RE: Article 're Oil1 Mar 2020 14:48
There are predictions that global oil demand will drop by 3-million barrels per day because of the Coronavirus contagion. So why is China stocking-up?In the SARS contagion starting in November 2002, constraints on flying and public transport increased driving, which is much less fuel-efficient.SARS was controlled by mid-2003, but the disruptions to transport continued until early 2005. China’s oil consumption went up by 11% in 2003 and by 16.5% in 2004.Extrapolating the China/SARS model for “what-if COVID-19 goes global”,spits-out a number of nine-million barrels per day of extra oil demand in 2020.Long oil and long offshore E&P.
Yesterday, world-wide, one hundred-times more people died from malariathan died from COVID-19/coronavirus. But the economic cost from contagion is not human suffering; it is the restrictions on travel put in place to contain it.
Over nine months SARS infected 8,098 people, 774 died (9.6% fatality). Over the first few months of the COVID-19 contagion, 78,635 people were infected and 2,459 died (3.1% fatality). IEA is predicting a collapse in demand for oil.
What’s the cure?
Easy; stop flying, and don’t take public transport. Drive, with the windows closed and the ventilation on re-cycle. Don’t; whatever you do, book your dream cruise; and above all, stay out of jail.
I looked it up on Wikipedia. Apparently, in 2010, flying burned 2,691 British Thermal Units per passenger-mile, driving burned 4,218; 43% more.
This is what happened in China during the SARS travel lockdown which was in place for all of 2003 and 2004.
No wonder, today, when the whole world is cutting back oil deliveries, China has started to stockpil
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