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It has been a tumultuous period for shareholders in NMC in recent weeks with the stock dropping to a new 5 year low on Friday of just 677p before staging a modest rebound to close at 700p. The maelstrom was started by Carson Block’s Muddy Waters research firm who allege a variety of concerns over NMC’s accounts and are tantamount to accusing management of de facto fraud. In response, the company has commissioned Freeh Group headed by Louis Freeh, a former director of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and former federal judge to investigate the claims. Freeh also being described as having, within the management team’s expertise, former senior law enforcement officials, legal consultants, accountants, and security and compliance experts. In short, if there is any substance to the Muddy Waters allegations then these guys one would expect will find it. In contrast, as an aside, if there is not, then Carson Block’s head will, figuratively, literally be on the block as the decimation in value here runs to billions from his report release and that is clearly directly responsible.

Exacerbating the decline in the shares has been the forced selling by two of the company’s directors and investors – Saeed al-Qebaisi and Khalifa al-Muhairi who had pledged stock against loans and were forced to sell just under $500m of stock in January. Interestingly, this stock was placed at £12.50 a share by Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank and pertinently, the balance of the 2 directors holdings are now restricted under lock ups of between 90 & 360 days.

The stock was routed further last week and this prompted an RNS on Tuesday by the company stating that they knew of no specific reason for the decline. Key line in the 4 Feb RNS being – “The Company’s operations continue to perform strongly and the Company expects to report full-year 2019 results in-line with management’s expectations.” That is a brave and for the believers in the stock, very important statement to put out whilst the Freeh investigation is ongoing.

Given the decimation in value running to a couple of billion pounds in recent weeks it is thus not surprising that reports have surfaced of bid/investment interest in the stock. IF the Muddy Waters allegations are without substance then the shares present a serious bargain opportunity.

From having a short interest outstanding of near 30% in December to less than 10% now, as the FT rightly highlighted in yesterday’s paper , the smart money most definitely has been made. As we alluded to on Friday on our twitter feed, the risk/reward skew at this level is most definitely against the bears with the potential catalysts of a number of potential bidders in the frame, the Freeh report release and Shetty buying out the distressed investors. Further, the company now has authority to buy back upto $200m of their shares, this being passed at the recent GM. Based on the current market cap, that could move the needle materially for the share price

It was posted on Betaville last Tuesday ... they seems to have good connections in The City:

https://www.betaville.co.uk/betaville-intelligence/rare-alert-nmc-health-said-to/

Coolkid, you are probably right .. I posted this a couple of hours ago:

“ I just did some researching online and it looks this takeover news was circulating in The City days ago so in my opinion the shorting was to take as much shares as possible from the weak hands before news find its way to the public:

" Tuesday, 4 February 2020, 3:03 pm

Private equity firms are said to be circling around NMC Health, the London-listed gulf hospital operator.

People following the situation said several of the world's largest buy-out houses have held talks with executives from NMC Health about a take private of the beleguered company.

However, it's not clear whether a formal written offer has been submitted to NMC Health, which has been the focus of a short selling attack from Carson Block's Muddy Waters.

People following the situation said it's thought the private equity firms have been studying making an offer for the whole of NMC Health at between £14.00 and £19.00 a share.

Recently reports in Spain suggested Cinven, KKR and EQT were looking at buying NMC Health's Spanish unit Eugin, a fertility business.

NMC Health is being advised by investment bankers from Barclays and JP Morgan on its talks with the private equity firms, said these people following the situation.

Yesterday, NMC Health's shares fell 16pc to around £10.00 a share, raising speculation speculation a major investor was liquidating holdings in the FTSE 100 healthcare company.

In response to the dramatic share price fall, NMC Health today said: "It knows of no specific reason for the fall. The independent review being undertaken by Freeh Group International Solutions LLC, announced on 17 January 2020, is proceeding. The company's operations continue to perform strongly and the company expects to report full-year 2019 results in-line with management's expectations."

Muddy Waters responded in a Tweet by saying: "We have a hard time believing that NMC Health "knows of no specific reason" for yesterday's fall (and by extension, today's under-performance). There are three major shareholders, each of whom are seemingly margined to the hilt. None of their stock was dumped yesterday???."

NMC Health's shares dropped almost 18pc in response to the Tweet from Muddy Waters and then recovered to trade at around 960p a share.

Last month, lenders to two of NMC's controlling shareholders — Saeed Bin Butti and his relative Khalifa Bin Butti, the company's vice chairman — sold a large stake at a deep discount, around £12.50 a share, in order to cover debts linked to the shares.

