Member Info for DV2026

OK impressive work then. I am in as I wrote earlier long since end april but do not trade, want to see what happens in Q3/Q4. GLA

Jimmy, my background is quants math and economics. Did work on that in the 90ties. Never consistently made a penny, with focus on the word year after year consistently. Made my money in SME business and value investing, boring but works for me. As stated ASOS is a turnaround play for me with limited exposure. You claiming here consistent profits from Asos daytrading is almost 99 % sure fake news. Jim Simons chased 51 % right ratio and he was a genius. The level of BS here between certain persons is unbelievable.

Larcos, a better song for you every breath you take from the Police.

Could be Larco but who cares, i do not. Personally I do not buy day trading or technicals but everubody has their own style. Let them. Anyway, a +15% weekly move is large enough that it almost certainly has a fundamental catalyst rather than being purely technical. I have no clue what that catalyst is, weather and insider buying or ?. Also a lot these days is pure momentum. My bet is the turnaround will deliver enough new info next 12 months that a push up of the value is in the cards. Some talk about 10, i would be extremely happy with 5 and move on.

You do not know what Barker knows, pure speculation. Atlanta is of a different order in terms of cash. purpose-built automation equipment is typically harder to monetise but I would welcome it as a further underpinning to refinancing debt and better unit economics. Connecting this to getting back to 10 is pure hope. The fundamentals in terms of business , mainly growth of active customers, less churn, further improvement of GM % up to 50 without burning more marcom spend, and improvement of 3 weeks cycle of products are key. If we get on top of that good macro news, stable logistics from the east, and a fair playing field in competition (APAC subsidies....) this will move back to 10. A lot of ifs. I am long but this case is far from evident and high risk. Most here have a pretty big mouth and most likely a small wallet.

Over 1500 posts on a stock you claim to hate — that's not analysis Larco , that's a serious toxic relationship. You've got one actual argument (partly correct but priced in) you've been copy-pasting it ever since while ignoring every turnaround signal because updating your view would rob you of the only thing these posts give you: the "I told you so." Maybe spend less time tracking Jimmy's buy price and more time wondering why the smartest bears moved on long ago and you're still here. Sarcasm instead of analysis, not good for your health.

AI-generated analysis that pulled stale data , just look at the modelled estimates. Useless and bold claims.

Matt, stick to Asos comments here svp. Some of them from you are good and the best one is admitting you lost on ASOS. That happens to all traders/investors as the role of chance in investment outcomes is far larger than most will admit. Nobody wants generalistic advice here. It adds nothing and disturbs a healthy debate based on the business Asos. My take remains the same, H2 asos needs to show further improvement on active customer base. The app rating of Asos is pretty good in customer experience, the trust pilot one is not good with 1.8 . Could be that the complaining/disappointed customers complete more reviews but Next is almost 4.3, shein at 3.8, boohoo at 2,5 frasers at 3.3 and zalando at 1.5 , M%S at 1.7......

The concept of a turnaround is first stop the bleeding and pick low hanging fruit. It is very normal to say goodbye to loss making customers that visited Asos for promotions buying 30 items and sending 29 back. It is also very textbook stuff to sell some of your assets to survive balance sheet stress. Remember they had 1 Billion in stock due to mismanagement! They had to do this with macro headwinds in an extremely brutal consumer segment like fashion is and will always be. I disagree with your focus on operational tightening as the main cause of margin improvement. It has been made very clear in the calls and documents that it is a structural shift in the commercial model with close to zero mark downs in pricing, substantial part of sales now in a 3 weeks design cycle (so less warehouse space needed) and new partner Flexible Fulfilment fees. These are real revenue-quality improvements, not just expense reductions. In the H1 documents released by Asos marketing spend increased already 50 bps yoy, there are many ways to spend marketing and the key thing is do you believe the conversion strategy will be better in the coming period for Asos especially also outside UK. You are framing it like there is zero light in the tunnel while their is proof Asos is already doing this (increasing margins and increasing markering spend). I have read in the documents H1 FY26 Interim Results, p.1]: "New customers, a strong lead indicator of topline growth, at c.+10% YoY in the UK. In our top four markets, new customer performance on a 6-month rolling basis has reached growth of +2% YoY for H1 FY26 compared to –12% YoY at the end of FY25, representing 13 consecutive months of improvement." That is not stabilisation Matt. As stated by me, the KPI to judge H2 on is will churn end and active customer base grow, or what they call pillar 3.

