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I reckon this share is currently discounting the actual receipt of the GoI money by 30p or so - therefore put me in for 245p on a tender offer price by the Company and that is where I will be happy to tender some / most of shares perhaps keeping some shares in Capricorn to roll in order to keep some exposure to their Egypt gas/oil (particularly given the recent positive update on Egypt and the likely ongoing shortage of gas in Europe).
Can anyone remember why these shares are suspended in the first place - would be a lot easier if they weren’t and Lekan could then simply buy whatever shares he wants at 1.9p from the free float. Is it the Board who don’t want the shares unsuspended?
It is all very frustrating but the wheels of justice grind slowly particularly at this time of year / covid raging and more patience is needed. However, I reckon we will see a bounce up to 225-250p when (if) the money from the GoI has been received (but just my uneducated guess so make your own minds up).
The offer doc looks credible and I would be surprised if they can’t fund the offer as it is not a huge amount of money in the context of the value of the assets. It will be interesting to hear what the Lekoil plc Board & Senior Executive has to say about the Lekoil Nigeria offer and also to see how they respond and their broad approach i.e. engage in a negotiation on behalf of shareholders or look out for themselves. I can’t listen in to the AGM next week but would be interested to get a summary on this board from anyone dialling in.
The more I think about this the more I feel that eliminating a layer of cost at the plc level is in most people’s interest and if Lekan and his friends had a bigger stake in the economics, then maybe they would be less inclined to strip-out economics at the Lekoil Nigeria level prior to those economics reaching Lekoil plc level and ultimately to the shareholders of Lekoil plc. The underlying oil assets have significant value - but question the ability to monetise for the general benefit of Lekoil plc shareholders.
Quietly confident that the Board and Management will get this done in due course. When, who knows! However, in the meantime, the Company continues to buy back its own shares from shortsighted sellers which is just enhancing the value per share for all remaining holders if you believe the value is in the 200s (or even 300s) which I do. So nothing much one can do but sit and wait for the GoI to finalise a deal.
Anyone got a view on inherent/intrinsic value of Centrica against the background of rising gas/electricity prices? Debt free, albeit a pension deficit overhang but current significant free cash flow generation vs market cap with producing gas assets which must have gone up in value in recent weeks/months, a renewable energy business, an energy supply business, etc all historically badly managed by HQ / plc management. Any views as I am somewhat surprised that the share price has not risen more post sale of Direct Energy?
I have about GBP200k invested here in CNE - I couldn’t understand how/why it went down to 122 and why this is not above at least 200. I guess the market is still sceptical that the GoI will pay up. We shall see but this weeks news has to be a very good sign
Promising but be careful - all depends on whether or not Lekoil Cayman ([LC]and Metallon) has leverage/control into Lekoil Nigeria against the background of a less than robust legal environment in Nigeria and Nigerian sponsors who have not been as transparent as they ought to be about the distribution and control of the economics. If LC does have some leverage, fill your boots, if they don't this is going nowhere/back down - mind you, possibly worth hanging around to find out and perhaps yesterdays/todays share price rise is evidence of either that Metallon have acquired an element of legal control or some negotiated accommodation between the parties has been reached - BUT as always DYOR
I’m not focused too much on the fundamentals as am not sure this business has a future as a listed entity. Subscale manufacturer of a niche product appealing to the top 0.1% with wealth sufficient to buy a >GBP100k car! Enough liquidity in this business post-rights issue to give Stroll consortium enough time to round up a few more rich dudes to come up with the GBP500 - 1,000m or so he will need to take us all out.
Very interesting comments but shouldn’t there be more focus on the end game - i.e. at what price the Stroll Consortium investors will be forced to pay to take this private. Got to be in their interest to have this go as low as possible without tarnishing the brand but recognising that if it goes too low than a risk of a competing offer? BTW - I lost a bit on the way down last week clearly going in too early but got out at a small loss but back in today at 34 hopeful that the brand has enough value to see it through to a take private transaction and delist at a “fair” price (whatever that is).
Could anyone help me on this one - how much of Union Bank (UB) does ATMA own, is it 25% or 50%?
M/C of UB is currently c$570m so 50% is $285m with ATMA trading at a current M/C of $190m.
