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As I have posted previously, they key transactional risk is whether CNEL can raise enough money at a high enough valuation in HK. That, along with a bunch of PIs who are selling having made good money on the way up are the reason the price is where it is

If you believe that the HK fundraise at a price to lock in the HKD500m de minimis valuation is 100% guaranteed you should be buying because that's the only thing that can stop the relisting now. Clearly some people are taking the view that it isn't 100% guaranteed

The upside isn't bolted on. Posters here keep saying this but it isn't true. The remaining uncertainty is the ability of the HK entity to raise enough money at the right price to (a) meet the minimum market cap requirements (b) satisfy HKEX's liquidity considerations
Everyone has their own calculation of that risk, but it isn't zero. Hence the current discount to the announced expected list price range. If you think the discount applied for the risk is too great you buy. Too little and you sell. Fwiw I think it's about right. But if the risk reduces and/or the discount gets bigger I may buy some more

So anyone buying now is either going to have to sell prior to delisting or accept physical certificates in the HK listed entity. Physical certs are extremely cumbersome to trade
I wonder if those buying now appreciate that this is the situation?
I bought a chunk months ago that I will let run through the relisting process. But I also bought a couple of weeks ago and I've sold today due to the issue with selling paper cert shares

RNS will have to be released pre market opening tomorrow. Not to say there may be a chance to snap a few up at the bell. Suspect after an hour or two it'll be a long way up on Friday's close

The fundraising will be by e-auction so the company is in the hands of the bidders. They will have the opportunity to topslice the bids if that gives them the valuation they need.
For example, they may receive bids between 10p and 15p. Providing they get enough 15p bids to convince the HKEX that it will result in a fair and liquid market it will list at 15p post money. It will all boil down to the size of the bids at various prices. They have to raise enough to convince HKEX that it will result in a liquid market

This GBP26m figure keeps getting mentioned

It's wrong. The reporting currency is RMB. It is RMB26m, or about GBP3m. There won't be any dividend on this share for the foreseeable future whilst it continues to grow

That's why they need to raise money in HK for the HK listing. This will set a valuation for the shares in HK. So, for example, they persuade HK investors to buy GBP5m of shares at a valuation of GBP46m pre money. This gives a valuation of GBP51m which is the HKEX minimum valuation

Minimum Market Cap for HKEX is HKD500m which is GBP51m today
They will be obliged to raise in HK at listing. Say the minimum raise is HKD50m. That means the pre money valuation will be HKD450m or GBP46m. That's 10.4p per share

Of course, depending on investor demand they may price the listing higher. But that's the minimum opening price assuming a HKD50m fundraise

AIM shares are replaced by HKEX shares at the point of delisting off AIM (they have to give 10 working days notice of this)
Then you have to figure out how to sell your HKEX shares, or hold them. Up to you
If HKEX sounds too difficult the alternative is to sell the AIM shares shortly before delisting. Depends on where the AIM price finishes up relative to the price it might open on HKEX

The relisting, even if HKEX give approval, isn't a done deal. They need to raise to finally get to a market cap of HKD500m
So that can be a raise of HKD100m @ HKD400m valuation pre money or some other combination. But if they fail to attract HK investors at these valuation the relisting won't happen
I'm not saying it won't happen. But HKEX approval is only one component of the relisting. Try not to get carried away by posters saying the 11p per share is in the bag. It isnt

It's important to remember that there are more hurdles to overcome after the GM

We have to get HKEK approval for the listing, this hasn't been granted yet

The company will also need to raise cash at the listing at a very substantial premium to the current market cap

I'm not saying the relisting won't happen. Just that the GM is a small part of the process

If you want your posts to have the desired effect then you need to get your facts right.

1) Yes there is a big upside in the share price
2) There is risk

The risks are that HKEX may reject the listing application and that the Company may not be able to raise the funding it wants to raise when listing on HKEX

What you have to do is work out what the minimum HKEX listing share price will be then apply whatever discounts you think should be applied for risks (1) and (2). If your number is above current share price, buy if you can afford it. The discounts for risks (1) and (2) are not zero. But, in my opinion, having done a lot of research (hence my relatively late entry point of about 2.75), the risk discount currently applied to the price makes it attractive

The company share price on AIM does not need to reach the minimum market cap share price on HKEX (which would be 11p minus any HKEX fundraising). It would probably be beneficial for them to be reasonably close so as to result in an orderly market post HKEX listing but the listing price on HKEX will be a function of the market cap for any HKEX fundraise, not the AIM share price

Don't forget that if the company raises money upon HKEX listing your 11p calculation needs recalculation. Minimum market cap is HKD500m but if they raise, say, HKD50m then the pre money valuation of CNEL will be HKD450m which is 10p

It's still a great opportunity as the market is overdiscounting the risk of a failure to relist, mainly because UK retail investors don't understand HKEX IPOs

When CNEL delists from AIM your AIM shares will be in some shell private company and thus worthless. You will then have the equivalent shares in the HK listed entity
If you cannot trade those yourself via a HK broker you will need to have them transferred into a UK broker account who has a counterparty arrangement with a HK broker. This way you can instruct the UK broker to sell if you wish and they will give the sell order to the HK counterparty broker who will handle the HKEX trade. Your UK broker will then make these shares available to the HK broker to tf and complete the sale

Because most holders have no idea how the HKEX listing process works, the importance of the Clans, the minimum market cap on HKEX listing etc etc

Those that do understand can see what's going on here. Transactional play to 11p, then who knows where it will go?

Next key milestone is notification by CNEL that the application (which is currently under review by HKEX) has been approved. At that point the arbitrage is clear and the price will quickly race up towards 11p
I'm very familiar with the UK listing process, somewhat less so with HKEX. However, it seems to be similar in that the prospectus is batted back and forth between HKEX and the Company (in reality the Sponsor) with a variety of questions. Once HKEX are satisfied with the replies they will approve the prospectus
I find comfort in the fact that CNEL has taken out more than GBP1m of CLNs at 4.5p to fund the listing process, these loans secured by personal guarantees by the directors.

That was my 300k share buy today

I've been sitting on the sidelines doing my research on CNEL and I'm happy to invest now. This for me is a pure transactional play. Can they get a relist onto HKEX? If they can it will be at the HKD equivalent of about 11p. I've done my research and talked to sponsors and brokers I know in HK (but not involved with this listing) to get a feel for the likelihood. On the basis of what they told me I've decided to buy
If others on the sidelines do the same DD they may come to the same conclusion. Rarely do you see a 400% uplift opportunity that is dependent on something that can be quite easily understood and predicted. The only reason the price is where it is is because UK retail investors aren't familiar with the HKEX listing process and are applying (in my opinion) too heavy a discount

1. You do know that Altona doesn't have an exploration license to conduct UCG don't you? They tried to buy it from Tri Star but Tri Star flat refused 2. Zero chance of getting a Nomad so it will delist from AIM. They might move to NEX though as there is a fast track procedure for this

What happens in practice is at valuable asset held in a subsidiary of the MySquar topco is sold for buttons and shifted into some non-Mysquar company. MySquar topco is then wound up and shareholders get nothing There is no incentive for any of the management to keep valuable assets under the topco. Much better for them, personally, to give them out and let the topco disppear