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n announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of our nation, Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral threat, with numbers of cases surging daily, I’m not sure that any prime minister would have acted very differently.

But I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and NHS consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science – fields which, all too often, are characterised by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

Initial reported figures from China and Italy suggested a death rate of 5 per cent to 15 per cent, similar to Spanish flu. Given that cases were increasing exponentially, this raised the prospect of death rates that no healthcare system in the world would be able to cope with. The need to avoid this scenario is the justification for measures being implemented: the Spanish flu is believed to have infected about one in four of the world’s population between 1918 and 1920, or roughly 500 million people with 50 million deaths. We developed pandemic emergency plans, ready to snap into action in case this happened again.

At the time of writing, the UK’s 422 deaths and 8,077 known cases give an apparent death rate of 5 per cent. This is often cited as a cause for concern, contrasted with the mortality rate of seasonal flu, which is estimated at about 0.1 per cent. But we ought to look very carefully at the data. Are these figures really comparable?

Most of the UK testing has been in hospitals, where there is a high concentration of patients susceptible to the effects of any infection. As anyone who has worked with sick people will know, any testing regime that is based only in hospit

of course it has not locked down a country but neither has a virus, that in over 95% who get it is just that.

Anyway let's move on.

Depends if you believe what you 're told mate.

one could argue varicose points on the subject but wete all helping the cause here by investing in a potential cure or help

Dusterhater

let's keep this virus in perspective shall we. the 7k for you qouted on Spain

The same amount pass due to cancer heart issues every week. yes that's every week and here it's near 10k per week

lithological heterogeneities: 17 MAR.....14 day dosing trial started. 26 MAR.....Placing for £14m including £4m to manufacture SNG001. 31 MAR.....14 day dosing trial ends. CONCLUSION: After already dosing patients for 8-9 days of 14 day dosing trial they raised £4m to manufacture SNG001. They would not do this if it failed. Conclusion: SUCCESSFUL TRIAL. Initial observations/results by end of week, either officially or a leak imho. They will not be able to keep this quiet. Just not possible. Lots of patients/familes,nurses,doctors. News is bound to leak.

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My opinion is you will see a little fettling starting mid April then may June 70% normality Setember normal.

Can't go on like this past April imho

Can't see it going on until June at a push some restrictions will have to go as long as it's showing to slow.

My biggest gripe is why are we not antibody testing as the Gupta lady from Oxford has suggested half of us have had it already this allowing restrictions to be lifted

Germany is testing nearly a million a week soon why are we so slow in this country.

Or is the plan go ruin us all with the virus as the excuse

Is it that there incompetent or have other motives??

WTF ATE THIS BUNCH OF CLOWNS DOING GOVE ET AL

DO THEY WANT TBIS TO DRAG OUT FOR MONTHS ON END

ATIBODY TESTING IS KEY TO LIFE RETURNING TO NEAR normal

indeed skittish spot on

It's as if this shower give st so want this dragging out as long S poss

get the kits out and test folk antibody testing is key.

ALSO IS FERGUSON A PAYED PUPPET FOR THE GOVERNMENT GUPTA CALLED HIM OUT

Why is this. government of clowns so slow to roll tbis out en masse

If as I suspect more have had it restrictions can be lifted soon.

It's as if if they want to drag the out as much as they can.

SORT IT BORIS

torham

Do you really believe these CROOKS RUNNING the world play with a full hand??

And why did the Chinese and the west allow freedom of movement to Europe ftom China and elsewhere when if you say it's a potent desease.

am open to thoughts all round

Spot on mate.

But what's the end game in all this clearly the bent leaders have an agenda and as you say it's the media that portray there agenda of fear into a brain dead society who believe the carp.

So in a month or so when the game is up then what and for what reason did it start??

It's morbid but 1400 cop it each day with cancers heart and other ils.

A paper by Imperial College London has predicted that if the country follows the same trajectory as China did, it could see between 4,700 and 7,100 deaths.

And the peak of the outbreak, which could see between 210 and 330 people die in a single day, could happen next Sunday on April 5, it predicted.

