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Hi Tav,
I think the following from the BUPA RNS could well be deemed to be misleading given that the latest information suggests the ongoing interaction with BUPA is to be a series of seminars for medics.
"Bupa UK health insurance customers being considered for checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy will now be offered the smart blood test, which accurately predicts a cancer patient's response to the treatment
ยท The OBD Bupa UK partnership significantly enhances access to CiRT in the UK and reflects Bupa's commitment to leveraging advanced precision medicine testing to transform cancer care"
So the question is what %age of BUPA patients being considered for checkpoint immunotherapy have been offered the CiRT test to date?I strongly suspect the answer as of today would be zero. We certainly know that total sales of CiRT continued at a ludicrously low level at the last update, and most of those will be attributable to the US.
It appears to be a characteristic of this mob that they push out a 'positive' RNS to bump.up the share price whilst deliberately holding back an altogether less positive RNS just a few hours later.
Whatever happened to the non-dilutive financing all those named 3rd parties were clamouring to provide according to the greediest piggy?
We really can't believe a word they say.
So at last we seem to be getting some confirmation that when our board talk of "validated" tests, they are referring to laboratory validation and not the large scale randomised trial validation that doctors require before adopting a test routinely.
I notice too that recent pronouncements about the companies targets for 2024 make no mention of participation in the Transform trial (funded by Prostate Cancer UK and the Government). The probability that OBD will need to fund and manage such trials is a major risk of delay to mass commercial sales and would require further placings to finance. Burrows said participation in Transform was crucial so why isn't it in the company's targets for this year?
Ah. The return of the milkman's son.
If you would have gone to lend your support to the board you would know and wouldn't need to ask. Ignorance, borne of a lack of knowledge seems to follow you through life.
With respect Dibs that's a bit like guaranteeing the sun will set tonight.
The only people with sufficient clout to.make their life difficullt are the II's and even though they must be having doubts about him now, they will have had a major say in hos appointment.
Sadly Burrow's and his cronies don't give a t### about PI's as is evident from the lack of response to the many issues I and others have raised with investor relations. If folks like Aga do go to the AGM I hope they get a hearing but it will probably be stage managed to avoid disturbing the pigs feeding at the trough.
The BoD has a tendency to spin news and cannot be trusted to be transparent with shareholders. The announcement that sales were growing exponentially on a month by month basis is impossible to reconcile with the reality.The BUPA deal was met with a statement that all BUPA patients being considered for immunotherapy would undergo CIRT test has now morphed into a series of seminars aimed at convincing BUPA consultants that they should do so. Validated tests are lab validated only which is a million miles from the standards required for tests that potentially have life changing consequences for those acting on the results. I'd gladly see Burrows and his hangers-on replaced by a completely new board and senior management team. The only thing I believe about them is they virtually all have second jobs. Their salaries ain't bad for part-timers.
..this time it's a threat to the much vaunted product pipeline that 3rd parties are queuing up to licence.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1043762/angle-shares-up-as-nhs-move-reveals-potential-of-liquid-biopsy-systems-1043762.html
The article contains an interesting remark about regulatory approval in the US.
WRT the AGM, It'd be worth asking what regulatory approvals are required for CIRT and PSE before we get unfettered access to the market and to what extent has this impacted commercialisation.
If they suggest it hasn't then I'd ask why they have charged Arivo and Mathis with getting tests included in medical guidance notes.
Hi Agakhan,
Can't find anything about Sean Kramer on OBD's linkedin. I wonder if they were announcing his recent appointment as CDO at Zero Prostate? Zero Prostate is a US based cancer charity that, as far as I'm aware, has no direct association with OBD.
@Dustyslay.
I sold a chunk.of my holding ahead of the placing. The talk of 3rd parties queueing up to buy rights to tests that have only been lab validated and that need to defy the experience of CIRT and PSE to be quick, near-term commercial successes was ridiculous.
I won't be reinvesting until I see a clear strategy to gain proper clinical validation at scale. Burrows belated statement that participation in Transform was critical is hard to reconcile with his ignorance of Transform and his actions. Appointing a 3rd party government lobbyist to pish for inclusion does not suggest it (Transform) is a priority. If they end up financing their own randomised control trial expect at least another tranche of placings.
@ Kong @ Aga.
Don't overlook the Chairman's role in the ongoing fiasco. He has allowed a culture of cronyism to take hold, seems to endorse an out of control burn rate that includes the costs of .3 labs, multiple V.P.'s and S.V.P.'s, attendance at and sponsorship of numerous international conferences. Why is he not demanding clear differentiation of the roles and performance indicators of the burgeoning senior management team. Why is he not insisting on a clear commercialisation strategy when it is clear the current reliance on peer to peer sales is failing?
So to summarise you have no evidence to support your claims of insider trading , just a conspiracy theory style suspicion that it's definitely taking place.
As for naivity, Shore is Nomad to many companies with much larger mcaps than OBD and they have to be licensed by the Stock Exchange to do so. You are accusing them of systematic insider trading on a public Internet forum. That's beyond naive and unless you can back up your claims you might be well advised to desist.
If you do have evidence you can take your evidence to the FCA
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/market-abuse/how-report-suspected-market-abuse-individual
There is much to criticise the BoD over but conspiracy theory style speculation simply detracts from legitimate concerns.
...and of course a Nomad will happily jeopardise an entire business segment, not to mention it's reputation as a trustworthy broker, by partnering a minor client in a spot of criminality. I take it you know their primary responsibility as a Nomad is to ensure compliance with Stock Exchange regulations?
@MrHope.
I think you are overestimating the guile of this BoD.
These are the guys that told us sales were growing exponentially only to publish sales figures showing a decline a few months later. How did that play out for the share price?
They raised now to avoid taking a credit facility whilst interest rates remain high. The investors participated to avoid the value of their existing investments plummeting. The only thing that restores confidence here is a substantial increase in sales and the BoD has told us that won't happen until they get these tests incorporated into medical guidance notes. That is what the 2 latest V.P.'s have been charged with.
Incompetence ineptitude, cronyism and part-time roles for king size wages are bad enough, but now we have folks purporting that the board are providing confidential insider information to the largest shareholder. Come on folks, really???
There's more than enough to criticise this lot for but it lacks credibility to suggest criminality without proof. Anyone that genuinely believes it is happening should report their reasoning and evidence to the NOMAD (Shore Capital).
If they miss out on Transform and have to do large scale randomised control trials for CIRT and PSE they will need a large placing to finance those. The trials will take at least a year to complete and they will need further placings to cover opex during that time.
Hi Tav,
Your analysis of the numbers of sales from national screening programme are spot on. My fear is that missing out on Transform will highlight the scale of the missed opportunity to many that are still taken in by the spin from Burrows. It will also bring the incompetence and ineptitude of the BoD into sharp focus.
If I am right in my suspicion that sales are stalled by the lack of clinical validation then they will miss the quickest, largest and most cost effective way to attain that validation and sales will continue at insignificant levels for the foreseeable future. OBD certainly cannot afford to finance their own randomised control study at a scale that would convince the relevant regulatory bodies. In my opinion the market will respond appropriately and it won't be a positive response.