Member Info for Dysfunctional

Interestingly APT share price back to where it was at financial year end ie 118 Aud (down from peak in Feb of 160 Aud) and so the 110p per share value is current. At 75p mid, this gives +47% upside to TSL but importantly this is "as is" and not a forward tgt guidance. The UK performance was the star within the group in terms of dynamics ( not total nos of sales /active customers as a relative small part of the total APT market) and so expect further good news with the 3rd Q figures to end March. Unfortunately as now an Asx 30 constituent, APT seems to have become Nasdaq proxy

TB
Thankyou, very thought provoking
Hopefully more insight with TSL results on Thursday
I shall also be looking out at Companies House for ClearPay Finance Ltd (Co no 05198026.) accounts to 30/6/20 to see what can be gleaned. They were published last time on 24/6/20. There was a loan from APT of £25m which increased to £50m in Dec 2019 and paid interest at 3.75%. I'm expecting much more detail in them for 2020
Ps
APT could have a turbulent day on Monday following the selloff on Friday
I will be adding TSL if so

From memory APT active customer nos were 13.1m cf 13.4m that some of the more adventurous analysts were forecasting. However, UK was 1.6m up from 1m in Nov and the star performer.
The two CEO sold 0.25% of their holdings for a charity foundation AND the APT share price is now back to where it was in MID Jan
Looking forward to the TSL half year report on Thursday and the APT 3rd 1/4 update in about 5 weeks time
Read through valuation (despite Sterling strength) is 112p

I would add:
Sales in line with broker consensus
Transaction losses down from 1% to 0.7%
Income from late fees down (good for customer quality and the regulators)
UK active customers in Dec 1.6m up from 1m in Nov!
TSL results were on 4 March last yr

Whilst Apt finished a modest +1.3% up at 151.9 Aud it was up 6% at 193.5 one stage and a within a gnat's pube of its all time high. Morgan Stanley lifted its forecast to 170 Aud, interestingly due to its industry leading repeat purchase metric and the early stage of its other offerings. Next week's trading update should hopefully give details. Bell Potter has a similar view and tgt still at 198 Aud.. Apt has the research spotlight of an Asx 30 company whilst TSL has to my knowledge no analyst following except the indomitable Simon Thompson

Dan
Apt confirmed yesterday that they will be on 25th

JT93
Despite a M Cap of £90m there is no broker research. Management are hugely invested and the options make the holding like a Deep Discounted Bond. So in my opinion, sit back and enjoy whilst adding on dips when you can trade in 30k lots within the spread. all IMHO

Apt hit 4th day consecutive high, before slight drop off. Interestingly though the M Cap of AFRM is almost the same as APT now

Apt hit new intra day high of 156.5 Aud

I think that I will need a bigger cake stand

Apt Q1 results due 25/2, set early alarm clock!

Paypal's stonking success in first Q 0ffering BNPL in US indicate that APT'S US customer nos will be astonishing. APT at record high of 151.3 +3.4%

Teelabrown
Reading the Apt 1st Q detailed segmental analysis will be revealing. The Aux disclosures are very detailed and make our RNS information look very spartan. I think you are correct in your assumption at the moment and perhaps for the next 6 months but North America will dominate more before the option is exercised. I still think that the growth in value of APT will be considerable over this period but we will be less than 10% of the cake which will have evolved into a fabulous Sachertorte. Looking forward to my slice with eager anticipation - just don't want it too soon!
All IMHO

TeelaBrown
I am unsure about the liquidity discount but safer to assume it will remain in place.
What I think will skew the calculation will be the growth in other markets, predominantly North America and then Asia and Europe ie The UK slice will diminish but the cake will be larger

Surprised
It was actually up yesterday
The Tuesday closing spread was 71-73 ie mid 72p but showed as an 80p close for some spurious reason
Wed opened at 72 p but showed as an initial (8p, 10%) drop and increased to (15.5%) before ending at (5.5%) which was in reality a rise to 75.5p
A lot of late trade notifications showed at yesterdays close from Tuesday including a purchase of 30k of mine

APT news release gives the Clearpay 2/2 press release in respect of the Woolard review. More importantly it confirms greater than 1.2m active users.
Goldman Sachs anticipate that their APT net margin could be >than their 2% expectation due to reduced losses. Put this in the context of the credit card charges and the review all seems to be a storm in a teacup.
Good to see TSL finishing up yesterday on a high volume mainly down day. Apt up 1.5% today

Surprised
I would add that Apt is a £21.9bn co cf Tsl £85 (of which they own 90%) and they are a year ahead of us in terms of regulation and how to comply. Teh upside is now circa !00% and this is on where we are now, not then the option is exercised

I did also. Low volume trading in Apt today and came off from 149 Aud. Sentiment seems to have been that the recommendations in the Woolard Review were fairly benign

CB
I think that the problem is no broker research .
Treat it as a Deep Discounted Bond. With the 5.4% drop in APTtoday, the redemption value on where APT is now is north of 125p.
So in simple terms, it is the growth in APT value to 2023/24 redemption that is important and the discount will continue to then. If held to maturity, this doesn't matter. The interesting metrics to watch are customer numbers, average spend and margin net of loss. Going forward, it is key to analyse the UK proportion and trends and take into account the maturity of the AUZ market and the explosive growth in North America to be followed by Europe and Asia. APT provides truly excellent quarterly analysis. A very worthwhile read ahead of UK market opening. Two possible clouds are a) potential financial regulation but people are getting free credit so in my view this is driven by the credit card cos and the lesser risk b) political risk ie the new socialist president - will he try and neuter Americas world beating companies and this have a knock on effect on world tech & fintech values - my view is probably. However IMO there is a very profitable journey to redemption.

Chasbrown
An exceptional cause and thankyou for the reminder.
Having donated to SITRAN in Sheffield in the past to buy equipment for them, I will look at doing something again this year as it has been a while