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Dr A
I suspect that Peel will not be able to operate the recycling plants on Protos until ours is operational. Otherwise they will be paying for waste to be carted off. So it's in Peel's interest to get our site completed as soon as possible, and the plant running.
Their representative, Ian Crockford, is contractually responsible for getting the buildings put up, and will shortly know when that should be. But Powerhouse will be responsible for then building, running and testing the machinery. Ian Crockford won't know when that will be. That will come from Powerhouse engineers.
it wouldn't surprise me if the building is ready by Q2 2022, and that Peel has allowed for the whole site to be running by 2023, including our plant. All machinery in all the buildings will have to be operational for the site to work. It's possible, that as part of the commissioning of our plant, that waste plastic will be brought in. This would be sufficient to test it and show it to potential buyers. That could be before the whole site is operational. So lots of dates and planning for Tim to give us
It's clear Ian Crockford is controlling the project, and now that he is on seat things should start to happen. He will appoint the contractor, who will advise on his start date. Hopefully all the project design work is already completed in-house. Ian will also be responsible for the procurement of all non-engineering materials. The contractor probably has completion dates within his contract, so once Ian knows when he will start, he should be able to advise us also of both start and finish. dates
The RNS was interesting because it lays out the information an accountant would ask for before making an investment. I think the aim is to show the cost and returns expected from Ivory Coast. This will interest any Company already mining there, as it will add to their scale, with possibly some cost savings. This will allow interested parties to contact Centamin and possibly make offers for the whole Ivory Coast business. I don't see any value in Batie.
As for the price decline, It wouldn't surprise me to see Black Rock increase their shareholding this week, alongside a short plus CFD buy at 115p
ITM down on morgan stanley downgrade due to their profit share scheme with Linde, reducing flows.
Sunday Times reported heavy lobbying by oil majors who want to provide grey or brown hydrogen, which they say is currently cheaper than green. In any case there is insufficient excess power from wind and solar for additional hydrogen, and there is no evidence that the Government is pressurising SSE et al for more farms. In fact SSE has said that it will start building windfarms overseas. All this suggests Government isn't that interested in green hydrogen yet, unlike EU and US.
It strikes me that Peel want to be able to show local authorities how waste will be sifted with eventually plastic being converted into hydrogen. So the site will contain various pieces of plant with ours being the last stage in the process.
So Peel is selling a complete green model. It might have been better if PHE had issued shares and built their own plant in isolation. Waste plastic could have been brought in.
Forgive me if this has already been posted but In Australia, Wildlife Energy also produces hydrogen from waste plastic using their moving injection horizontal gasification process. They have a pilot plant working and have received a grant from the Queensland Government to help fund a full-sized plant. If this is up and running before Powerhouse, we could have serious competition, especially in the Far East and possibly other countries depending on when their plant starts up.
My understanding is that Protos will be built two months sooner, bringing forward third party reviews, by the investment parties to be introduced. This should also bring forward sales.
PHE will need project engineers to plan the installations to meet clients' specs. There will be room for a future development engineer, to improve or increase the size of the equipment. But I can understand why he might not be interested in either
Forecast section in RNS points to min. 400k ozs and AISC including all planned capex at max $1250/oz. Based on gold at $1800/oz, gives Revenues of $720 million and costs of $500 million, profit $220 million with 50% for us.
This compares with $300 million this year, with just over $150 million for us.
Their tax year ends December 31st. They are putting through the income this year. Presumably higher income and more shares coming next year.
Hi Sotolo
My fag packet worst case scenario from before suggested 4th quarter Profit $14 million, and AISC at $1540 which appears to be good. Profit for 2020 should be just below $300 million.
Bust based on 2021 projected production and AISC figures in RNS, that will fall to $200 million next year, about 15% better than 2019 figure (assuming POG at $1850). Price end 2019 was 100p-120p
Hi Sotolo
I have a bigger fag packet. Last year PBT was $173 million (before EMRA pay-out)
1st half 2020
Sales $449 million
AISC costs($900/oz) $243 m
other costs $15m
total costs $258m
PBT $191m
3rd quarter
Sales $222m (120,000 oz @ $1850 estimate)
AISC costs ($900/oz) $108m
others $ 8m
Total costs $116m
PBT $106m
4th quarter Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Sales $130m (70,000ozs@$1850 $130m
AISC costs ($1100/oz)$77m $108m (costs fixed at 3rd quarter level - AISC $1540)
others $ 8m $ 8m
Total costs $85m $116m
PBT $45m $ 14m
2nd half PBT $151m $120m
Full year PBT $342m $311m
Possible AISC costs higher 2nd half as extra $50 million on capex and don't know if total averaged in first half or not
therefore PBT $292m $261
I am happy to be shot down but both above numbers much higher than last year. This is due to much higher price of gold.
70,000 of the 90,000 ounces of the high grade ore affected was to be mined this year, leaving only 20,000 in next year's plan. There is time to find an alternative.
This year's PBT will still be well ahead of last year's, even though production will fall from 480,000 to about 446,000 ounces.
directors usually take advice from accountants about when and how many shares to sell, based on minimising income tax due. Canadian tax year is January to December with 5 progressive tax rates from 15% to 33% on over $214,000. So it could be as simple as that. I am guessing that once producing, salaries and share bonuses will rise (next year?), so they are selling some shares now. Many countries re looking at increasing taxes next year to cover Covid costs.
stormrider, the q1 production I saw in RNS was 116k, not 106 you quoted. I assumed 3q likely to be above q1 but below q2, but maybe that's wishful thinking. Still leaves q4 with a lot to do, but possible given open-pit grade rising from 0.75g/t in graph approx to 1g+ in narrative.
But time will tell