Member Info for Elsol

At last someone has woken up state side ...its like buying $100 bills for £5 quid a pop..Once P3 is out of the trap that is...every day adds to the probability of the big news arrival.

Here here...I think 'silent' out of the blue product extensions or new major client wins highly probable in 22 with green innovation based ITX products. Let's wait for high level 21 results in a week or two then SP should rise from there...

Polygon strategy - "Our focus is concentrated on structural alpha, the bedrock of opportunity on which strategy is built. That is our primary consideration and everything follows from there." I think SNG have excellent structural alpha!

"We seek to build investment vehicles that leverage our specific areas of expertise and track records. We are focused on investing in areas where there is the opportunity for enduring alpha generation, and on working with groups and individuals that have demonstrated their ability over different business cycles." I think they are just very bullish on SNG and are putting there $$$ where their mouths are.

Interesting thoughts Axe. I'm sure its possible in some way to do this, but if there is some sort of "contract" between a Big Pharma in the hunt for SNG and Polygon would they not have to disclose that in the Polygon's RNS as buying on behalf of a big pharma co.? Any corporate finance guys here to comment? Or are you thinking a gentleman's agreement behind the scenes that Polygon are aware of with certainty of big pharma co. to place a bid at some point in the near future and working together on that basis? Not sure of the legalities but I'm sure "where there is a will there is a legal way" to achieve economic value to both parties so you are right to highlight it.

Hi Andy - re my comment:
1/ "We are above 90% now easily POS". I do actually believe that Im not ramping given all the facts surrounding this R&D project
2/ "Probably 95% certain value will be going up not down in coming weeks". Im thinking here from a valuation perspective because currently our market cap is bug-ger all really in the grand scheme of things so I do realistically believe its about 95% certain we will see a SP uplift soon based on Phase III readout and a 5% chance of SP reduction.
Yes some is based on gut feel on this one as well as 20 years in pharma and professional valuation experience in the sector. You guys can make up your mind though. Good luck all.

We are above 90% now easily POS. Probably 95% certain value will be going up not down in coming weeks. I've been banging on now about this for ages.

Could have been my request for more info on their web page this morning or are they hiding a big party preparation for Friday night?

Well done Russian Bot - this could be a mammoth silent insider intelligence find of this BB

Lets not all ring them they will lock up the information intelligence and wonder whats going on.
Lets see if they respond to my gentle online question first as it will probably go to some junior sales assistant that may well spill the beans. If they dont respond in the next 3-4 hours I'm going to casually ring the sales team to enquire about a discount for that line, to try to fish if its a new order on the web to allow SNG to order 27 bottles...if it is a new order web admin change then we are 99.9% over the line in my opinion to great results.

I've just sent a message to the seller to see if that was a newly introduced sales line during Dec and Jan ..I await eagerly the response.

I think if Citadel mis understood the success probability and adopted 70% as per brokers they may be taking a bet on failure and could seriously pay big time if this flies with 90% + likelihood. my view is the POS is north of 90% now something ready to either see them jump back in quickly or will very probably be incinerated with a stonking loss.

were they buys or sells?

more smoke? this is quite a small company so could well be linked to our manufacturing scale up planning

More broadly looking at the qualitative AND quantitative clinical evidence (maths/stats) at a high-level in the round, SNG001 must have a VERY high probability of being launched successfully at this point in time given the pandemic / endemic situation (say, at least 90%). Also the market cap of only £400m very much seems to imply c.90% chance of failure. In my mind the two facts do not align therefore I still have a very strong view of significant upside to the SP, given where we are today. Very exciting to watch every day here.

:-) I think they mean its 50% undervalued as at 11 Jan 22 but maybe they are right in the extreme of a worse new mutational virus coming along later in 2022 killing at a 30% rate like MERS with high contagion risk?

18 Jan for me

Fantastic thread right there. Well done Mr Crumpet for sharing, I'm now following this guy on Twitter from the Lond School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Spot (but concerning) comments Mr Crumpet - mutations are RANDOM events effecting efficacy of these little bugg**s and are very worrying to mankind given the new and huge ingress of this emerging Covid virus (at critical mass of infections in our population needed to perpetuate themselves in a pool c. 8Bn population of humans).

Great find this Z score subject. Doesn't this possibly reinforce significantly the prior phase II read out (n=100), as some were claiming at the time that the phase II was just a "lucky shot (by chance encounter) in the dark" as a random event. But my point at the time was that n=100 does pass the threshold of statistical significance (SS) based on my understanding of maths and SS thresholds in excess of a threshold sample of around n=30 observations (in fact 3x fold larger in our phase II sample the n= 100 people). Hence why I bought my initial tranche of shares and why I always have been banging on that the success probability of SPRINTER phase III is above 90% not only 70% (at least from the perspective of replicating the results).

Hi Andy - de-risking is the key I agree as you correctly point out, but your rationale given below is completely wrong and totally misleading:
......." To recalibrate before readout. On the condition that SPRINTER is positive, then SNG will fly. So they need to sell some shares now, if SNG flies and SP goes way up, then it doesn’t screw up the ratio of their fund too much."

That statement is absolute rubbish I'm sorry to point out that out. You meant to say that: "Polar are likely to be de-risking pre-phase III SPRINTER readout just in the unlikely event of failure of the trial, then they will be slightly less exposed to SNG downside risk from an overall fund portfolio perspective....please try to re-read your messages before pinging them off as quality is much better than quantity. No bad feeling, just needed to point this out - good luck to you as I know you are a keen investor so have backed the right horse (we hope together).

Hi Manifesto - In future I think vax's will still maintain the bedrock of anti-viral protection for the masses in general and vax version 1,2,3,4,5+, 6++, 7+++ multiplexed versions will become a little akin to the annual flu vax for many people....BUT one will have to wait 6-18 months to vaccinate the whole world for every new dangerous mutated variant coming along (e.g. allowing R&D time to configure them and then scale up, unless of course there is a knockout agnostic vax which may be unlikely in the near future).
Hence there will be a VERY BIG competitive advantage for SYN as you won't need to tweek SNG001 for every variant that comes along and its instantaneously efficacious and safe, albeit much more costly to administer to everyone. SNG001 fits into the "vax mutation treatment gaps" very well and is entirely complementary in that respect and also will be used for other serious hospitalised patients with all manner of other respiratory viruses. Looks promising to me come on phase III readout RNS.