Other than pricing in the prospect of high future ATMA HoldCo overhead and running costs, any reason why current value of ATMA is at such a significant discount to current UB market cap? (Without taking into account any value for the non-UB shares owned by ATMA). Any guidance appreciated and apologies if my maths is wrong or I am missing something
IEH is probably Inter-Energy Holdings Limited. www.interenergy.com. who own the other 50% of EdS. You could probably classify them as a knowledgeable and smart buyer. They own and operate various power plants in LatAm. Remember, that Rurelec plc has a loan into EdS (which probably ranks ahead of equity). So essentially, this will all be all about price / value that the Sterling Trust administrators consider is a reasonable offer otherwise they will stick and continue to rank ahead of IEH on the cash flow waterfall out of EdS as and when EdS has cash to distribute although I expect IEH have been holding the cash hostage locked up in EdS and to try and create a stalemate situation and were hoping that Rurelec would go bust first and thaen they can pick up the pieces for not much. How PE fits in difficult to tell. But the news today suggests that this sorry story is probably finally nearing a conclusion. I am a LTH of this share and have lived with this investment mistake for over 6 years now. I for one will learn from the experience. Probably recent NAV of 5p +/- 20% would be a reasonable place to call it a day but decide for yourselves. .
Kamel17 - good to see some seasonal spirit in your recent post. That said, I concur with the general tone of your many posts as this share has proved to be a complete let-down and not all of that is attributable to the Bolivian expropriation and the underwhelming settlement. I would suggest that most of the poor run we have experienced is down to pure mismanagement, incompetence, greed and carrying a high overhead cost base which has under-delivered any meaningful projects for which it purports to have worked on. Much spurious upside talk from many on this board with little based on hard evidence or fact. Forget about Peru (immaterial in size) and Chile (the likelihood of the projects ever being delivered looks increasingly unlikely - perhaps the turbines have some value but perhaps they are just rusting somewhere and their re-transport value is higher than their value as turbines or scrap metal value). and focus on Argentina. According to the last interim update, Rurelec owns £38.9m of investments in, and loans, to EdS - EdS is generating annually about $8-10m of EBITDA (I think the revenues are $ denominated but I may be wrong) with little in the way of third-party debt. So you would have thought that there is some value attributable to Rurelec's ownership in EdS The Argentineans have restricted both payments to EdS for the power it is supplying (so receivables have been building up in EdS and restricted the convertibility of Pesos into dollars so that what cash was yielding was trapped so Rurelec has not been receiving the cash it was relying on to fund its own bloated overhead and with no other source of cash, it has been struggling. The news on Argentina is positive in terms of maybe being able to start getting the cash out but no doubt they will try and re-trade the quantum of the receivables owed to the power sector generators. Also, Rurelec has a 50/50 in EdS so a lot depends on what kind of control and influence the partner is exerting and no doubt they are trying to take advantage of Rurelec's weak position to optimise their own outcome. They way I would do that would be to try and starve Rurelec out until it caves in and accepts a low-ball offer for its investment. Also, one should never discount the potential for fraud in these situations and maybe Rurelec's assets have been collaterilised without that appearing in the accounts. For those of you who can, perhaps hold on and see what happens as difficult to believe the administrators of Sterling will allow this to carry on much further and will want / need to realise the monetary value of Sterling's investment in Rurelec. My bet is that they are already discussing low ball offers from Rurelec's EdS partner and one or two other parties who recognise the turn-around value of buying a cash yielding asset in Argentina in a country with a shortage of power supply from a distressed seller. I believe that this share is worth more than 0.85p - how much more we s
Whilst the increase in value of REH's [6.8%) holding in Carnegie Wave (CW) is encouraging, I calculated it at more like £4m (and of course all on paper until that holding is sold) the CW share price would have to move up considerably more to make a dent on the UtiliCo debt that REH owes £4.25m plus interest. This is a still a bet on the Welsh wind farm getting through planning (end of 2015).
When working out the equity value to compare with the current market cap you will need to deduct the company's existing debts - on an indicative basis, the lender's current debt is more or less covered (and secured on I believe) REH's investment in Carnegie Wave - just thought I would point that out so any reader out there takes that into account. I am a holder here as a binary bet (amongst a number of other binary best I make) on the Welsh project getting planning and financial close. If CWE also proves up its projects than I view that as helpful but most of that current CWE value will go to repay REH's existing lender's debt and interest on that debt. The REH equity is either worth a few or many multiples of its current price or worth nothing. So real gamble on this one.