Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Banksy,
Sure anyone with any amount of shares here would be disappointed that today didn't give them the exit they've been waiting for, especially for the LTH which there are still quite a few; likely holding way more than many of these traders that come and go. But those that have been here know we've seen worse, like the Essar Vs COPL RNS of a few years back. This one has felt more like a TO than an JV for some time imo. With their relaxed approach to getting the GGS upgraded and the injection rate back to previous highs, its 2 1/2 years and we're still getting back to where they were. Does that make it as frustrating as heck to share holders damn right! BFU alone has NPV into hundreds of $m, but yet here we are sat at £9m! So yes, me and many others hope that the new strategy statement that's coming in a change of strategy as the current way of enhancing shareholder value doesn't seem to be working very well.
Regards,
Ed.
Banksy,
Comments sure. Its a bit disappointing the the talks have currently terminated with the industry leader. But then does that devalue our 2P reserves or the NPV of BFU? Nope. The company recently said they were focusing on the last outstanding issues with the JV negotiations and increasing production. Well today we have heard about one of these
Shaa,
Yes 8.5mmcfd was in play with the plastic pipes but only very temporarily. Ryder Scott had after all modelled 5000bopd and that was repeated again during those Wyoming gas hearings. So even two years on we've still to see what peak rates the BFU can achieve. They didn't get to inject at 8.5mmcfd for very long before better than expected permeability was transferring a lot of that reservoir pressure into wellhead pressure. This time hopefully a different story entirely. I guess that's why they're taking so long this time to get back up to those previous injection levels. Ready to intervene on any wells not currently connected. But I guess they'll stick to central and western injection patterns until they're ready to upgrade phase 2 etc. But getting this from the company would be a good start and we wouldn't need to guess.
Yes the JV is a different ball game, its approx 10 times the size of recoverable to the BFU, company stated there could be as much as 50mbbls recoverable from the BFU. That's an irrelevant amount of oil to an industry leader, in fact if they were to acquire COPL I could see them selling off BFU. Our neighbours would be getting 5000bopd from 3 or 4 wells, it the CCU and BFFDU is as big as RS and the company suggest its more like a 100-150 well development. That is why the JV/transaction talks are with an industry leader and not a mid tier.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
When I was referring to the M&A its just really the the A part of that I was thinking of. Acquisition is much more likely than a merger. It would at present be hard to find another cheaper company with this much upside to make it very favourable on our side to do a merger. I'd like to see these assets priced in first before any business combination would be attractive. The acquisition trail however is very much ongoing from many of the RNS releases.
Regards,
Ed.
Shaa,
That extra gas is being injected into the field and returned back through the upgraded GGS. I'd like to see them get back to 8.5mmcfd injection rates as the current capacity is currently 10mmcfd. Production just has to average 2000bopd to fund the company next year. So plenty of scope to get there again, hopefully this time at 8.5mmcfd there won't be any further issues and they can add those additional wells as and when necessary.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
Yes not long to wait now for news on TO-14 looking forward to it too. We know from the news reports at the time that CRCL are only in for KON-15 in the 2023 onshore bid round (result should be known early next year). There are other onshore undeveloped discoveries in Angola, so I'm hoping the additional opportunities refers to an interest in one of those. Or perhaps Sonangol will divest more of its offshore interests (we can dream). Either way we'll all find out in due course. Results of TO-13 and TO-14 and outcome of the KON-15 application will give CRCL a better idea of spending commitments in the near and mid term. Canegrass chip samples may also strongly encourage an RC campaign there too. So lets see how these progress, if Mr Karam wants to surprise us with some M&A in the mean time by all means.
Regards,
Ed.
Good morning Nige,
Yeah I sure did like that one, it shows just how good our current blocks are! Just to further elaborate on what I was saying in that post as I hadn't time to check but have this morning. Bakken shale has TOC range of 0.35%-4.5%, Eagleford shale is from 0.05%-6.5% with some central areas a bit higher. So for the source rock in Angola to be 0.5%-14% bodes well for oil generation; lots of it is in the mature oil generating window when you see the size of the discoveries offshore Kwanza. That all helps the prospectivity of our current and possible future acquisitions in the country, especially as two of our current three blocks have a discovery on each!
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Sienna,
Yeah we're getting the best of both worlds for now. Mt Weld results still pending for the REEs, Canegrass rock sampling still pending and there is an option currently to retain shares in IBM rather than taking full cash for the sale of Wowo gap/Mambare etc. So may have Ni, Li and REE exposure going forward. I hope they do need to do more expo work, including drilling Canegrass in the future to expand on what they've got so far. But I do feel we've bigger plans for Angola, so it will be interesting to see what Mr Karam does with these other mining assets in the future. Canegrass may add significant value for us shareholders (Li, Rb), but we need to see those assays first. If they do get it drilled up I'd like to see it floated off on the ASX, I think POW are doing something similar from their RNS today (Uranium). We'll hear more in the next couple of months.
Regards,
Ed.
