Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
travel_light: The University of Oxford/Office of National Statistics survey test is PCR evaluated at one of the Lighthouse Labs. It is self-administered and involves swabbing one's throat and then deep nose (strictly in that order). One then breaks the plastic swab-stick at a notch and puts the remnant (stick plus swab) into a small screw-top test-tube which contains a buffer solution. Bar-code specific to person then applied to sealed test-tube.
Thus, it would appear that one buffer solution is compatible with both throat (which would contain saliva) and nasal sites. I have asked the question before as to what tweaks would be required to the buffer solution if a change was made from saliva to anterior nasal. Possibly minimal, but Monkshood et al may be able to provide advice here?
Why could not the Avacta LFD similarly test both body sites? Possible that the swab, once it has sampled both throat and anterior nose, be swirled in a given volume of buffer solution and then withdrawn and dabbed onto the LFD platform?
Thanks to posters for useful posts today.
From a posting on the EMH board: Link to an announcement from Vulcan Energy, quoted on the Australian Exchange. Vulcan have a geothermal brine deposit in the upper Rhine Valley in Germany.
Apparently, the EU has issued rulings as follows:
From 1/1/26- Lithium ion batteries will have to bear a carbon intensity performance class label.
From 1/7/27- Batteries must comply with maximum carbon footprint thresholds. The EU will ban batteries not meeting new
regulations.
There is a comment from Maros Sefcovic (EU Commission Vice-President) to the effect that this EU ruling will have an immediate Lithium market impact.
Also a quote from EU Commissioner Thierry Breton: "We are 100% dependent on Lithium imports. The EU, if finding the right environmental approach, will be self-sufficient in a few years, using its resources."
Dhanteras: Very valid point. But, I do think there's going to be very serious political pressure here. We're talking about the survival of the German automobile industry and the credentials of the paymaster of the EU as a major player in climate change positioning.
As an aside, there are four people whose opinions are respected regarding the Lithium market: Howard Klein, Rodney Hooper, Joe Lowry and Gerrit Fuelling. In a recent podcast, Rodney Hooper cited the specific example of VW exploring the idea of a fully integrated Lithium strategy: ie, from upstream Lithium mining right through to rollout of battery products in their vehicles. (Remember Henry Ford and his purchase of rubber plantations to secure rubber supply for tyres!). VW and BMW already have off-take agreements with Genfang, the Chinese major, but these rely heavily on spodumene mining in Australia. There are some serious tensions between China and Australia and the supply chains are very extended. For the Germans in particular, securing Lithium supply will become existential economically. It is interesting to note that Daimler Benz has been slow to move.
The heavy hand of national politics will, I think, become more obvious and I anticipate that Solar World's administrators will be forced to buckle. My guess is that the Germans will do a Mario Draghi- "whatever it takes !" From my prior comment, just look at the rescue package the German State has advanced to both TUI and Lufthansa.
Time will tell and I still would argue that the fate of the 50% Solar World rights are a win-win for ZNWD. GLA.
Lazygun: Have very much appreciated your posts here and on the ADVFN board. To me, the fate of the 50% still owned by Solar World is a win-win for ZNWD. Solar World's administrators have a fiduciary duty to get the best possible price. If there's an auction, so be it. That would attract a spotlight to the Zinnwald project. If ZNWD can win it- superb, even though that might mean a cash-call. Du Plessis is very financially sophisticated and he will not miss any tricks.
OK, let's say that the 50% goes to another interested party. The German govt will already be all over this. With a leader as smart as Angela Merkel (she holds a Ph.D. in quantum chemistry, so she completely understands the science)) and their automobile industry so vital to the German economy, they will never let that 50% fall into idle hands.
Let's look at a comparable situation with EMH. They hold 49% of the rights to the Cinovec project on the Northern Czech border. The other 51% is held by CEZ, which is itself 70% owned by the Czech State. CEZ are selling off other assets to build a war-chest to develop Cinovec. Thus, it could actually be to ZNWD's advantage if the Solar World 50% went to a serious bidder who had the funds to develop Zinnwald. Only owning 49% of Cinovec hasn't stopped the EMH SP trebling in six months!!
A major point here is about resource security and Lithium is now on the EU hit-list as a vital strategic metal. The EU now factor in the environmentally negative issue of long supply-lines, and there's always political fragility in the EU's relationship with Chinese processors. The USA will be greedy for any Lithium it can source from its own Continent, plus Mexico (clay deposits), Chile (brine deposits), etc. The additional positive wild-card for Europe is Tesla and its Berlin Giga-factory. Where on earth are they going to get their Lithium from??
