Member Info for ejt7777

Obvs, don't take the above as advice, DYOR, etc.

Hi there,

Many people have been underwater for some time on this share, including myself until last week. I don't think anyone can (or should) tell you what to do regarding your investment strategy on this - it is something for you to research and make your own mind up about.

For what it's worth, last year there was positive share movement when the drill contractor was announced, share movement into spud and the helium show. We know that a drill contractor is to be announced for this year's drilling, and that drilling is scheduled to start in Q3. Personally, I expect positive share price movement on news of drill contractor and spud. The output from those drills are obviously unknown at this stage.

If any 'current unknowns' appear in the meantime (e.g. major investor, JV, takeover), this will also have an effect on the share price.

Hope this helps.

JL, just going off the way the case was kicked down the road in 2021, and MB divulging he's having talks with a potential JV partner and assessing whether they may assist with unlocking the court situation.

Of course, the court may rule in our favour alone tomorrow or a subsequent session, but (and it is only my opinion) I *think* it's more likely that a JV partner will be selected on the basis of both of being able to unlock the courts as well as our wider commercial needs.

Does anyone have the link to the case status website page please? Looks like the website might have been updated.

FWIW I don't think there will be any transformational news this side of MB agreeing a new JV partner for Bhukia which is agreeable with the courts.

I haven't messaged on here much in recent times - without much news there hasn't been much to talk about.
@JL, I recall that, after the postponement of the Bhukia decision around March this year, the conversations at the time were that 2022 would be more progressive for PAT than 2021. For me, that remains the case - personally I'll reappraise the situation in Q2 next year, but until then I'm just keeping an eye on things periodically.

*If* the case was heard today, I presume PAT would need any judgement to be formally published/put on record before releasing any RNS. I didn't see a judgement recorded on the court website, but might have missed it.

Three options available in court:
1. Rule in PAT's favour
2. Rule against PAT
3. Kick the can down the road (again)

Assuming the case was heard today, I am working on the assumption that the outcome is option 3, based on past history and the stability in share price this afternoon. I suspect any informal news for the other options would have filtered out and the share price affected accordingly.

I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong though!

@Prof, have you had your discussion with MB? If so, please can you share your feedback?
Many thanks

I tried to go back a few pages to find the drill depth vs drill speed thread, but couldn't immediately find it (and I'm supposed to be working, so can't have an in-depth look!).

From my own 'back of a fag packet' calcs, later on this week is when I have us reaching target depth, so Thurs/Fri this week or early next week is my own expected timeline for news, and anything sooner is a bonus.

My opinion is... do your own research and create your own investment strategy, including any de-risking, accordingly. I don't think anyone else can really inform regarding a comfortable point to top-slice, exit, etc. as it'll be individual to you.

For what its worth though, based on my research and understanding of the company and its fundamentals, the short position mentioned has not changed my own strategy to hold.

@Seagulls, @Ndn,

I love it when everyone's right and we can all share a virtual beer laughing at a minor misunderstanding.

@Ndn71: "A substantial part of the overall risking relates to the “play” risk, which is the same for all prospects. Therefore, if one well is successful, it would derisk HE1’s other targets. We estimate that it could double the overall chance of success for the other prospects."

http://www.helium-one.com/analyst-research/

http://www.helium-one.com/analyst-research/

The analysts on HE1's website state: "We assume a 6bcf prospect (in line with the average of the other planned prospects), which we see as worth 39p/sh unrisked." The other prospects will de-risk as well upon validation of the above-ground assessments on this first drill, too.

We will need to understand the size of any discovery to properly appraise how much the company is worth, and market sentiment will also drive the sp too. However, given the excitement around it at present, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50-60p for this first drill IMHO, if it is successful, with uplift from there as the remaining drills progress.

The phrase "completing the process of exploration and discovery" neither confirms nor denies that the completion of the process will be successful or not, just that they are following that process.

However, it feels like an odd thing to tweet if you don't think you will be successful, so on balance I think it's a (not so) subtle message to shareholders.

I personally expect news in the next fortnight - any sooner would be a bonus.

Looking at the (genuinely excellent - many thanks all) 'Discussion on Drill Progression' thread, next Monday may be a little optimistic.

Based on the estimated range of 750-900m depth completed on that thread (as of this morning), and an assumed 30m/day drill, we could be looking at between 10-15 days of drilling until we reach 1200m - the first, maybe second week in August looks more likely on that basis. However, if they've found anything at around 700m, hopefully they will let us know next week.

Regardless, I'm confident in DM and the drill team to do the job properly, and trust them to provide an update (either good or bad) at the earliest opportunity.

I, for one, welcome our new helium-supplying overlords

Probably the best way I can think of explaining it (I don't want to teach granny to suck eggs, it is not my intention to do so) is:

Get a syringe which is half full of air. Stick your finger over it and push the plunger. Assuming the temperature stays the same, the total quantity of air hasn't changed, but the reduced volume has meant an increase in pressure, hence why it feels like the syringe wants to blow your finger off the end. Conversely, if you pull the plunger, again the total quantity of air hasn't changed but the pressure has dropped, hence feeling like there is a vacuum wanting to pull the end of your finger into the syringe. This is Boyle's law.

There are various other gas laws (e.g. Avogadro) which, when combined, result in the Ideal Gas Law (PV = nRT), but that's for another post!

...that's why I said "for a given quantity of gas" - i.e. for the given mass of a gas in a closed system.

I'm a mechanical engineer by trade. Boyle's Law states that pressure (P) and volume (V) have an inverse relationship, i.e. for a given quantity of gas, if the volume goes down the pressure increases, and vice-versa.

P1V1 = P2V2 = P3V3 etc.

The team will have a good idea about the expected available volume from the pre-drill seismic data etc.

You will need a geologist to confirm whether or not they expect the pressure to be greater lower down (I would expect so based on the weight of rock above it), and whether or not this can be estimated from the seismic data etc.

Hope this helps.

I saw this on twitter, which made me chuckle:

https://twitter.com/edthomas1984/status/1409792840746651648?s=20