Avacta is poised7 Nov 2023 07:12
From RAH on X this morning.
#AVCT is poised.
Pharma is a hive of activity right now and we have a repeat, size buyer systematically taking stock, rendering Heights redundant.
The climate is such that Point’s largest holder is now opposing the Eli Lilly deal as they believe it undervalues them:
seekingalpha.com/news/4031202-p…
As we saw recently, this Point deal had THREE interested suitors. It is possible a rival bid now comes in and/or more shareholders oppose the transaction.
[Reminder: retail control @avacta]
Then there’s Merck and Prometheus.
On 6 Dec 2022 - Prometheus released results of two P2 (12-week) studies
Their SP went from $36 > $117 in a day.
Off the back of this data they raised $500m (Dec 22).
Just four months after that raise (Apr 2023) they were bought out for $10.8Bn ($193 per share).
How many interested suitors were there in this $10.8Bn deal?
FIFTEEN.
x.com/paras_biotech/…
What was so attractive to these 15 rivals?
An estimated $3Bn sales per year to be achieved in 2030.
Harnessing Dox is a far more valuable target than each of these and it comes far sooner than 2030. Plus we have proven a platform which underpins it all.
If there were FIFTEEN parties vying for est sales of $3Bn in 2030 and willing to pay $10.8Bn for that privilege, what on earth is a platform which could displace ADCs worth?
On top of all this, the MSCI Small Cap rebalance is due to take place shortly.
When AVCT dropped out a year ago, it registered 20x avg daily volume in a single session (during an auction which was meant to last 5 minutes, but was extended for over an hour). What will that do to a stock which is already seeing increased volume combined with a systematic buyer?
Expecting the SP to get a real shift on over the coming sessions; ATHs more than justified on release of PK.
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