in a collaboration between the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). These are the facts about this existing survey:Chief Investigator-Prof Ann Sarah Walker.
1) Conceived and published in July 2020.
2) Cohort size of approximately 150,000, sampling randomly chosen people across UK.
3) Rolled out in September/October 2020, with consent required from each participant.
4) Initially weekly testing for first five tests, then regular monthly testing.
5) Testing is duplex: oral/nasal swab for antigen by PCR(National Lighthouse Labs) and full blood draw for antibodies tested using the OmniPATH SARS-Cov-2 IgG test. Positivity threshold 43ng/ml.
6) For many months now, the antibody test has been by finger-prick self-testing, rather than full blood draw.
7) Questionnaire presented to subject on each visit.
8) Payment of £25.00 in coupon form paid to subject after each visit. Thus, ignoring logistical and testing costs, HMG has been paying out approx £3.75 M per month to the 150,000 subjects.
9) Results are published weekly for both antigen and antibody. Proposed duration to end April 2022.
Hitherto, at no point to my knowledge have LFDs been used in the present study for either antigen or antibody testing. It will be very interesting to see whether the semi-quantitative LFD produced by ABDX for antibody testing features in any further HMG programme.
From the epidemiological point of view, it would be extremely useful to monitor antibody status as the booster (third dose) programme progresses and as HMG tries to expand its inoculation of the 5 to 11 years-old. Clearly, there are caveats in many directions: the positivity threshold is nominal and antibody testing takes no account of T-Cell immunity which may be both more pronounced and enduring in the young.
Declaration: I am a retired medic watching the situation with ABDX closely. Not currently invested. My opinion is that HMG's financial position will determine the extent and nature of further large-scale testing programmes. Good luck everybody!
AgentB: Thanks for that. I'm quite a student of the so-called "Spanish 'Flu" pandemic, but your info was new to me. Tragically, that H1N1 influenza pandemic was felt worst by people in their middle years 30-40ish, which meant that a lot of children were orphaned. Indeed, I know one lady, only recently deceased, who was orphaned in that pandemic. It is considered possible that the older folk may have been protected by being infected when they were much younger, but their immunity prevailed for decades. It's also fascinating that Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for Bubonic Plague (The Black Death), has sponsored some interesting protective epi-genetic effects in people many generations down the line.
Yorkshirepragma: I was thinking of John Bell, who was meant to have oversight of the Porton Down test accreditation, but was, presumably, "got at" by government. I'm afraid it goes a lot deeper than that in my view. Porton Down is, as you know, tangled up with Public health England (PHE). BJ ludicrously appointed Dido Harding as head of the UK Test and Trace programme. Harding's husband is a certain John Penrose. He sits on a right-wing think-tank which has the expressed aim of dismantling PHE and privatizing the UK health industry. I think this political manipulation is going to be very difficult to keep hidden in the long-term. You couldn't make it up!!
It is all the more shameful when you consider that Sir Paul Nurse, Nobel Laureate and Director of the Crick Institute in London, volunteered his Institute as a centre for testing. He, as a truly global figure, was the obvious choice to head-up the UK Test and Trace scheme. But, nah, BJ had better ideas. In the end, the government will sacrifice scientists like John Bell as convenient scape-goats to obscure more deep-seated political machinations. Whitty and Vallance should, in my opinion, have made an impassioned case for cranking up home-grown LFT Antigen testing way back in the Autumn of 2020 and stuck to their guns. But, of course, Test and Trace has been a complete shambles from the get-go and you would have needed a competent T and T programme to have made even the best quality Antigen LFTs workable as a powerful force.
We have been promised a proper enquiry into Covid-19, but I bet you that the results of that will not emerge before the next election, whenever that will be. BJ will be long gone.
Yorkshirepragma: Yes, totally agree. The Porton Down issue is appalling. Obviously government interference. With all the recent exposure of heart-of-government sleaze, BJ knows he's at last been found out and they are back-tracking to cover their backs. I can only imagine that the reliance on Chinese (and very inferior) LFTs was to grease the wheels for some hoped-for post-Brexit deal with China.
It is totally beyond belief that UK bio-tech (who are global leaders) was not heavily promoted by our own government, particularly as several (including AVCT) of the home-grown bio-tech facilities lie in the so-called Red-Wall seats. I think the recent by-election in North Shropshire must have ripped through Tory complacency. BJ will not last long, but in any case he wants to earn more as a globe-trotting lecture-circuit guy to pay for his numberless offspring. Who picks up the poisoned chalice remains an interesting question. Shameful indeed.
