Member Info for eagle1234

Reported as potential AI Bot, or at least as useful as one as largely seems non-seninsical. Will be ignoring and continuing to report.

I think this forum has improved slightly in attitude, maybe because of the share price improvement. I do recognise a falling one is unlikely to bring the best out of people though.

Please don't take this the wrong way but Kalan your post is an example of one that could be amended slightly to remove the passive aggression that isn't really required and in it's current form may continue to result in further squabbling and personal attacks.

You could have written: "Got my fingers crossed that gotreal is right [passive aggression deleted], north of 15p in 18 months, at least he's consistent [in his positivity], [deleted], I will settle for 6p in 18 months. [passive aggression deleted]a price increase of 400%, 500% or more in 18 months would be a great sweetener."

Just a thought. Have a good weekend all.

Interesting linkedin find below!

On chrome:

As it was the company that mentioned the link between chrome price and PGM price it's good to see the Chrome price has remained steady at $265, as per https://www.tharisa.com/weekly-pgm-and-chrome-info.php

(From Q4 Operational Update - South Africa "With the significant growth in the Company's chrome processing operations, the exposure to chrome markets outweighs the exposure to PGM markets in a ratio of approximate 4.5-to-1. This ratio suggests that a 1% downward movement in the chrome price will require an increase of 4.5% in the platinum prices to offset the reduced chrome earnings. Equally, a recovery in chrome prices will have a far greater impact on the Company's earnings. Chrome markets have retracted over the past 3 months by approximately 11.4%, driven mainly by concerns on world demand for stainless steel which is often a lead indicator of global growth expectations. The 33% appreciation in the platinum price has been able to buffer largely the expected loss in chrome earnings.")

I'm actually struggling to understand this, without concluding we are in contracts that are massively underwater when the Chrome price is not at near historical highs? Can anyone help understand? Is it just that we are producing loads of chrome versus PGMs? Are we not just gambling on chrome prices at this point?

They usually do wait until the very last minute for everything.

I get the feeling that as most of the news the last few years has mostly been delays or bad news, they wait until the last possible moment as there is still a chance that something could happen to either mitigate or soften the bad news.

So in their mind it's either 100% chance of a bad news/ delay RNS versus a less than 100% chance of something good happens to mitigate it.

I'm frankly flabbergasted how this offer has devasted the share price. Along with management putting a damper on PGM price improvements - if we really aren't going to benefit from the PGM rise then we are way over exposed on Chrome? Why aren't we communicating how we are able to switch into PGM production and still issuing 40k oz guidance. Maybe they are sand bagging so they can beat targets?

Anyway, I don't think I've added much here. Hopefully not long to go.

Everlong, not highly relevant to a JLP board then is it.

In the absence of much else to say until the circular arrives I'll point out that Rhodium is up to $6500. (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rhodium)

40,000 oz of PGMs with 9% Rhodium = 3600 oz. So in the absence of knowing if there's a variable cost component I'm not considering for every $100 rise there should be an annualised increase in Profit before Tax of $360k. So with prices around $5400 in May their should be an annualised increase of PBT of about $4m since the announcement of the proposed sale.

(I'd hope we would up this to 50k oz in light of the prices, but the RNS didn't advise that - it would be nice to know the ).

Personally, when I've got my optimistic hat on which changes multiple times a day, I'm expecting a really strong investment case for copper in Zambia but am hoping the investment needs can be met by keeping the SA business supported by the higher PGM prices.

The maths on future earnings on what we're told (or not told as the case may be...) is the potential for copper production and my innate greed make this company too difficult to stay out of.

$6400

$6350

Bottomsup, source?

Deleted all mention of Jubilee from his linkedin though which is a bit unusual.

Rhodium $6250 according to https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rhodium

Thanks Papaki.

I'm a bit confused. "Jubilee acquires ROM at a fixed contractual agreed price per tonne from the Supplier" and then "The supplier buys all material produced at a contractual agreed price".

Jubilee buys the material off a supplier and then the same supplier buys it back?

Was there any mention of PGM byproduct material? Should that be accounted for as an asset?

I've had a cursory search not yielding much. Does anyone know how many PGM oz approximately comes from a tonne of chrome production?

If we have around 1m oz currently (which I'm not sure is true but have been told that in the past) then at 50k oz a year it would take 20 years to deplete with nothing being added to it.

Rhodium at $5875 as per Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rhodium

Everlong, Leon mentioned 10-15x profit which (supposedly) have the $90m figure. Remember that a percentage increase in PGMs leads to an outsized increase in profits, so I'd expect your $130m number to be higher still!

ActuaryBoi, looks very similar to my comment on the other board.