Rio Tinto has a Lithium Borate project in Jadar, Serbia, but, apart from the SAV project in Portugal, a small project in Spain and the small project in Cornwall, England, Cinovec and Zinnwald are the stand-out European projects. Inevitably, even this combination will prove insufficient and outreach to the Ironbridge Resources (IRR) deposit in Ghana, West Africa, and others will have to come into play for the Europeans.
Whilst EMH has an advantage over ZNWD over Tin deposits, ZNWD have already calculated a potential 32,000 tons per annum of Potassium Sulphate for fertilizer and also aggregate tailings for the building industry.
Good luck all and keep safe.
Tiptree: It's been interesting watching the quite slow response to the Lithium super-cycle. ZNWD, as EMH was before it, has been somewhat under the radar. SAV picking up today, but I'm concerned that there is local Portugese opposition to what will have to be an open-cast Lithium mine. Cinovec (EMH) and Zinnwald/Falkenhain/Altenberg(ZNWD) are both underground operations. Yes, CAPEX is higher, but, with high sensitivity to environmental disturbance in the EU, and likely local support owing to both Cinovec/Zinnwald having a mining history, my money is very much on Cinovec/Zinnwald.
I do believe that Anton du Plessis is a very savvy manager, with strong links to the Banking houses. He has the legacy mining engineering team very much in support. There will be synergies between Cinovec and Zinnwald. I believe that Germany is going to feel more and more exposed to the Lithium supply crisis and the German government will do everything in its power to support its automobile brands. You only have to see how powerfully the German govt has stepped in to rescue TUI. Germany's top brands are badges of pride.
Declaration: Long ZNWD and EMH. GLA.
TILS39: Super news from India. I have been keeping a watchful eye on this situation. So good to know that Narendra Modi is very wised-up about the vaccine programme. Good to know that the ODX marketing Team is situated in Pune and so is one of the AstraZeneca plants. As I indicated in a prior posting, I am hopeful that AZN and ODX form a collaboration in India for a joint roll-out of AB testing and vaccine, significant as the ODX LFT technology is particularly well adapted to the AZN/Oxford product. Perhaps this adaption should come as no surprise as both ODX and AZN have laboratories in Cambridge, UK.
Colin King may not be a media-star, and he certainly does not overpromise. I value his quiet, thoughtful and joined-up intelligence! GLA and keep safe.
Scardey_cat and PL75: Good posts from earlier today, thank you ref. differing use of saliva vs nasal. I've always worried a bit about the potential clumsiness of a saliva test. It would need a little funnel, a test-tube of buffer solution and presumably some way of adding a specified volume of saliva to the buffer. It would be quite difficult to administer to some elderly folk, particularly if they sadly suffer from dementia. Also, children might be a problem. In addition, a saliva test might be easy to scam by drinking hot/cold drink beforehand if a negative result is required for access to office/shop/sports/aeroplane/whatever.
I, too, sense the strong hand of a hitherto very disorganised government. The partial shift to nasal swabs clearly has its virtues. The unanswered question for me is what re-jigging of AVCT's LFD is required. Will it use the same nitro-cellulose-based paper-insert? Will a reformulation of the buffer solution be required? I can quite understand AS looking exasperated when answering questions about this partial shift to nasal swab.
The government's appointment of Dido Harding as the Test and Trace Tsarina has been an unmitigated disaster. Why, oh, why did they not appoint a really smart person like Sir Paul Nurse, Director of the Francis Crick Institute. He understands the science, knows all the right people to give qualified answers and he would talk the same language as the dedicated scientists like AS. Harding's utter incompetence has cost hundreds of lives and caused unnecessary delay in the roll-out of rapid antigen testing, which was so obviously absolutely critical in any coherent Test and Trace programme.
Anyway, let us hope that government will not hold up this process any longer. GLA and stay safe.
Merchantbanker, JAdam, Satallite, FigTreeHarry: Thanks for your encouraging contributions, especially you, Merchantbanker, for your well thought-out investment case.
I have factored into my equation the possibility that the charities to whom Richard Sneller gifted his shares may, owing to a shortfall in their income, be sellers. I am not in the least bit perturbed by the SP volatility. The potential of this Company will be recognised eventually.
ErrHum: I spotted the Immunodiagnostics (IDS) RNS today (their shares on a roll) and the fact that ODX manufacture the allergens for IDS' allergy testing. IDS have just announced a new Covid-19 antigen test.
Pleased to know that Narendra Modi, PM of India, is visiting one of the AstraZeneca plants in India tomorrow, 28th, to make his own evaluation of the upcoming AZN/Oxford vaccine. From prior Press-releases, India has heralded the AZN/Oxford vaccine as to its liking. I understand that ODX has a marketing team in India. With ODX's AB test particularly well adapted to this vaccine, could we see a collaboration between ODX and AZN for a simultaneous roll-out of AB testing/vaccine in India?