AgentB and others: I think you raise a very valid point. I am a retired medic, so express a semi-qualified opinion.
There are several issues here and some are heavily tainted with political influence:
1) "Immunity", properly understood, means that your immune system is primed (either by prior infection or inoculation) to respond very rapidly and with much greater vigour to subsequent infection.
2) The UK government's primary strategy has been vaccination. In so doing, they have grievously neglected both antigen and antibody testing.
3) To promulgate that vaccination strategy, the government has sought the most simplistic messaging. Whitty and Vallance have therefore been under the cosh NOT to explain carefully that vaccination, even at best, will NOT prevent you from becoming infected, and may NOT prevent you from becoming infectious, if infected. Inoculation will, at best, attenuate the severity of any post-vaccination infection and may, thus, attenuate infectivity.
4) Owing to the almost complete lack of routine widespread antibody testing, the government has only modest data on the longevity of the various vaccinations.
5) The data-set they do have emerges largely from the ONS/U of Oxford testing programme. This scheme tests a randomly chosen cohort at monthly intervals for PCR-measured Antigen and OmniPATH IgG Antibody titres. Absurdly, at no point, has LFT Antigen testing been introduced as a comparator measure to the PCR in this programme.
6) By accelerating the vaccination programme (reducing recommended intervals between inoculations), much of the information regarding endurance efficacy of particular vaccines cannot be ascertained.
7) Thus, we are going to remain very bereft of crucial epidemiological data, both for the immediate and longer-term future.
It became obvious to me some time ago that the government's simplistic messaging regarding vaccination was deemed to be a solitary priority, with massive neglect particularly of our UK Antigen LFT industry. I detect a distinct stench of sleaze here and certainly incompetence.
On the issue of vaccination durability, I would quote my own example which is clearly totally anecdotal and therefore not applicable more widely. I have been tested assiduously for antibodies every month with the highest quality testing: primary infection gave me 10 months of partial protection prior to first inoculation. Second inoculation (both AZN) was still giving positive antibodies up to exactly 6.5 months, at which point I received booster (Moderna).
I made the point on this BB several times in late 2020 that the government should have put UK-derived LFT testing on a War-footing. Extraordinarily (or not, depending on how much you believe this government) AVCT has only just received its HUA, exactly when we are crashing into a new variant spike and LFTs are in short supply. Egregious government manipulation in my view, but way too little and far too late.
Anyway, GLA and keep safe.
Chilting and Ginandmilk: Well said, Chilting! I take a similar view that management quality has improved immensely, the product range is impressive and the enhanced San Antonio facility is now primed. My target Market Cap is in the region of £300M. At a P:E ratio of approx 15, this would represent earnings of about £20M p.a. This may take some years to achieve, but my hands are very sticky indeed. This is one of a few instances (despite the mercurial nature of AIM), where I perceive a decent, solid company with recognised existing products in a defensive space as currently very undervalued and has much potential. I agree with you, Chilting, that ITX is in a similar category.
The recent Director's purchase, albeit quite small, was encouraging and there are some serious people who have increased their investment in the last several months. The large number of shares in issue (7 Billion) may put people off and the last cash-call at 0.25pence was savage for many investors, but I do believe that the structure and potential of this business has been consolidated and we await a slowly expanding return to normalised elective surgery. In my view, as a retired medic, the Omicron variant will spike further, but then attenuate as we head into better seasonal weather.
I do wish everyone well and may 2022 render a healthier and safer World. GLA.
Castle2012: Sad to say but this is the MMs (Masters of Manipulation) at their dirty work. They're trying to tempt weak hands to sell, knowing that there may be some folk who have been granted shares from BCN. Investors can sell, but can't buy in volume. It almost certainly means that they have an order to fill from a buyer. That's actually a positive, so please don't be sucked into their devious shenanigans. I'm ready to buy more if the SP is artificially pushed lower.Much long-term promise here, in my view. GLA.
Encouraging advance today. It's worth remembering that the expected demand within the EU by 2030 is 360,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE). Also, that by January 2026, Li-ion batteries utilized in the EU will have to bear a carbon intensity performance-class label and, by July 2027, all batteries must comply with maximum carbon footprint thresholds, with the EU banning any batteries not meeting new regulations.
