Member Info for elir71

The end of the bull run was marked by the "concentrategate" and the missing long anticipated bulk sample assays.
Silence from various derampers marked the end of the slide
all rather "sentimental" ... just sit back and watch the show now !

there's a disconnect between fundamental valuation and market valuation
zak mir approaches this share from a technical analysis point of view

perhaps you should take a more detailed look at the calcs and message me privately as email on the spreadsheet if you require clarification or you spot any errors

yes a £1m offer now and then another later when the SP should be higher post JORC for transition to production

@Shouldve
I had previously valued at 0.7p - 0.9p ... to First Equitys 0.5p (the main difference being that I valued HH at less than FE and I valued Amistoq as more, more akin to a disused mine, as opposed to a greenfield site because it had previously been a mine). The trading range (excluding troughs and spikes) was around 0.3 to 0.5 so about half
I'm using similar rationale in the light of new information with fundamental valuation as 1p - 2.6p (immediately pre jorc)
so I would hope for a trading range of 0.5 to 1.3p between now and November. I'd point out that there's an accelerator clause that kicks in on some warrants at 1.1p (held for 10 days or somethign)

Would existing holders be up for participating in an offer, say 1 discounted share for every 20 held?
I would. Sp needs to be higher first I think.

@lp6060... Private placings aren't the only way of capital raises. This is especially true of post jorc resources with take off agreements. We could be there by the end of 21, but it's not a certainty. All looking good so far though, fingers crossed we need a bit of good luck

@shoulvesold
I'd expect 3 yrs to strong cash flow and 5 for all current resources to be in production. (except for hh brockham) the latter needs to be either sooner making cash or flogged off

@ricardo
A resource pre jorc is conventionally valued at 1/3 of its post jorc value (if the grades and reserves are confirmed as being the same)

No it's not dependent on Welsh gold. Would a company which has exploration rights for tbs and amistoq be able to stand alone? Yes... Example bluejay end of

@shoyldvsold, calcs on spreadsheet, I think all commented, factoring in uncertainty. Npv based on 10% rate 50% equity to npv10 value, 10yr life of mine, taking lowest estimate of quantities and grade. 5% annual growth in graphite val. Accessible by sea for off take, non ice class mini bulker. Capexes built in. Would love to chat more but bit busy today.

@Shouldvsold hmmm interesting point you make re M&A
perhaps up and down a supply chain ? or laterally to producers of similar resources ?
Bear in mind that the end of year figures will need expenditure since that time (which is reasonably guessable) to arrive at a (still more guessable) exploration budget for the season. On what we know now, my guestimate is a need for £800k or so between now and November. Thereafter I think JVs takeoffs ag etc wont be a problem for us. Surely at this SP then that capraise must be massively over factored in.

Yes you are right about JV etc and I would agree with you about that wrt fo TBS, but I think we may get something very favourable from EV manufacturers too once its all proven up, it would be of massive strategic value to the likes of Tesla to have an almost inhouse supply of a critical raw material. Of course, it could be a three way split. Lets not forget the expertise that a mining major can bring to the table for extraction.

Please do your own research
from my quick calcs as I have little time today I can see good reasons why the fundamental value of each share could be 2.6p and very few reasons on why it should be less than 1p
Feed the figures from today's RNS through first equity's research note and methodology for valuation and you may see why

@ian67 I think you are spot on with your "More news" comment

@ocelot, that income stream potential is massive. Its a huge shift in fundamental value.

I think that qualifies as unambigiously positive. I like the clarity of the resource estimate.

May our RNSs be unambiguously positive

Given the geology, the proven lode structure it would, past history, unmined lodes, in my view Clogau isb likely to be a high grade mine.

I'd swap any amount of good fundamentals over speculative share price

I've faith in the exploration method
I'd prefer more timely communication, good news or bad

As there seems to be a difference in oil from each site, perhaps multiple samples would be wise