Bought ODX quite heavily late this afternoon. GLA and keep safe.
Monkshood: Always grateful to you for your expert input. Thank you. May I ask what modifications, and likely time-span, are required to develop a medium into which the nasal swab sample is dissolved, prior to dispensing the medium onto the lateral-flow strip?
Such media are already in use for the well established naso-pharyngeal swabs taken for PCR testing. But, I am assuming that the use of Affimers requires the development of a new version of the fluid medium.
Any help here would be much appreciated. Thank you.
Upomega: Thank you for your kind words. It is the anecdotal stories of the suffering that move me most. I cannot even begin to imagine what it must be like for the 8-year old little boy who lost his Mum. She was fit, spoken of as "the life and soul of the party", had no pre-morbidities. She felt grotty, went to bed and just didn't wake up. This ugly disease is that capricious.
Upomega: A very fair point. The Government is under huge pressure to be seen to make a good fist of the vaccine roll-out, its Test and Trace system being what I reluctantly perceive to be shambolic. There are still major questions regarding the efficacy of vaccines as measured by AB titres, and, crucially, the longevity of the ABs. If the Govt. abides by the best epidemiological advice, it will seek to have all inoculated persons re-tested for ABs at intervals. The larger the cohort of tested people, the more valid the results, particularly where there are huge questions about how AB longevity varies by age-group and ethnicity. Given the shortfall in trust between people and Govt., the Govt will, I believe, do its utmost to retest as many people as are willing.
I should also point out that AB titres are less informative in the very young, who appear to mount a very good immune response through the T-Cell system. It will be very interesting to see what the figures eventually show. Again, with this uncertainty, large cohorts will be critical for establishing veracity. At the moment, the older age-groups are deemed more vulnerable and it is they who are largely getting (very sadly) sick and needing hospitalisation. Government efforts will be heavily directed towards those more at risk.
The Govt. has made a clear priority of supporting the NHS and rightly so. The clamour from the many, many thousands of good folk who are suffering from non-Covid conditions will increase. The Govt. has got to get the vaccination programme right and I implore all of you to consider having a vaccine. Anyone with any sense of community will, I hope, respond. I know too many good folk who have died, including most tragically a young mum in her 40s who leaves an orphaned 8-year old son, and several with long Covid. We are at our best when we consider others among the appalling suffering that this disease is causing. Surely, we all want to see the high-street back, the sporting fixtures, businesses, offices, public transport, families back with their loved ones? Can we come together in our collective hour of need? I desperately hope so. Keep safe.
Silles: Totally agree and you have summed it up in a few short statements.
1)The UK government will require substantial LFT antibody testing capacity for the governance of the vaccine roll-out.
2) Roll-out of the vaccine will require pre-vaccine AB testing, repeated to monitor efficacy of vaccine, post-inoculation.
3) Vaccines have to be administered by health professionals. Ideal, then, to have high quality LFT AB tests which professionals are trained to "read".
4) Absolutely crucial that there is joined-up data collection for the AB testing and vaccine administration. This is not a problem if AB testing and vaccine administration is tied to person-specific bar-coding, overseen by health professionals. The Oxford Uni./ONS survey already has this data feature.
5) Possible that antigen testing may be deemed a part of the pre-vaccine screening. Colin King has already catered for flexibility regarding AB/antigen testing capacity.
6) The AZN/Oxford Jenner Inst. vaccine is said to be quite cheap, c. £20 per shot. The high quality blood-draw AB testing currently performed for the Oxford/ONS survey (S/S= 99%/99%) is expensive and results take days. The govt. will seek a streamlined, data-co-ordinated, sensibly priced, professionally administered system for vaccine roll-out
Where do they go for that ?
Declaration: Retired medic; also part of the Oxford/ONS survey. Holding long. GLA and keep safe.
Privinvest: I do believe that there will be some synergies sought between Cinovec and Zinnwald. Cinovec is more replete with Tin, but both have supplementary capacities for Potassium Sulphate as a fertiliser and aggregate tailings for the building industry. With their serious prior mining/power experience and Czech Government backing, CEZ are in a superb position to maximise Cinovec. Germany will get envious, me thinks! GLA.
In my view, the shortfall in coping with Covid-19 has NOTHING to do with the incredibly hard-working health staff, nor the feverish attempts by British scientists to refine their testing technologies. Press coverage of the immensely complicated issues surrounding Covid-19 is often ignorant and piecemeal and sound-bite driven.
