Member Info for Edgein

Dicko,

Those resource numbers are very conservative too:

From the June 2024 presentation we get the following, on top of the 35mmbbls of Njonji resources they have "166 MMBBL in low risk, low cost, shallow exploration and appraisal targets, close to existing infrastructure". Also in the deeper plays you mention, ">600 MMBOE identified in further emerging exploration plays, analogous to giant fields along trend". That looks good enough to attract a substantial company with production I would say. Looks like they could be getting quite a lot of potential for their minority farm-in.

800mmbbls is extremely conservative for their Namibian Block, they have both Alpha and Gamma as at least 1bbn each on their website, leads A, B, C, D range from 250mmbbls - 686mmbbls each, leads E, F, G, H , I, J up to 75mmbbls each. So easily multi bn bbl potential from the closures alone and they still have to give the volumetrics for the stratigraphic targets they're working on and will be released in due course. It will be even more interesting once they complete the AVO analysis. So the numbers in that brokers report seem extremely conservative in terms of prospective oil.

Regards,

Ed.

Because a substantial oil production company approached TRP to farm into their Cameroon asset for the cost of the well. The target is large compared to TRP's £2m cap at open today. I'm surprised its only done 200% as they're now at draft terms stage for South Africa too and may get a share of back costs from that. Also new is that they're in talks with banks for options for full field development so high impact on a £2m cap, also NAV is around £36m so a bit on the oversold side too. :) You'll also find that many are here for not only the farmout but for the drilling of NJOM-3.

Summary for you:

"The first half of 2024 has seen positive developments across all of our licenses, and we believe we are now close to finalising the financing for the NJOM-3 well in Cameroon."

Regards,

Ed.

MrB,

Phase 1 of the field development is targeting 6-10,000bopd (see June presentation), if the deeper target comes in they're hoping for 16,000bopd. Not bad for £6.5m cap.

Regards,

Ed.

They have an estimate economics of over $200m revenue for 2026 from Njonji (at $75/bbl). Even a minority interest could be a lot of free cash and rapid payback if successful.

Regards,

Ed.

Casper,

I'm not surprised this is attracting interest from production companies. Most offshore developments take 3-4 years. TRP are talking about an early production from the first well and full field production in 2026 if all goes to plan. Be interesting to see how the bank talks going between now and possible drilling, as well as the funding talks for drilling and negotiations for South Africa.

Regards,

Ed.

Hi Dicko,

Yes, even though its TRP's smallest asset it could be transformational as your number show in the short term. To hear that there's an option for early development of NJOM-3 is exciting and bank talks ongoing on that. This is all Q4 and Q1 2025, exciting times for sure, will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Regards,

Ed.

Prest,

If all goes to plan in Cameroon as set out by TRP we could have similar or perhaps a little more production to the likes of AET, £103m cap currently. So a lot to play for on TRP's smallest asset. If all goes to plan the surrounding structures contain around 100mmbbls+ prospective

June 2024:

"100+ million bbl potential in Cameroon – and cost-recoverable exploration when Njonji is in production, with two further exploration periods available."

Just for clarity I hold millions of these and no AET. Fingers crossed it may be those farming in though as they have very good management and would be a good fit (a pure guess on my part though).

Regards,

Ed.

Kever,

Even though Jeremy has mentioned several rigs available the timing of these opts ties in with the apparent arrival of the Vali rig to west Africa and their possible contract from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026. If Jeremy can close on the bank talks this side of Christmas its certainly possible that Borr could agree to such an option. If they close on both the well funding and field development financing there could be a very happy Christmas for many here.

Someone earlier mentioned Cameroon being small:

"Based on the results of the Paradise attribute analysis the following update of Tower’s internal resource and risk estimates for the reservoirs connected to the NJOM-1 and the NJOM-2 discovery wells has been generated. The latest company estimate of risked PMean recoverable resources is now 35.4 million barrels." That doesn't include the other structures on the block.

They previously mentioned a FFD production rate of around 16,000bopd (100% gross production). So for a £5m company that isn't small by any standard.

South Africa,

Nice to see them getting past the DD stage and on to draft terms, the mention of possible back costs is interesting too as they could be small for a large company but material for a £5m company.

Regards,

Ed.

Stalin,

Great to see the progress being made. Very close to the financing of the first Cameroon well, others also interested in coming into Cameroon, also discussing with the banks the field development including possibly an early production system and in draft terms stage of South Africa farm-out with possible back costs. That was a lot of info packed into today's announcement with potentially very strong news flow before 2025 spud. A please to read that announcement today for sure.

Regards,

Ed.

Torre,

Very true, would also be nice to see a new presentation in Q4 with SG's vision over the next few years. When I look a new company their recent presentation is the first thing I look at. I guess he may want to update on the three parts of the strategy first as mentioned in the recent update.

Regards,

Ed.

Jiving,

I still pop on here now and again, good to see you still posting too. I agree with your post, yes BP in the end did get what they were looking, a settlement from Summit. Yes Summit are the owners of our assets currently but we do have the potential for a pending action and the potential coverage that may get, that's why I don't see the assets getting sold on at this stage. There's more to this saga to come yet and it will be MC conducting proceedings for us. In the mean time I wouldn't be surprised that there will be activity at both CCU and BFU on the build up to their eventual sale.

