Member Info for Elsol

Warning typo should say 4.25p at lowest SP not £4.25. :-)

That's the lower tax jurisdiction I think

That's probably the estimate on it after Monday blocked federal holiday and weekend

I finally managed to review in detail the Finncap brokers note from their web site dated 10 Jan 22.
Looks quite diligently prepared and well thought through, not over-promising with a 12p target at the end of 2022 based on a mid-case forecast projection. I think the author/broker has been around a while because I recall his name in spec. chem and possibly some pharma broker notes quite a few years ago. He clearly describes the initial Covid related and new launch stock filling effects (high 2020A) that drove the SP up (16p) and then the over-correction in 2021 (to about 4.25p lowest in Dec 21 due to storm damage risk plus de-stocking issue). Illustratively, if you switch the revenues from 2020 & 2021 you get a pretty good view of the back out of the stock effect on revenue in my view year-on-year. The adjusted revenue numbers then flow as shown below, which to me gives an indication on the hypothetical revenue trajectory (2019A-23F Broker) and adjusted longer term % growth rates:
2019A – $1.3m (base year)
2020 Adj. Actual $2.5m (+92%)
2021 Adj. Actual $3.3m (+32%)
2022F $4.7m (+42%)
2023F $7.6m (+62%)
Where I am on value is that there was an overshoot (as we all know) based on 2020A excitement that drove the SP aggressively during H1 21. If this stock swing effect did not occur and you were to normalise/adjust 20/21, then it would have resulted in a much more leisurely share price appreciation over 2021 with no big sell off in H2. I think the lowest SP was reached of around £4.25 that represents the low resistance point (fear sell off / great uncertainty of manufacturing resilience / customer problems) from that creating the big under-shoot (storm damage etc).

Now that that supply de-stocking and manufacturing risk is behind us and the expectation is further growth (diversification and new existing client add-ons coming on stream) and miles of fairly clear road again for 2022/23 with the prospect of a double bagger in 11 months. My gut feel is that this is achievable. The sweetner for me is still the prospect of ‘silent’ on boarding of new contracts for completely new markets and new customers. That’s why I have gradually bought in and it’s a strong hold for me on fundamentals for the next few years and as it is a partial hedge from other non-green economic markets.
The key Broker comments for me are:
“We initiate coverage with a price target of 12p, founded on the confidence that over the next year the group will reach material commercial milestones that will act as catalysts to the shares”
“In the near term, ITX has a potential pipeline of $25m of projects” (obviously a current inside insight from Management to Finncap). Good luck all LTHs for 22/23 its looking good for growth.

I think this is a real possibility actually given the medical market emergency - not to give full colour but the message that its looking good or really good based on purely indicative headlines to date and to prepare for full RNS soon so they can plan accordingly for formal review once full colour RNS of top line data.

RM and the SNG senior team must feel increasingly pressured to release phase III headlines with such a pivotal treatment for hospitalised patients and market need so high, so my guess the RNS is coming out very very soon. I agree Tony, when the key messages are aligned with all the parallel background actions the RNS will surface. They may need a 24 hour switchboard in Soton office if the news is as we expect. I'm sure RM's diary planning looks interesting right now.

Correct ITX is a BIG BARGAIN right now sub 10p Jan 22 for what you get for your dosh (e.g. largely de-risked cashflows/emerging profitability from our green ITX secret additives/enhancements into blue chip clients' products).
The pure aggregated stripped bare 'IP' value must protect downside below 5p IMV since probably at least 2x coverage that has been invested in R&D as a going concern over the years and the IP now has considerable future cashflow value attached to it. ITX is hiding under a bushel so to speak but a steady rise during 2022 surely makes sense as revenues rise and likely a bigger Q1/Q2 performance than normal because the downstream branded companies will want to re-stock up to prevent unusual weather related interruptions on ITX factors on a key feedstock (as a prudent measure for supply chain).

Yes but it wasn't used as a clever direct to lung formulation in the good old 1980s and that's the dosage form that's working here...

I noticed old boy or girl you are an investor in GSK, now looking for your next investment eh? ....well as long as the sale of the consumer division goes through and GSK SP rises handsomely. East isn't it scrape another 2-3% discount on SNG and pump all your profits in under our current valuation. You cunning little fox you. Well you've been uncovered.

To be honest as long as PhIII is average to good (90% probable), we won't need "cash" because we have a patented virus killing machine that produces gold bars. Hehe...if we need dirty folding cash we can just sell some gold. What a joke point from this inept poster...

Compatability is the big big issue. We are a fab one product company right now, most M&A targets have a jewel in the portfolio but diluted with other portfolio stuff. I think SNG SP right now is sitting well under fair value as its hiding under a bushel (USA no awareness). Prob should be nearer £ 1bln pre phase 3. Post. PH 3 if reasonable or good readout day 2 SP looks like £1.5bn minority value minimum then bid premium is a least 100% above that due to scarcity value plus fantastic market attractiveness. That's the starting point for me £3bn then probably double again if no takeover as commercial risk gets unwound on revenue clarity into Feb, March, April.

Look I hope very soon we will be buying each other drinks at the bar to celebrate and overcome all these little spats and misunderstandings.....come RM let's see wot you've got

Yes that's a very interesting Investment for a state based organisation. They have had someone steering them for sure

Sprinter readout that is. Just relax...its coming soon

Brown, steams and comes out of cows backwards?

Answer: the Isle of Wight ferry.
Analogy: it's got to come out eventually!

I think we are all very bored and mentally drained scrutinising this board every 30 minutes and the SP trend every day waiting for the overly expected 7 buses that are over due any moment but not visible in the horizon....image how the Synairgen 'C' suite feel about knowing they can blow the "ydoolb doors off" the covid pan/epidemic and biting their lip until they can reveal all.

Hi Marik,

About 20 years what about you?
Your value range seems a bit broad doesn't it? Have a look for yourself :
Acquisition of Synairgen Marik would see as:
1. <£4Bn very cheap (£20/s)
2. £4-8Bn cheap (£30/s)
3. £8-12Bn reasonable (£50/s)
4. £12-18Bn good (£75/s)
So between £4bn - £18Bn and you missed "very good" outcome - £18Bn-£25Bn! What does that tell you?
Is it predictable or can you forecast it with any precision? You can drive a bus through your value expectations. It a bit like pinning a tail on a donkey Marik. I doubt you have described the value range accurately (hi- low) and could be wider (or narrower). Why do you think the share price have been so volatile in the last few years - risk = uncertainty = SP volatility = difficulty in predicting cashflows => probably higher DCF discount rate? or a specific "technology risk" premia for single asset technology ?

Beware using averages as SNG is NOT an average asset with less risk attached. If I put one hand in hot water and one in ice cold water, on average my hands are okay right?

SNG001 is based on an existing human protein product (1 million BC) not some new NCE or novel structure biologic thats just been synthesized and being now testing in man. There is a wealth of pre-existing clinical evidence here and its got an excellent safety profile and a great P2 and a great upswell of mode of action and immunology science behind it.

Your messages about single asset risk show you guys haven't a clue what I'm talking about....but no need to argue on the matter..its a technical point and unless your working in corporate finance it may be above your heads.

Single asset technology risk! Probably means slightly lowering those ranges a bit but does look fantastic returns still.