C/o Superscrew on another BB24 Jan 2026 09:12
From another BB this post represents a good direction of where we might be headed.
Imminent...Today
For those unaware, earlier this evening (9pm in Jakarta), a crucial update surfaced on the RKAB approval process.
hxxps://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20260122/44/1946356/ahli-tambang-kritisi-lambannya-persetujuan-rkab-berisiko-hambat-hilirisasi
But to understand its significance, you must remember the last time the Director General of Minerals and Coal, Tri Winarno, made a public forecast. On January 15th, he stated of Vale's RKAB: "It's almost done... Tonight, Inshallah, it will be approved." His comment was precise, and approval was granted that very night. This is the same official now shaping the narrative.
Tonight, Winarno has identified the core holdup: the delay in finalising the 2026 national mineral and coal production target. This is a macro, inter-ministerial issue. But critically, he stresses this process is to be finalised soon.
Thus, this is not a story of indefinite delay; it's a story of a final bureaucratic step before a wave of approvals. When Winarno says "soon," his recent track record suggests we should listen.
Now, combine this with the seismic news from earlier this week: Six mining companies had their permits revoked. This was a purge. PYX's local subsidiaries, PT Investasi Mandiri and PT Tisma, were NOT on that list. They survived the cut. This is a silent but powerful testament to their legitimacy in the eyes of the regulators.
So, let's connect the Tri Winarno dots for PYX:
1. Credible Timeline: The man who called Vale's approval to the hour says the final barrier to all 2026 RKABs (the national target) is being resolved "soon."
2. Legitimacy Audited & Confirmed: PYX's operations passed the recent revocation purge unscathed. They are not part of the problem; they are part of the legitimate mining base the government wants to regulate and run.
3. The Implication is Clear: Once the national target is set—a matter of days—the RKABs for compliant, legitimate producers like PYX will follow.
BOTTOM LINE: The market cap of £2.2 million (0.48p/share) prices PYX for permanent closure. Yet, the evidence now points to a near-term resolution driven by a bureaucrat with a perfect recent forecasting record, for a company that just passed a major compliance audit. The disconnect between price and reality has never been more extreme.
ATB.
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