NMC Health was founded by BR Shetty, an Abu Dhabi-based entrepreneur.

He also set up Finablr, which owns Travelex. That company, too, has seen its share price hit following allegations from Muddy Waters against NMC Health. BR Shetty recently revealed that he had used more than of his shares in Finablr against debt from buying the British group in 2015.

NMC Health declined to comment when cont

MT, is that what you really think or you are guessing adzy2k11 's next post? ha

If the company confirms the takeover proposal then we'll see min. of £9 on the BID at the opening

Oh and I cant wait to hear what adzy2k11 will say about the takeover news lol

NMC had 3x the Average daily Volume yesterday so its very likely that they covered their shorts, don't forget the after hours massive trades

Time Trade Price Volume Value
Time Trade Price Volume Value
17:08:43 753.801 4,172 31.45k O
17:06:13 870.596 500 4,353 O
17:05:58 802.81 4,687 37.63k O
16:57:43 755.666 79,316 599.36k O
16:57:03 769.596 82,004 631.10k O
16:55:46 718.844 1,943,199 14m O
16:55:15 796.248 1,350,000 11m O
16:53:24 808.887 1,118 9,043 O
16:53:13 802.81 26,999 216.75k O
16:52:49 844.983 1,929 16.30k O
16:51:11 870.066 500 4,350 O
16:51:11 870.066 500 4,350 O
16:46:29 793.38 1,318 10.46k O
16:43:26 699.991 70,786 495.50k O
16:37:00 700.00 2,500 17.50k A
16:35:41 700.00 2,500 17.50k A
16:35:22 700.00 10,000 70.00k A
16:35:22 700.00 1,178,551 8m UT

I just did some researching online and it looks this takeover news was circulating in The City days ago so in my opinion the shorting was to take as much shares as possible from the weak hands before news find its way to the public:

" Tuesday, 4 February 2020, 3:03 pm

Private equity firms are said to be circling around NMC Health, the London-listed gulf hospital operator.

People following the situation said several of the world's largest buy-out houses have held talks with executives from NMC Health about a take private of the beleguered company.

However, it's not clear whether a formal written offer has been submitted to NMC Health, which has been the focus of a short selling attack from Carson Block's Muddy Waters.

People following the situation said it's thought the private equity firms have been studying making an offer for the whole of NMC Health at between £14.00 and £19.00 a share.

Recently reports in Spain suggested Cinven, KKR and EQT were looking at buying NMC Health's Spanish unit Eugin, a fertility business.

NMC Health is being advised by investment bankers from Barclays and JP Morgan on its talks with the private equity firms, said these people following the situation.

Yesterday, NMC Health's shares fell 16pc to around £10.00 a share, raising speculation speculation a major investor was liquidating holdings in the FTSE 100 healthcare company.

In response to the dramatic share price fall, NMC Health today said: "It knows of no specific reason for the fall. The independent review being undertaken by Freeh Group International Solutions LLC, announced on 17 January 2020, is proceeding. The company's operations continue to perform strongly and the company expects to report full-year 2019 results in-line with management's expectations."

Muddy Waters responded in a Tweet by saying: "We have a hard time believing that NMC Health "knows of no specific reason" for yesterday's fall (and by extension, today's under-performance). There are three major shareholders, each of whom are seemingly margined to the hilt. None of their stock was dumped yesterday???."

NMC Health's shares dropped almost 18pc in response to the Tweet from Muddy Waters and then recovered to trade at around 960p a share.

Last month, lenders to two of NMC's controlling shareholders — Saeed Bin Butti and his relative Khalifa Bin Butti, the company's vice chairman — sold a large stake at a deep discount, around £12.50 a share, in order to cover debts linked to the shares.

NMC Health was founded by BR Shetty, an Abu Dhabi-based entrepreneur.

He also set up Finablr, which owns Travelex. That company, too, has seen its share price hit following allegations from Muddy Waters against NMC Health. BR Shetty recently revealed that he had used more than of his shares in Finablr against debt from buying the British group in 2015.

NMC Health declined to comment when contacted by Betaville."

The sentiment will change and we'll see people jump on board first thing Monday after anything around £10/share if NMC agrees to the takeover

Another source:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-7981441/Infamous-predator-KKR-2bn-hospitals-raid.html

So I take it £7 is the rock bottom and we'll see some share price recovery from here ;)

"America's most powerful private equity firm has held talks with senior executives at NMC Health about a £2 billion plus takeover of the embattled hospital operator.