New here but MattDCFC is technically the most sound in reasoning although very biased to the bear side and makes me wonder why spending so much time on this stock but also does not give credit to the gross margin improvement, cash injection and UK new customers. Seems to me the market for now agrees with him and I personally welcome challenging my current long position. Most others on here look to me like frustrated long term longs and that makes complete sense to me taken the SP trajectory. The shorts at 1,45 % is just noise and not a catalyst up or down, I ignore it.

WTF? if that is true I am out here.

WTF? if that is true I am out here.

This deal doesn't change the operating trajectory, but it buys time so it is a positive for the turnaround — additional runway is created. The company now has credible liquidity to reach September 2028 without needing a dilutive equity raise, provided turnaround does not fail. Atlanta is also on the radar, but unclear how much that would add in cash. Management stated in last Friday investor call that warehouse capacity is not an obstacle for new growth and that the trend of H1 continued in H2 so far.

The drop/rise of the SP monitoring per day is a waste of time (unless you are daytrading) , same like the takeover wishes but it is certainly a realistic scenario with nr 3 as the king maker. I just try to monitor the story and its elements. Selling the warehouse was on my list so far I am on track but anything can happen. The key thing in H2 is stop active customer losses (churn) and see if they can copy past womans wear improvement in other segments. All in all, good news.

My last reply for now, again some valid points but in speculation waiting for "enough" evidence means you are missing the fat part. In investing you can do this, wait for some years and still get a 5 - 10 bagger but not here. I accept the risks here as the loss in the mix in my porfolio is very low. The last two turnarounds for me failed, the one prior to that worked 1:7. I am not going to wait 3 years if you know what I am saying. Good weekend.

No, investment is driven by long holding periods and lower risks profiles and intrinsic value zone estimates etc. I have investments in stocks some since 2008 and will not sell them easily, for example Berkshire. Speculation is a different breed, bet on short term price movements driven by news / catalyst accepting potential high loss.

Matt, you are confusing investment with speculation. Asos is not an investment for me but a speculation, it is currently a turnaround bet where you size accordingly. A fundamental investment is driven , at least for me, by a completely other toolkit. There is nothing wrong with speculation as long as you are aware of it that it is not investing. You have raised some valid points.

Interesting reads, I am going to follow it as part of my further DD. Anyway, what I noticed is that some confuse book equity with solvency. That is too simplistic imho in cases like this, it ignores the cash available and undrawn options. I do agree that Asos has a balance sheet problem, for me the high risk is the 2028 convertible among of course valid stated business developments here at the forum. Statements regarding oil prices and macro I completely ignore as all retail faces these. This is generic macro, impossible to forecast. As I mentioned before, the latest update does provide some positive highlights but if margins can go back to 50 % without substantial marcom investments is a ? Some analyst have clearly stated that the mix shift is real and improving, for what it is worth of course (DYOR). The hope of some regarding a takeover is unknowable. I thought about this and what is a positive indicator is the increase of Camelot Capital (17,11 %). He is a financial investor, asos is only 6.5 % of his AUM but he is an insider and ecommerce expert. If you buy 4 M on a day I know only one reason , selling 1001. Polvsne (29,01 %) wants to protect Topshop JV and his business on the platform. Frasers not sure but his brands can be distributed via Asos . My take is that the last two have an incentive to block each other, I also read a statement by an anonymous employee that a takeover by Frasers would not be preferred because of their way of working. Anyway, small holders have time on their side IF IF the turnaround does not stall. Why, because each new quarter that proves the way up is real it raises the floor. I would love to see competing bids from two motivated bidders with deep pockets. The average bid in the UK has a premium of 43 % but some exceeded over 100 %. The VCP of 6,6 pounds is nice as it is a hard alignment with small holders. All in all, I decided to take a small position long. One thing, some here are bears but it is a mystery to me why you would spend so much time on it then. GLA.