Thierry Breton, EU Commissioner, stated many months ago: "We are 100% dependent on Lithium imports. The EU, if finding the right environmental approach, will be self-sufficient in a few years using its own resources."
Both the Cinovec and Zinnwald deposits (the former 49% owned by EMH) which are adjacent and straddle the German/Czech border should prove relatively easy to mine and the hope would be to co-ordinate the mining programmes with a single ramp for the underground mining. The Cinovec deposit has the advantage of a significant Tin deposit; the Zinnwald deposit has the advantage of up to 32,000 tons-per-annum of Potassium Sulphate for fertilizer and aggregate tailings for the building industry. ZNWD also has two further licences- Falkenberg (295.7 hectares) and Altenberg (4,225 hectares).
The combined Cinovec/Zinnwald deposit is Europe's largest spodumene Lithium deposit by a large margin (it is known as Zinnwaldite). There is a significant geothermal deposit owned by Vulcan Energy (quoted on the Australian Exchange) in the upper Rhine Valley in Germany. This is regarded as being carbon neutral but there are concerns about excavation causing geological disturbance.
EMH is working with CEZ, who have 51% ownership of the Cinovec deposit. CEZ is a mining/power company 70% owned by the Czech State. EMH has contracted SMS, a German mining consultancy. ZNWD has major support from the College of Mining at Freiburg-im-Breisgau. ZNWD has a strong management team, led by Anton du Plessis, who are particularly well connected with financial institutions.
I hold shares in both ZNWD and EMH (200,000 and 280,000 shares, respectively) and very much look forward to the co-ordinated development of these deposits as the EU pursues its plan to secure its home-grown Lithium resources.
Good luck everybody and wishing health and prosperity to all.
AJP08, Chilting, Thordon and others: Thank you all for your committed interest in, and support of ITX. In my view, as has been said by several of you, this share is very over-sold. I am content (thanks to the excellent research and dedication of several of you) to be patient, believing that this is no blue-sky speculation, but a solid business in a place of growing global demand and expanding sales to meet badly needed ecological needs.
I quietly expect a gradual re-rating, which I hope will draw in additional serious investors who can see the potential here. If there's any further turbulence, I'm very ready and willing to purchase more. Good wishes to everyone and thanks again for such insightful contributions to the BB. Happy Christmas!
IP Group's modus operandi has typically been to support worthy companies until they can stand on their own two feet. Thus, it is a positive signal that IP Group is selling down and very positive that Harwood Capital has picked up their shares. I have been in TRX a long time and was lucky to pick up a good tranche of shares at the very discounted price of 0.25 pence through PrimaryBid.
The story on TRX has been long and arduous, with many twists and turns. As many of you know, TRX was heavily supported by Neil Woodford prior to his melt-down. There have been times of indifferent management, but, I believe that TRX turned the corner many months ago. The Board has kept overheads down and invested in expanding their clean-rooms at their San Antonio, Texas, plant. Their range of prosthetic medical and dental products is impressive. As a retired surgeon, I very much like their gynaecological implants which offer a vastly better option than the synthetic mesh hitherto made by other manufacturers which has prompted many complaints and law suits in the USA. As most of you know, they have a collaboration with a large US white-label prosthetics manufacturer, which is thought to be Johnson and Johnson.
Covid-19 has delayed their progress considerably, but TRX has attracted Federal Covid subsidies. Smith and Nephew are reporting an accelerating return to elective surgery and TRX is in a very good position to capitalise on this return to more normal surgical procedures.
Richard Griffiths and Lombard Odier remain fairly staunch investors. Some folk may be put off by the just over 7 Billion shares in issue, but I anticipate a consolidation at some point in the future. I am quietly optimistic that we have a little gem here which is close to bearing much fruit. Very good luck to all long-holders.
@nav21 and others: New here too and have today bought much the same as you, nav21. Thanks to you all for quality posts. Although we've had some retracements, I look out for companies where the chart shows a staircase-like progression. Fundamentals are looking encouraging. I have contacts in Ghana and have respect for the probity of the government there, which is crucial given the notoriety of some African administrations. Lithium concentrates compare very favourably with the large European spodumene deposits at Cinovec (EMH and ZNWD). In inflationary times, I like the idea of a gold hedge. Management looks competent and Piedmont are no fools. Balanced risk assessment makes purchases at sub-19 pence look sensible. GLA.