Understanding by our politicians has been superficial. There are only two members of the Cabinet with science qualifications and neither of those is in the biological sciences. The appointment of Baroness Harding to be the Test and Trace Tsar was very ill-judged. Let us hope that Kate Bingham, the vaccine Tsar, is not another damp squib- at least she has a degree in Biochemistry.
Bingham needs to qualify her comments about the efficacy of the influenza vaccines. The choice of the content of a 'flu vaccine (often adapted to cover more than one specific 'flu strain) is based on a guess as to what 'flu strains are likely to come round as we approach winter. Her quote of 50% efficacy is thus NOT comparable to the Covid-19 vaccines which are absolutely specific. The vast majority of 'flu viruses are categorized under the H/N scheme (the appalling pandemic of 1918-1919 was an H1/N1), which are very different from the Coronaviruses.
No, we don't know how long antibodies persist after Covid-19 infection and how this antibody durability varies with age. It appears likely that, in children and young people, the principal immunity may be through the T-Cell system. Certainly, in one long-range study of known victims of the SARS-Cov-1 infection in the Far-East in 2003, the T-Cell system was still providing immunity 17 years later, with cross-over to the present SARS-Cov-2 virus.
So, there are many unknowns about the SARS (stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)-Cov-2 virus. It is remarkable that there are several anti-SARS-Cov-2 vaccines in Phase III trials. The US/European effort has been championed by the likes of Pfizer/Biontech, AstraZeneca/Jenner Institute, GSK/Sanofi, Johnson and Johnson. These are all hugely competent mega-pharmas and we may look forward to this dreadful virus being contained.
The known-unknown of antibody durability invoked by vaccines can only be answered by repeated antibody testing with person-specific coding and integrated data collection. ODX is well positioned and may well have out-reach to other countries such as India. Holding long here and quite prepared to be patient. GLA.
StarBright, Ton1c and others: Thank you for your important insights. My impression is that this Government needs to "Command and Control". The Epidemiologists who drive policy would, rightly, demand that every test is linked to a co-ordinated data-base. Any RTC roll-out will be heavily governanced to maximize authenticity and traceability of testing.
Any vaccine has to be administered by a health professional. This provides an ideal environment for professional pre-testing for Covid-19 status, then professional follow-up for booster dose, etc. The University of Oxford/Office of National Statistics survey tracks both its weekly antigen (naso-pharyngeal swab) and monthly blood-draw antibody testing through the simple expedient of a person-specific bar-code. Each visit is conducted by a health professional (in my experience extremely competent), who repeats a questionnaire each time. The antibody test is declared to have an S/S of 99%/99%. The antigen testing is by PCR.
The Government has appeared to be behind the curve on Test and Trace. There is no way that they will roll-out something as important and potentially game-changing as a vaccine without the highest level of data control. It is probably true to say that they don't trust the public and it is no surprise to me that they have recruited the armed forces to be a visible "arm of the State" in the Liverpool and now further-afield naso-pharyngeal LFT antigen testing.
ODX's recent SP collapse was, in my view, completely bonkers. Vaccines means repeated antibody testing. I believe that the logistical challenges will demand professionally supervised finger-prick antibody testing with person-specific bar-coding which can be carried through to the further testing and vaccine booster(s) required. ODX appears to me to be in a very good Government-led position, here. ODX's LFT antigen test may well have a place, too, in the required co-ordinated roll-out of any vaccine.
Rpks: Thanks so very much for your very clear and insightful local knowledge. This is really, really important. This Board is exceptional in the quality and frequency of informative posts from many posters. Thank you all so much.
Fingers: As you know, I have always appreciated your intense dedication to informing us. A big thank you!
The human-rights and sustainability issues are already becoming major factors. Rio Tinto was, as you know, heavily criticised for blowing up a sacred Aboriginal site in Australia. With a Biden Presidency and an EU already committed to climate change challenges and a World now anxious to limit extended supply-chains, EMH is sitting in a very good place.
Although more expensive to mine, both Cinovec and Zinnwald will be mined underground with consequent reduction in contamination and above-ground despoiling. Savannah's Portugese project is open-cast and I understand there is, unlike Cinovec, local opposition. It will be very interesting to see how Bacanora fare with Sonora in Mexico, given that there are issues with water and energy husbandry there. Biden appears to oppose fracking on Federal land and I wonder what attitude his administration will take to open-cast mining in the USA. Am I right in thinking that the acreage Elon Musk identified in the USA is Federal land?
Anyway, immensely positive about EMH. CEZ appear to be building a war-chest through disposals. US investors now taking an interest in EMH. Czech listing imminent. Talk of a lithium super-cycle over the next ten to twenty years. GLA!