Member Info for elir71

@noobz
My gut feeling is the most spectacular assay will come from the now flooded llechfraith lower workings. Its based on the almost snow white esque visible resource at that level. I didn't put that in my val, but I can imagine a very pretty YouTube vid of it this year. Are the veins being exposed in trial trenches going to be bulk sampled. I'm sure it would be feasible with a pecker on it for a couple of hours.

If posp500 works then posp5000 x2 works
Very exciting times

Totally with you on the valuation being dynamic, it is only my stab on what is known today and probable outcomes on what is known today. I'll try to keep it updated when possible though I'm often out of Internet range when at work.

Re block chain, its something I put to the company earlier this month. There's a Welsh company called aurus who do a physical gold backed token, premium gold could also add a bit of spin to it. It also prevents melting down kruggerands to forge Caradogs, or whatever you'd call Welsh gold bullion

@blackshepherd, please read first equity report with it as I've tried not to repeat.

In all fairness the quality of the management does tend to de risk uncertainty to some extent and I have a gut feeling that I have underestimated much of Greenland assets, but I'm trying to rely on documented evidence to temper my enthusiasm. That's the main reason I did the exercise.. to 'ground' my thinking. Though I think Limerick has potential resource value, until I see it I won't put a number on it. I know that sounds all rather dull.

The reason for different valuations for now and 12 months hence is the uncertainty of each step. As uncertainties are overcome through development exploration granting of permissions deals, then the value becomes more certain.

@MineC.. Limerick yes, but at the moment the licence is expired and significant resources have not been found, though that could change with more exploration of course. The only evidence of value is value of neighbours. Hence nada dit

@abouttime. Those trades make encouraging reading. That 56k trade looks like a buy.

@yanis.. 0.7p reflects the position we're in now, or at least my view of it. If you look at amistoq I think that project has much upside. I think it's in there. I value the views of others thank you for reading

I'm hoping that the interventions at hh are sucesfull. It is a bit of a stab, and I'd rather see alba sell it, as I think the cash is better spent elsewhere

I've prepared my thinking as to valuation of Alba at the present time, and in 12 months time (assuming things go ok)
I't shared here

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xxuXY7-LZ-u78JtnD_llFt5vsEBA5eMThJcBj58Ck_g/edit?usp=sharing

There's a link to the spreadsheet with some of the underlying calculations. I expect it will need some ammendment when expected news comes.

As it stands I would value the company fundamentally at 0.70 p with a target price of 2.1p in one year's time assuming that all goes smoothly. It assumes the most effort in Greenland will be on TBS and Amitsoq.

@Multibaggerjim
the drilling is for structure not grades.
there is a processing plant on site now, which would allow for inhouse testing for internal purposes

@Pioch
No I dont think it is overvalued. First Equitys research note is a good base point to start on, however significant progress has been made since then. In fact I'm in the process of writing up something of my thoughts on this exact matter as we speak. I'll publish it on here when Ive finished ... probably this afternoon.

The main points being
undervaluation of Clogau St Davids (3% of gold value) ... why ? because its not being valued as a mine thats been worked
undervaluation of new lode ... why ? because they didnt know it existed .. now its unproven .. so 3% on that would be reasonable
Gwynfynydd ... a mine that has been worked and documented .... added to portfolio since FERN (first equity research note)
Dolgellau Gold Belt new targets ... value as cash spent on exploration

Limerick ... probably zero

Brockham ... value as comparable ... Angus bought 10% for £260k, deal done since FERN
Horse Hill ... legal challenge defeated since FERN comparable recent sale, range of NPV for different production rates

Melville Bay - no activity ... no change
Inglefield Land - no activity ... no change
Thule Black Sands - note that Bluejay'sDundas adjacent resource is getting close to take off agreement, which would make this more valuable than in FERN
Amistoq - FERN values it as a virgin resource .. however, it has been worked in the past 1915-1924 and enough is know (imo) to inferr a net present value to projected production. This is one season away from being a JORC resource.

So thats the short version of why I think its undervalued on from the FERN

outstanding warrants ... this is what I meant to type

149404761 warrants @ 0.42 --> £ 627,500

236363636 warrants @ 0.55p ---> £ 1,300,000.00

Typo correction:
Re Warrants
by my reckoning ... trawling through RNS since last accounts mentioning exercise of warrants
remaining unexercised ....
630,500 @ 0.42p
1,300,000 @ 0.55p

hardly dilution distress ! especially when compared to some of the Bergen conversions of summer and autumn.

Re Warrants
by my reckoning ... trawling through RNS since last accounts mentioning exercise of warrants
remaining unexercised ....
630,500 @ 0.42p
1,300,00 @ 0.55p

hardly dilution distress ! especially when compared to some of the Bergen conversions of summer and autumn.

Try doing a dummy buy, then dummy sell, then you'll find the true spread. Whether a trade is an investor buy or investor sell may become more apparent to you then

@insertwittyname
When sp 1.1p for 10 consequtive days then the company can give the warrants at 0.55p exercise price a 28 day notice to exercise.

@novice_investor
No it doesnt worry me that GF's background is as a lawyer, there are plenty of transferrable skills and pothole avoiding knowledge that runs a company smoothly with skills like that. Bear in mind that we have a world class senior geologist / operations manager in Mark Austin.

@MineC
If you check GF's video interview, he speaks of getting Clogau in production in late 2021. Personally I think its a little optimistic, but certainly not impossible and dependent on resources allocated to it and timely receipt of permissions. GF is not know for making suprious statements.