Member Info for ejt7777

Hi Prof,

Do you know how long MB is in India for please?

My (consciously biased) opinion on today's RNS is that the arbitration funding due diligence outcome has been pushed back to a suitable time beyond JV agreement to spare blushes, but I am biased.

Thanks

My thoughts indeed Prof. Mark is in India next week, arbitration announcement due Monday, court has been postponed from Monday to Wednesday. Doesn't take a genius to join up the dots...

Mickey,

Excellent spot. It was the 17th...

@Edhellas, as Rajasthan is GMT+5:30, I'm not necessarily expecting a 7am RNS on Monday, but do expect an update at some point during the day.

Hopefully MB will land in India with positive confirmation of arbitration funding in his back pocket.

Good intel.

Prof, one of these days I'm expecting you to pull off your mask, Scooby-Doo style, to reveal that you are actually Mark.

No doubt someone will correct the maths. For some reason, when I posted the message the capital letters disappeared from multiple sentences. Odd...

@deckchair, releasing / updating a mineral resource estimate (mre) essentially means a recognised process(es) has been followed to calculate how much ore is in a prospect / location. as a rule of thumb, the more drilling you do, the more accurate the mre gets, but if you google 'mineral resource estimate meaning' it'll direct you to the wikipedia page on this, which is a good start.

the drilling which has just commenced in kalaka, if successful, will go towards the production of a maiden mre for this prospect. more drilling thereafter will enable further updates to the accuracy of the mre, which in turn will enable the company to state with confidence how much gold is at a process and inform mining feasibility studies and, eventually, a decision to mine.

at cascades (labola), the maiden mre was announced in october '21 (602k oz). subsequent drilling has been undertaken by moydow, and we should expect an updated mre to be released at some point. something 1moz+ would really make the market sit up and take notice.

timescales for the above are tbc off the top of my head, as the last corporate presentation was published in may 2022 - another is overdue.

it's difficult to assess value of gold in the ground to a share price - personally i've seen estimates vary from between $10-160 per oz. ultimately, how much its worth is dependent on whether anyone wants to buy a prospect, or if a decision to mine is made at a location.

however, if do a very quick and dirty *** packet calculation for bhukia:

7moz mre

take a 'gold in the ground' value of, say, $100/oz

value to panthera as 100% owner of bhukia is $700m

per-share value (131m shares in circulation) translates to $5.34

hope this helps.

It's feasible.

It could also be that as the incentive requirement is to deliver a *minimum* of $5M funding is also just an easy target for Mark to smash? Makes him look good on paper to others...

@Deckchair, Mark Bolton said 'you can add a couple of zeros to the current market cap'

"Hey, investors! You know you're all expecting a potentially transformational update from the company in the immediate future? Well, in completely unrelated news, we've decided that we'd like to reward Mark for his efforts with a nice bonus if he gets it across the line..."

@Deckchair, I'm glad to have posted something useful - makes a change!

'b) securing committed litigation finance (that is available for drawdown by the Company) for a minimum of US$5 million to pursue a claim under the Australia India Bilateral Investment Treaty.'

The key word here for me is *minimum*- doesn't mean that's all they'll end up with, nor that they would necessarily need more than that for arbitration.

Very bullish RNS, and I have no objections whatsoever to Mark's reward if (when) he gets this over the line.

Yes, the whole area is teeming with low-grade gold, importantly from surface so it is easily (and cheaply) recoverable.

...Kalaka are generally lower than the lower threshold in the link, it could still result in a commercially viable mine due to AISC aspects in Mali.

If the link to Investopedia below doesn't work, google 'low vs medium vs high grade gold drilling' and you'll find it.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/022315/what-does-grade-gold-mine-refer.asp#:~:text=A%20higher%20grade%20means%20that,U.S.%2C%20Russia%2C%20and%20Peru.

Commercial viability has plenty of variables in addition to the pure drill results (AISC), so whilst results of

What it means...

Re:LCM arbitration. I would like confirmation from another learned poster on here, but I understand that the vadt majority approaches to LCM are turned down before due diligence, and only a small percentage of those subject to due diligence are successful. *IF* successful, it's a big deal for Panthera given LCM's success rates for the cases they pursue. This provides both a negotiating tool and an insurance policy for Panthera in the event that any party reneges on any deal agreed.

Mark has always said that he would prefer an amicable settlement with the govt and has pursued this in parallel with arbitration options. He has been open about being in detailed negotiations with a potential JV partner which may unlock the courts.

The proximity of the LCM due diligence deadline to the next court date, and Mark's comments regarding a major update on Bhukia 'hopefully sooner than later' suggest that things may imminently, rapidly come to a head. Usual caveats apply here.

Hope this helps, it's just an opinion and please due your own research.

It's the 'advanced discussions with JV partners in parallel to the arbitration funding' element that whets the appetite, isn't it?

MB has always said that an amicable solution is preferred, but the LCM arbitration route is clearly him also preparing for the worst. It's both an insurance policy and a negotiating tool - well played, Mark.

Taken from the RNS of 1st June:

'...While the Company is pleased to report that all the third-party experts have recently tabled their due diligence findings, the Company has agreed to a further extension to the LCM Due Diligence period to 30 June 2023 to consider these findings. The Company does not expect a further extension of the due diligence period.'

From the RNS of 3rd July:

'While the Company previously did not anticipate a further extension of the due diligence period, the Company confirms that it has agreed to a further extension to the LCM Due Diligence period to 14 July 2023.

'Following the successful completion of LCM Due Diligence, the parties can then move to complete a Funding Confirmation Notice. There can be no assurance that LCM's due diligence will be completed to LCM's satisfaction.'

---

The outcome is binary: either the due diligence is completed to LCM's satisfaction, or it isn't.

To my mind, either Panthera is fine tuning aspects of the due diligence to enable LCM to reach their decision, or it is being held back on a technicality to assist with government/JV negotiations ahead of 17/7 court hearing. It is my opinion (and only my opinion) that:

- If LCM's due diligence fundamentally wasn't to their satisfaction, we would know this by now as there is nothing to be gained from extending the due diligence period.

- If Panthera is fine tuning the due diligence submission/answering final clarification questions, at this stage this is more encouraging than discouraging regarding the outcome.

- If the outcome is known to be favourable to Panthera but is being held back on a technicality, it is to facilitate the government negotiations.

I think (again, only my opinion) that it is the latter of these three scenarios. If negotiations are successful, nobody needs to know that the government would have been subject to international arbitration, with the associated loss of reputation, political capital and cost. If they are unsuccessful, Panthera starts the ball rolling on arbitration with the corresponding impacts on the government described above. This puts Panthera in a strong position.

Big 12 days ahead.