I see no direct competition between the Grail technology and Parsortix. They are synergistic in the sense that expanded cell-free-DNA and circulating-tumour-DNA (cf-DNA and ct-DNA) screening will open up further larger-scale opportunities for Parsortix use. Parsortix will be regarded as a down-stream complement to early cancer diagnosis. It is encouraging that Parsortix is already in research-play for all of: breast, ovarian, colo-rectal, melanoma, prostate, glioblastoma, renal-cell, small-cell and non small-cell lung and head-and-neck cancers.
As has been mentioned many times, the absolutely crucial advantages of Parsortix use include:
1) Whole Circulating Tumour Cell (CTC) capture with potential for enrichment, detailed characterization and ability to culture cells.
2) Potential for examining CTC clusters (combination with neutrophils). These clusters are correlated with enhanced tumour spread (metastasis).
3) Solid tumours are heterogeneous- the genetic coding varies across the tumour. Parsortix can capture these variations.
4) The phenotype of the primary tumour may change when spread occurs (eg: in breast cancer, primary may go from HER-2 negative to HER-2 positive). Parsortix can capture these changes.
5) Parsortix will play a crucial part in tailoring of personalised cancer treatment from the outset and subsequently (longitudinal tailoring). Longitudinal capture of CTCs by Parsortix allows culture in vitro and in animal studies to monitor efficacy of chemotherapeutic drugs.
6) There is only one FDA approved CTC collection technology. This is CellSearch, approved for metastatic breast, colo-rectal and prostate cancers. This technology relies on immunomagnetic bead-based separation.
7) Parsortix is designed to align with the expanding concept of precision oncology.
8) The technology companies which have already declared interest in precision oncology include: Invitek, Guardant Health, Inivata, Illumina, Abbott, Precision Med Inc., Thermo-Fisher Scientific, Exact Sciences. All the pharma majors will be watching this space very carefully.
Please DYOR. Personally, I am fully committed to AGL. Good luck all LTHs!
@Ophidian: Good to see you over here on the AGL board. I think you know that I have always valued your scientific knowledge. Also, you were bang on the money in your recent prediction of an upward reversal at 103 pence. We would value any specific insights you may have regarding the science and regulatory regime.
I've been here a long time and, having met Andrew Newland and participated in the 90 minute long interrogation we gave the Board at the AGM in October 2019, I am very impressed. Apart from the serious reversal down to 39 pence, which was almost entirely due to Jupiter having to raise cash following their disastrous shorting of Tesla, the investment case has been straightforward.
Newland has share options at £4.00, but has never mooted £8.00. He and other Board members have a target market cap of c. £5 Billion, which, with the present share issue, would be north of £20.00. Newland has stated very clearly that he is not in the least interested in an early buy-out, but prefers non-exclusive collaborations with the US majors.
Holding firmly and anticipating that, if FDA approval is secured and collaborations expanded, there would be considerable dividend potential in due course. Exciting to be involved in a brilliant invention (George Hvichia is principal inventor) with so much potential for saving lives. Good luck to all LTHs.
@Crocqman: I lost faith in Jupiter when they shorted Tesla. They made a considerable loss which resulted in they having to sell down a number of decent long positions, which included AGL in whom remain heavily invested. Jupiter dragged AGL down to a low of 38.5 pence; AGL has recovered to 120 pence.
Please don't tell me the investment industry is straight. Have a look at the ADVFN board for ITX in whom I am also a LTH. Look for @quantas01: he/she has just lost their job with a City hedge-fund. The revenge is served hot but is perfectly clear, and I quote:
"There's a team of 4 of us........... Our job is to hit this board daily with FUD posts to mislead investors and influence them to sell their shares."
Declaration: holding absolutely firm on AVCT; indeed, have added.
Nil Barstardum Carborundum. GLA.
@JoeSoap1: Well spotted! Your link to the "Nature Communications" article is very interesting. Brief summary:
* Article written by scientists at Leeds University. One writer (Matthew Johnson) is employed by AVCT.
* Article explores use of Affimers to inhibit proteins calls RAS.
* RAS is a super-family of proteins which regulate switching on of genes for cell growth and differentiation.