City sources told The Mail on Sunday that KKR – the former owner of pharmacy giant Boots that was immortalised in the bestselling book Barbarians At The Gate – discussed the possible buyout with NMC Health's management team in the past few weeks.

If an agreement can be reached on NMC Health, the takeover could fire the starting gun on a wave of dealmaking in the City this year.

KKR has already spent billions of dollars investing in healthcare assets in the US. It paid $2.8 billion (£2.2 billion) in 2017 for WebMD, the health information provider.

The private equity firm also paid $10 billion for the Envision Healthcare Corporation, an American hospitals group, in 2018.

Sources said KKR may face competition from other US-based private equity firms for NMC Health. Apollo, led by Leon Black, has talked to NMC Health about a variety of deals, varying from purchasing a stake in the business to buying the whole group.

Reports last week suggested NMC Health's Indian founder, Bavaguthu Raghuram Shetty, 77, was seeking to take control of the remainder of their shareholdings in NMC Health and return to an 'active leadership position' at the embattled group."

MT, again since the company’s listing in 2012 EVERY time the sp rsi hits 20% value investors/traders come seeking TA bounce , the company’s RNS not to expect a nasty surprise from the coming results will make such opportunity more appealing to them

“ All the way down I'm afraid. Best not to have any stop loss. You'll be gutted if they take it down under 6 get stopped put and they move it back up”

I very much agree on cancelling stop loss orders because at this point it’s clear that shorters have tried all sort of games to drop the sp and brought it down to this ridiculous level ..

saying that, I don’t think we’ll see another drop in the shareprice because the company made it clear in the RNS that there is no reason for the drop in the sp and its coming results should be in line with the market’s expectation, also the sp fell in the oversold zone yesterday (RSI is 20%)so any further drop in the sp will flag on TA charts and attract day traders & value investors ..

it’s worth to know that the sp trend NEVER dropped under 20% rsi since listing !

I think we’ll see £10 or above by next weekend and put me down for £12.5 (min.) by the 28th

Adzy, You’ve been the most active person on this board this weekend & deramping non stop since the early morning , you couldn’t be more creative in coming up with all sort of conspiracy theories to spread panic among shareholders to make them sell on Monday early morning. So you are either a shorter or someone with high entry and wants to average down at the lowest possible sp

“ Yeah and such contradiction, just six weeks apart!

https://twitter.com/Pavol_Krupa/status/1210449928339759104?s=20”

This post prove to all of us on here that you are posting for the sake of deramping which obviously means you don’t hold any shares in this company atm

They posted that tweet before they held a meeting with NMC .. in the same tweet they requested a detailed respond to MW’s allegations & for the company to independently investigate allegations ... NMC invited them over, discussed with them the allegations, arranged for sites visits to show them their facilities, ran internal investigation and hired former FBI Director Louis Freeh to independently investigate MW’s allegation.

Who the hell are these guys? Anybody heard of them prior to NMC? They only have three people on their website. Seems like a joke outfit.
https://www.krupainvestments.com/en/about-us/“

Well a”joke” wouldn’t have £12 million to pay for 1M shares in NMC

Gary,

Check the TA chart by lakshmi

https://twitter.com/lakshmi_888/status/1225822696266706944

In my opinion she is one of the best chartist on twitter.

RSI is 20% Which is the lowest RSI here since listing ;)

“ What made it fall 22% yesterday. I'm not sure what ”

Gary, I was on the L2 all day yesterday monitoring the transactions and I noticed the following:

Small but nonstop sells were targeting the BID ... most of them were auto sells then after like 10-15 mins a massive buy goes through as if someone was loading up big time ..then in the last half an hour before closing & after shorters loaded enough ”ammo” they attacked the BID aggressively to (imo) trigger stop-loss orders which doubled the selling pressure on the BID & helped them to nail another 12% drop in the sp within 30 mins.

The drop is artificial and the sp will see some recovery on Monday

Wooow!! So adzy2k11 has been the most active person on herd today , deramping non stop every couple of minutes since the early morning and yet claim to be a shareholder .. yeah right haha

I’d recommend not to waste the rest of your weekend deramping on here .. £50m worth of shares were traded yesterday and I don’t think people who own such money will make investment decisions based on reading your nonstop posts here

“ You really going to trust Moodys?

Common man.”

Are you for real ?!!!!! Of course I have more faith in Moody business evaluation than in yours .. it’s one of the most respectable financial cooperations in the world and their services have been hugely demanded by governments and multibillions multinational companies around the world.

“Moody's, is an American business and financial services company.

Number of employees: 12,000 (2017)
Revenue: US$4.2 billion (2017)
Net income: US$1.0 billion (2017)”