focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I would add:
Sales in line with broker consensus
Transaction losses down from 1% to 0.7%
Income from late fees down (good for customer quality and the regulators)
UK active customers in Dec 1.6m up from 1m in Nov!
TSL results were on 4 March last yr
Whilst Apt finished a modest +1.3% up at 151.9 Aud it was up 6% at 193.5 one stage and a within a gnat's pube of its all time high. Morgan Stanley lifted its forecast to 170 Aud, interestingly due to its industry leading repeat purchase metric and the early stage of its other offerings. Next week's trading update should hopefully give details. Bell Potter has a similar view and tgt still at 198 Aud.. Apt has the research spotlight of an Asx 30 company whilst TSL has to my knowledge no analyst following except the indomitable Simon Thompson
Dan
Apt confirmed yesterday that they will be on 25th
JT93
Despite a M Cap of £90m there is no broker research. Management are hugely invested and the options make the holding like a Deep Discounted Bond. So in my opinion, sit back and enjoy whilst adding on dips when you can trade in 30k lots within the spread. all IMHO
Apt hit 4th day consecutive high, before slight drop off. Interestingly though the M Cap of AFRM is almost the same as APT now
Apt hit new intra day high of 156.5 Aud
I think that I will need a bigger cake stand
Apt Q1 results due 25/2, set early alarm clock!
Paypal's stonking success in first Q 0ffering BNPL in US indicate that APT'S US customer nos will be astonishing. APT at record high of 151.3 +3.4%
Teelabrown
Reading the Apt 1st Q detailed segmental analysis will be revealing. The Aux disclosures are very detailed and make our RNS information look very spartan. I think you are correct in your assumption at the moment and perhaps for the next 6 months but North America will dominate more before the option is exercised. I still think that the growth in value of APT will be considerable over this period but we will be less than 10% of the cake which will have evolved into a fabulous Sachertorte. Looking forward to my slice with eager anticipation - just don't want it too soon!
All IMHO
TeelaBrown
I am unsure about the liquidity discount but safer to assume it will remain in place.
What I think will skew the calculation will be the growth in other markets, predominantly North America and then Asia and Europe ie The UK slice will diminish but the cake will be larger
Surprised
It was actually up yesterday
The Tuesday closing spread was 71-73 ie mid 72p but showed as an 80p close for some spurious reason
Wed opened at 72 p but showed as an initial (8p, 10%) drop and increased to (15.5%) before ending at (5.5%) which was in reality a rise to 75.5p
A lot of late trade notifications showed at yesterdays close from Tuesday including a purchase of 30k of mine
APT news release gives the Clearpay 2/2 press release in respect of the Woolard review. More importantly it confirms greater than 1.2m active users.
Goldman Sachs anticipate that their APT net margin could be >than their 2% expectation due to reduced losses. Put this in the context of the credit card charges and the review all seems to be a storm in a teacup.
Good to see TSL finishing up yesterday on a high volume mainly down day. Apt up 1.5% today
Surprised
I would add that Apt is a £21.9bn co cf Tsl £85 (of which they own 90%) and they are a year ahead of us in terms of regulation and how to comply. Teh upside is now circa !00% and this is on where we are now, not then the option is exercised
I did also. Low volume trading in Apt today and came off from 149 Aud. Sentiment seems to have been that the recommendations in the Woolard Review were fairly benign
CB
I think that the problem is no broker research .
Treat it as a Deep Discounted Bond. With the 5.4% drop in APTtoday, the redemption value on where APT is now is north of 125p.
So in simple terms, it is the growth in APT value to 2023/24 redemption that is important and the discount will continue to then. If held to maturity, this doesn't matter. The interesting metrics to watch are customer numbers, average spend and margin net of loss. Going forward, it is key to analyse the UK proportion and trends and take into account the maturity of the AUZ market and the explosive growth in North America to be followed by Europe and Asia. APT provides truly excellent quarterly analysis. A very worthwhile read ahead of UK market opening. Two possible clouds are a) potential financial regulation but people are getting free credit so in my view this is driven by the credit card cos and the lesser risk b) political risk ie the new socialist president - will he try and neuter Americas world beating companies and this have a knock on effect on world tech & fintech values - my view is probably. However IMO there is a very profitable journey to redemption.
Chasbrown
An exceptional cause and thankyou for the reminder.
Having donated to SITRAN in Sheffield in the past to buy equipment for them, I will look at doing something again this year as it has been a while
Have added again as did last week
Surprised
I think your target is a tad on the low side as we stand today.
https://www.fool.com.au/2021/01/20/one-bullish-growth-signal-for-the-afterpay-asxapt-share-price-in-2021/
I read the enclosed link with interest regarding recruitment and look forward to the forthcoming q2 trading update for APT whose share price hit an inter day high today
I tried that Innova test yesterday. Took ten mins to work out what to do, wash hands, find something to prop the tube up in and then a 30 min wait for the results. Oh and an uncomfortable nasal swab. Pleased to have had it but far from a mass retail product ps and we have spent £850m on them