* Three genes, HRAS, KRAS and NRAS, are the most common oncogenes in human cancer. Mutations may permanently activate RAS and are found in 20-25% of all human tumours and in 90% of specific tumours such as pancreatic cancer.
* K6 Affimer can bind and inhibit difficult-to-drug proteins; can also probe drugable pockets on such proteins.
*K3 Affimer shown to interact with SII-derived pocket of KRAS, which suggests that targeting this region is strong approach for inhibition of RAS, an exciting avenue to be explored in future studies.
* Conclusion, quote: "This highlights the ability of Affimer proteins to select conformers of target proteins and reveal drugable regions on protein surfaces concurrent with pharmacophore identification."
* In simpler language: Affimers shown to be able to probe sites on the RAS proteins and can therefore assist in the identification of drug molecules which may be able to beneficially modify the gene-switching pathway, mutant versions of which can lead to abnormal cell growth/ differentiation leading to cancer formation.
@GAZALA69: Yes, I've just had confirmation from a retired medical colleague that families/groups who require the ten-day isolation may be divided into two groups. One group undergoes the ten-day isolation with one final PCR test; the other group performs an LFT every day which, if negative, allows them to not isolate for 24 hours. This scheme has definitely already commenced.
HMG is being extraordinarily obfuscatory and I cannot help but think that there is a degree of malign intent from the likes of Dido Harding and her husband, John Penrose. Whilst I have no faith whatsoever in BJ and MH to execute a competent and above-board testing campaign, it is possible that someone like Michael Gove could make a difference here. He is both intelligent and pragmatic enough to get the plot that a comprehensive and high quality LFT roll-out could dramatically alleviate the isolation issue. The ramifications of such a roll-out would be considerable and would open up several domains of commercial/economic/international travel activity.
We're in the lap of some very inferior gods here and we cannot yet rely on intelligent and decent practice from HMG. Monday's Q and A webinar may reveal some of AS' frustrations. Holding firm. GLA.
@wyndrum: Surely rapid, high quality LFD testing will have a significant role in the medium term? Worth considering the following over the next twelve months:
1) Incidence ^ as international travel ^.
2) Propensity for new mutations. Trend has been for ^ infectiousness.
3) Booster (third dose) vaccination almost certainly required late Autumn/Winter.
3) Challenge of discerning between Covid and seasonal influenzas late Autumn/Winter.
Reading the smoke-signals, I do sense that HMG has now got the plot. EUA for Innova collapses June 22nd. HMG aware that sovereign testing industry vital for the medium and long-term future. With the critique of Innova now becoming mainstream, it would be unforgivable for HMG to fail in what will be a much needed continuation of testing, but this time with high grade sovereign LFDs, which HMG can grandstand as part of BJ's showmanship. As I have said before, HMG's simplistic messaging will change in the very near future from an emphasis on vaccination to an emphasis on testing.
All to play for IMO and saddened that some investors here cannot see either the bigger or longer picture. Have held firm and will continue to do so. As an aside, it is very obvious that the MMs have played us and are raking it in. On one of the dips, I tried to buy. Could buy one share, but not ten, let alone one thousand. GLA.
JS to Nomad: "We'd like to raise some cash for developing further capacity and to expand our development of plastic and absorbent paper products."
Nomad to JS: " No problem. We'll talk with our MMs. We know how solid your Company is. We've already got IP Group and other IIs who will support, but we'll need to get the SP down to sensible levels. The private punters are enthusiastic and have pushed the SP. We think 12 pence-ish for a placing. You issue a luke-warm Trading Update, just like you did on January 26th. Don't mention the most exciting prospects and put one or two negatives in. We'll get the MMs to do a tree-shake; that'll flush out weak hands and trigger stop-losses. The smart PIs will know what a great Company you are and will stick with you. The smart money will realise that it's much better that you are seen to go for smallish cash calls, not heavily discounted, especially when they see the SP rise after the tree-shake day. Happy?"
JS to Nomad: "Sounds good, thank you."
Nomad to JS: "The MMs will want to make some good money on this. They know that from the Technical Analysis point-of-view, with the unfilled gap-up through resistance and the SP's solid performance since, we're looking at 25 pence and then 40 pence over the next 18 to 24 months. You'll have no problem raising cash in the future."
Pure fantasy on my part, of course. My 3.5M golden tickets not going anywhere. GLA!