Dear Matt, the overall framing is that of someone who researched ASOS 18 months ago and hasn't updated their model. Most of the claims describe FY22–FY23 ASOS, not FY25–FY26 ASOS. Gross margin compression, rising inventory days, and negative EBITDA margins have all reversed.Every metric is presented at its worst historical reading with no acknowledgment of the turnaround trajectory. Gross margin going from 40% to 48.5% is a material fact that any honest analysis would engage with, even if sceptically. New customer acquisition is up +2% across top four markets, +10% in the UK, and +9% Group-wide in March — thirteen consecutive months of improvement. If you're making a bear case about structurally weak unit economics, you need to address the fact that the customer acquisition engine has re-ignited. The ROIC-below-WACC point is almost certainly true. The 2028 convertible bond at 11% coupon is a genuine structural risk. In terms of Peter Lynch this is a turnaround story. If you go for this , wait or watch from the sidelines is a personal call.

At £2.49, the market is valuing ASOS at just 3.5x FY26E EBITDA Challenged mid-tier fashion e-commerce businesses in 2025 trade at 7 EV/EBITDA, while healthier online retail businesses command 10–16x. The market is pricing in permanent impairment of the business — which the H1 FY26 results are starting to contradict. The tone of the call was the most optimistic I heard in 3 years. The "we are delivering" narrative is repeated too often. When CEOs needs to tell you they're delivering repeatedly, they're pitching to maintain confidence. Calamonte should buy some shares himself instead. The revenue trajectory is still deeply negative, and the company is loss-making on a statutory basis. A more measured tone would build more credibility. Next months I look for:

1. Does the active customer base actually grow? It was 16.5m in H1 FY26. This needs to be at or above 17m at FY26 year-end to validate the turnaround thesis.

2. Does womenswear sustain positive growth through Q3/Q4?

3. Full-year EBITDA — upper or lower half of £150–180m?

4. Free cash flow — does broadly neutral actually mean neutral?

5. AI Studios — does it show up in conversion data?

6. Lichfield warehouse disposal.

The 2028 bond obligation. A well-capitalised bidder (Frasers has significant cash; Bestseller/Povlsen is a billionaire) can refinance this bond at far lower rates — stripping out the 11% coupon and the 120% redemption premium. The annual interest saving alone would be approximately £15–20m .The debt is a problem for standalone ASOS but a value creation opportunity for an acquirer. This is exactly the kind of arbitrage that motivates strategic buyouts. Furthermore, frasers has a strategic interest in Asos to sell his brands and Povlsen sells for 60 million products as a supplier. Frasers and Bestseller face real costs: Ashley is tying up capital in a non-controlling position that generates no synergy value until he achieves control, and Povlsen is paying fees on the Topshop JV and watching his largest e-commerce investment trade at 3.5x EBITDA. The longer the standoff continues, the more pressure builds on one of them to act.

Under the UK Takeover Code, the board's independent directors must opine on any offer. If (did not chedck this) the CEO and CFO have a VCP threshold at £6.70, they have a fiduciary interest in arguing the company is worth more than any bid below that level — and a personal financial interest too.

Debt maturity, the VCP, and the ownership concentration all converge in the 2027–2028 window. Something must resolve. Either the turnaround delivers sufficient free cash flow and refinancing capacity to clear the bond or a bidder moves before the maturity to capture the turnaround value at a discount to intrinsic The risk scenario — turnaround stalls, refinancing fails, forced dilutive equity raise — is the one to size against, and Camelot's continued buying suggests the insider view is that this outcome is not the base case.