The study estimated that the true death figure would be around 5,700 - the figure is considerably lower than the 20,000 warned about in the doomsday scenario paper which convinced the Government to tighten up its efforts to stop the virus. 

That claim, published by Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the Government's leading COVID-19 advisers, warned that tens of thousands could die if people weren't forced to stay at home. 

A new projection from the same university, developed by engineer Professor Tom Pike, compared eight countries' death rates to China's after Beijing put the nation into shutdown. 

It showed that up to 41,000 people could still die in the US, 60,000 in Spain, 32,000 in Italy and 23,000 in France. 

It comes after another paper this week said countries around the world have averted disaster by sending their citizens into lockdown and that 40million could have died if they hadn't.

More than a billion people worldwide are now in some form of lockdown as the number of confirmed coronavirus patients has soared past 500,000 - but the dramatic measures are saving millions of lives, said another study from Imperial.

It said that almost the entire world population - seven billion citizens - could have been infected if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked. 

+8

The data shows the UK's total deaths from coronavirus are currently estimated at 5,700, if the country follows the path China took after introducing a lockdown there. Spain could now be the worst-hit nation with more than 45,000 deaths

+8

The estimates for the UK - if it follows the same trajectory as China - shows the UK could have 5,700 deaths, and the peak would be 260 fatalities on April 5

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I think we get the gist of it.

SAUDI SAY NO DEALToday 17:39

"Saudi Arabia says no talks on new oil deal."

I think that is clear to understand.

Saudi Arabia says no talks on new oil deal as Moscow suggests larger OPEC+

Saudi Arabia says no talks on new oil deal as Moscow suggests larger OPEC+

Reuters  | Mar 27, 2020 16:55

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By Katya Golubkova, Rania El Gamal and Alex Lawler

MOSCOW/DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia said on Friday it was not in talks with Russia to balance oil markets despite rising pressure from Washington to stop a price rout amid the coronavirus pandemic and an attempt by Moscow to fix a rift with the de facto OPEC leader.

A three-year supply pact between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, fell apart this month after Moscow refused to support Riyadh's plan for deeper production cuts, prompting Saudi Arabia to pledge to raise output to a record high.

The resulting supply boost has coincided with plummeting demand as governments around the world implement national lockdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The twin-pronged assault on prices has sent Brent crude (LCOc1) to a 17-year low below $25 a barrel and hammered the income of oil producers.

"There have been no contacts between Saudi Arabia and Russia energy ministers over any increase in the number of OPEC+ countries, nor any discussion of a joint agreement to balance oil markets," an official from Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said, referring to the wider grouping of oil producers.

The comment came after a senior Russian official said on Friday that a larger number of oil producers could cooperate with OPEC and Russia, in an indirect reference to the United States, the world's biggest producer which has never cut production.

"Joint actions by countries are needed to restore the (global) economy ... They (joint actions) are also possible in the OPEC+ deal's framework," said Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund.

Dmitriev and Energy Minister Alexander Novak were Russia's top negotiators for the previous OPEC pact, which officially expires on March 31. Dmitriev declined to say which nations could be included in a new deal.

The deal between OPEC and Russia broke after Moscow declined to support bigger output curbs arguing that it was too early to estimate the impact from the pandemic.

Officials and oil executives in Russia have been split on the need for cuts with Dmitriev and Novak supporting cooperation while the head of Kremlin oil major Rosneft Igor Sechin has criticised the cuts as providing a lifeline to the less competitive U.S. shale industry. President Vladimir Putin has said little since the OPEC + deal collapsed.

"ECONOMIC WARFARE"

The idea of Washington cooperating with OPEC has long been seen as impossible, not least because of U.S. antitrust laws, but U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his anger with the cartel because its actions lead to higher prices at the pump.

However, Saudi Arabia's latest move has put Washington

Rookie

The testing his the get out of jail card

My opinion is the same as the Oxford lady's article over half have had tbis virus

once you test the first 3 odd mill which is planned they will do the exit poll so to speak on the numbers that will be the key point and they won't have to test all of us.

Today 07:37

Government policy was based on flawed model it seems.
"Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Only way to truly find out the scale is mass testing once the numbers are in life and normality will resume