Nige,
Thanks for posting that, very interesting doc for sure, I've saved that one. Did you see how many of the pre and post-salt targets cross KON-12 in particular? Seems like we have some hot blocks already. 10bn bbls potential onshore Angola speaks volumes (if you pardon the pun). TOC of the source rock ranges from 0.5% up to a staggering 14%, that's very high for organic content. If I'm not mistaken I think an lot of the US shales tend to be about 3-7%, I'd need to check that again as I'm not a non-conventional fan, tend to invest in conventional oil. 14% TOC seems really high. Looks like we could to with some more 2D seismic lines over all three blocks, looks like one does cut straight through Tobias. Did only get a quick look through for now but lots of info in there. Cheers for posting that on here.
Regards,
Ed.
Good morning Nige,
Absolutely, Mr Karam is a shrewd operator, if its gonna enhance our value he'll likely proceed wherever the project is providing its a good match for the existing assets. Even our non-core assets are being moved through exploration at the moment so he's ticking all the boxes. So as you say the near and mid term here are going to be very interesting considering our current cap. TO-13 and TO-14 could be the first game changers here.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
That is a good question re-Brazil. The focus may be solely on Angola now given the results of TO-13, as you say fairly quiet on Brazil since March, some mention in the July presentation but not much since:
"The Company's cornerstone achievement during the year was the acquisition of three interests in onshore blocks in Angola, KON-11/12/16, through the acquisition of a 90% interest in Atlas Petroleum Exploration Worldwide Ltd ''APEX''. Corcel's agreement to bring these assets into the Company - at what the Board considers very favourable pricing - has provided the Company with a firm foundation in Angola on which to build, and several additional opportunities are currently under consideration."
The several other additional considerations sound like Angola too, given the context of that paragraph, possibly a reference to KON-15, hard to say without more detail. But several makes it seem like more Angola beyond current assets and KON-15. Interesting to see what comes.
Then we get this:
"Rounding out the Company's transformation have been several board changes, some of which were in progress at the time of writing and are expected to conclude by the end of 2023."
Makes it sound like the new board additions will complete the transformation. So focus may be on Tobias development and additional Angolan acquisitions; why focus on mature gas wells in Brazil if you now believe there is significant oil remaining in Tobias after TO-13? But lets wait and see. They have plenty on the cards with Tobias anyways. Perhaps better not to rush into a lot of acquisitions until they know how much and how many wells will take Tobias to redevelopment and EPS etc. A new presentation and a forward plan will likely give us many of these answers, hopefully have that around the time of TO-14 TD and result.
Regards,
Ed.
RL,
We are only valued at circa £7m which just about value in the sale of the mining assets. Pretty much nothing in for the 16mmbbls of contingent and 297mmbbls of prospective. So bags of upside from here, especially given Mr Karam's comments about Tobias in the results, significant hydrocarbons etc. Market has still to price that in. Also this one should be trading at a premium too given its funding position with the convertible notes priced at roughly twice the share price plus incoming from the asset sales. Moreover pending acquisitions too. So twice the current price would be a good start but multiple bags if they add more assets or show that Tobias was larger than first though.
TO-14 drill time was estimated at 40-50 days so approaching the 23rd Dec its likely to get real interesting.
Plus the list of other things like board appointments, news from Australia, further acquisitions possible etc
Regards,
Ed.
Evy,
It was the result of the GM for the sale of Mambare (wowo gap is also being sold to the same party). So it received 99.94% of the vote and was therefore approved, overwhelming result for the company's currently strategy. Not surprising given what's going on in Angola.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
Yeah that's possible, it could be another field redevelopment like Tobias and Galinda. Or it could be a producing field with a lot of workover potential. Hopefully hear more in the comping months, also a comprehensive forward plan post results of TO-13 and TO-14 would make interesting reading too. Give a clearer picture of what 2024 will look like.
Regards,
Ed.
Hi Nige,
Yeah Brazil has been talked about since March. The previous presentation suggested they were looking at producing gas assets. So that would bring in immediate reserves and cash flow. But we've not seen anything firm yet. At the same time Mr Karam also has to balance spending in Angola too. Imo we may see something complete in Brazil if/when we establish production from Angola. RBL would be easier to gain for an oil producer.
From the July preentation, for those that might have missed it:
Brazil Overview
POSITIONING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ONSHORE RENAISSANCE - PARTICULARLY IN GAS
• Largest oil producer in South America, howevervast majority currently offshore
• Onshore relatively untapped with production declining following years of underinvestment
• New wave of independent players entering mature onshore assets following Petrobras relinquishing its onshore monopoly
• Significant returns available from simple workovers with short payback periods and low capital development opportunities
• Likely gas focused given attractive valuations, ESG compatibility and recent deregulation of distribution
https://www.corcelplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/20230706_CRCL_PPT_FIN.pdf
Regards,
Ed.
Agreed guys good to see the volume picking up again. We should see a GM RNS later today and that will hopefully pave the way for the completion of the sale of Mambare and Wowo gap. Those $ms would come in handy for the Angolan activities. RGL suggested that we may get the Mt Weld metallurgic result this side of Christmas. Also yet to hear about a possible Brazilian acquisition. So eyes peeled over the next couple of weeks.
Regards,
Ed.