We did have have an idea why an "industry leader" would be interested given the size of the CCU Frontiers, the workovers flowing oil from damaged wells and showing a new oil down to point over a large area. Hopefully we'll get the answers to why they walked in the end. Imo Mr Cotter is the man for the job. Technically true, but when you look at the M&A currently going on on other large assets they don't have the baggage that these assets currently have. Put it this way if an industry leader terminated a JV effectively destroying a small company and then took the assets in a stalking horse process it would have created a large fuss for them. I've not seen a major operate like that in over 30 years of investing so not surprised it didn't happen on this occasion either. Once the pending action is resolved I would imagine that a large oil company/companies will eventually own CCU/BFU.

Regards,

Ed.

Seems like there's a bit of boot filling going on ahead of the anticipated updates on KON-16, Brazilian acquisition and battery metals. EV is only approx £2.5m once the current placing completes. Seems very light for the pending sale of Mambare alone let alone all the rest of the assets.

Regards,

Ed.

Shouston,

We were told that the upgrades to the gas gathering and injection brought capacity up to 10.5-12mmcfd. They know that before injection it was doing 220bopd approx, peaking at over 10 times that when they briefly tried 8mmcfd. Its been happily doing 800-1100bopd since on just gas recycling. Its only natural that the new owners will want to see what happens to flow rates once they follow the injection strategy as set out by Ryder Scott (in many of those old COPL presentations). 8.5mmcfd+++

Regards,

Ed.

Jiving,

Industry leaders aren't in a rush ever. Most wait for discoveries to be appraised and even producing before making a move. Apparently the industry leader was the most suitable pick, they spent 15 months on DD and negotiations and knew what they were getting involved with. They'll know just how murky this whole thing has been since early 2023. BP were not happy with the sales process and you can read over their comments on that on KSV etc. Imo there won't be any re-sale of these assets for some time yet. We'll eventually see what happens to these large 40 year assets in the future but I can see why they didn't get involved in this ongoing s**t storm. Once the dust settles you'll likely see CCU and BFU change hands and reach their full potential. Will summit appraise them first, who knows. Imo ultimately they'll end up in the hands of an oil co.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

I'm good, hope you are too! Yeah they did talk for some time about consolidation of assets in Angola and clearly KON-16 was top of their list. Well SG did say he's going to be updating on all three elements of the strategy in the near term as well as more on KON-16. So yeah current plan is an update on Brazilian producing assets. Market cap is still barely over £3m, be interesting to see where this is by year end.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning guys,

Very interesting news, fund raise sorted and it sounds as if these new investors could be sticky hands too when SG specifically mentions they've a background in oil and gas, strategic investors with experience in Angola etc.

Big news was clearly the free interest increase in KON-16, clearly the current core asset. eFTG result due on 100% of that one in Q4. We now have 49.5% net interest in this:

"KON-16 in particular, offers substantial upside in the form of post-salt targets of 456 MMBbls and pre-salt targets of 1,029 MMBbls, a historic well that had oil shows in both the pre and post salt, and geology very analogous to the offshore Cameia discovery, which has to date identified some 500 MMBbls. The Company considers that the timing of KON-16 development may well be materially accelerated if KON-11 results prove favourable."

That is something like 735mmbbls net prospective from KON-16 alone! As the company has stated today they're in full control of timing of ops on KON-16 within the current 6 year exploration period. I'd like to see an updated presentation on their site given the current and upcoming developments here. More news to come short term from the mention in this announcement too.

Regards,

Ed.

Luke,

Very true. From memory the first target on KON-16 is the Tuenza updip and its 600mmbbls target or around 200mmbbls net prospective to CRCL. I make that to be about x20 the size of Tobias contingent. No wonder they did the e-FTG there first! Its the big daddy prospect for CRCL for sure. High risk but insane upside if it comes in.

Regards,

Ed.

Morning Nige,

Yeah that interview was timed to give investors the heads up to an active period and it covered all angles, what's going on in Angola, what they're looking at in Brazil and what roughly to expect there. Agree Nige no bells and whistles and straight to the point on what to expect. He has a lot of experience in these regions and a clear goal in mind and no part being neglected. Canegrass has a lot of potential as well as Angola and Brazil, hopefully see some progress on all three in the coming months. Strategy update should tell all, hopefully the first Brazilian acquisition will get the share price back in action again.

Regards,

Ed.

Good morning Luke,

Yeah I agree too that the record of the management is a strong indication and they have the potential on the assets for a major change in fortunes. Mr Gilbert sounds excited by the prospect in his recent interview. Sounds like they are looking at a pipeline of assets in Brazil. First acquisition likely to be small and he also mentions consolidation and larger assets in the interview. I3E and SQZ were able to build most of their production and reserves through acquisitions so it can happen with the right management. We'll find out over "a busy Q4" and the next couple of years, the upcoming strategy update will make interesting reading. Those old option targets are certainly interesting, a few good acquisitions and a bit of success on KON-16 and you never know. Also interesting to hear Mr G also refer to the strong oil shows encountered in Tobias, unfinished business there too.

Regards,

Ed.

Torre,

Yeah nice to see today's formality concluded. Hopefully the plan between GG and SG will be revealed soon and we'll have a clearer idea of the way ahead under the new management. I liked the way that SG took the lead with an interview straight off the bat. Hopefully see more of these stockbox/proactive/LSE or investor meets company etc in the future. Lots more due soon, as you suggest Brazilian acquisition is hoped to complete in the very near term as per interview, been working on those since March.

Regards,

Ed.