RE: We are Not happy bunnies MB10 Jun 2022 14:07
I've been through the recent investor presentation again, focussing on the published, anticipated timeline. My thoughts:
- Labola's updated MRE needs to be above 1MOz IMHO for it to be transformational for shareholders. Q4 looks realistic for the updated MRE. Following on from this, the definitive decision to mine and a route to get there needs to be bottomed out.
- Bassala. The drilling just started there needs to deliver quality, consistent grades to enable a gold discovery to translate into something commercially viable and attractive to investors. My guess is we'll find out at the end of Q3/into Q4.
- Bido, Paimasa and Dagma are longer term prospects, which I see little chance of delivering value to shareholders in the short term.
- Bhukia (John' I know you're fed up with this so look away now!). The conclusion of JV discussions and planned move towards international arbitration if JV discussions / court are unsuccessful following the 4th July hearing feels like a watershed moment for the project. Past performance is no guarantee of future decisions, but it feels like a long shot at this stage.
Conclusion for me is that MB is facing a *lot* of headwind across all projects to deliver any meaningful value / growth for shareholders in the short-medium term, but I would be over the moon to be proven wrong on this.