focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Yes NU. January is my recollection.
So
-reimbursement codes go live for PSE in the US.
-updates on CiRT and PSE sales in next week's webinar.
-confirmation of increased testing capacity in the UK and US.
-announcement of OBD's PSE test being included in the UK prostate screening trial.
-validation of another blood test.
All possible or already confirmed during 1st Q 2024.
My sense is it's just a matter of time with CiRT Nick. We already have reimbursement codes for the US insurers and I suspect the speed with which they were granted will, in part, reflect on the potential cost savings.
The last we heard we were at 90 sales a month and indications were that we could have been seeing the early stages of exponential growth. Taking a more modest view if we use a best fit linear extrapolation we should hopefully hear next week that we have already hit 200-250 sales per month.
I expect the coming year to be transformational. Once word gets out and case numbers grow from these early figures I'd expect the US insurers to start insisting their oncologists administer a CiRT test before they will pay for immunotherapy ( The BUPA model). Since we have brought in a Senior VP to oversee PSE commercialisation I'd like to think we will see benefit from that in the near future too. I also expect to hear that we will be a candidate in the forthcoming prostate screening trial in the UK. With an announcement sometime in Spring this year due. The numbers for PSE will be modest so soon after launch but it is primed and ready.
I'm looking forward to next week's zoom presentation. An exciting year ahead.
Hi NickE,
From what I have read the potential for CiRT is much much bigger than 400 per annum. Indeed I won't be hugely surprised if we are not already hitting several hundred per month. Here's why I think this:
The link I posted earlier about the market for immunotherapy estimates the market will have quadrupled in the 10 years ending in 2032. The market is huge. The link also lists cancers that immunotherapy is already used for. These include lung, colorectal, breast, prostate, melanoma, ovarian and pancreatic. The incidences of these cancers per annum in the USA alone can be googled and it is just over 1 million new cases per year in total. Of those 40% are likely to be considered for immunotherapy. This is confirmed in this medical paper;
Https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6503493/
So we are looking at 400,000 potential immunotherapy patients per annum that would benefit from a CiRT test to assess their likely response to a hugely expensive treatment option (typically more than $100,000 per patient). Insurers will follow the example of BUPA and CiRT will allow their oncologists to be selective as to which patients get immunotherapy. If we were to get just 1% of the available market we would be looking at 4000 CiRT tests per annum in due course. This is one reason why I think we could easily become a takeover target for big pharma.
@5085.
The science is very impressive, but the icing on the cake for shareholders is the market growth with CAGR of 15% foreseen.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cancer-immunotherapy-market-size-reach-122000362.html#:~:text=According%20to%20DataHorizzon%20Research%2C%20The,natural%20ability%20to%20fight%20cancer.
A transition from loss making to profitability during this calendar year is not an unrealistic goal. The potential here is massive and we may well become a takeover target for one of the bignpharma companies we are already partnered with.
@NickE
Hi Nick. I expect he will be involved with both PSE and CiRT but reports at the time say he was specifically brought in to oversee PSE commercialisation.
Https://thebusinessmagazine.co.uk/recruitment-careers-hr/oxford-biodynamics-strengthens-with-senior-appointment/
@NickE
The company made a very significant move to improve its sales/marketing capabilities when it recruited a highly respected and successful marketing director (Steve Aribo) shortly after the launch of the PSE test.
Happy New Year GMS.
I'm hopeful you will be pleasantly surprised with the sales data for CiRT and PSE.
CiRT was starting to grow at an exponential rate, albeit from a low base, when figures were last provided. I have looked at that data and extrapolated using a very conservative linear growth rate estimate of 20% per month. I would hope to be hitting 250 CiRT by end of the 2023 calender year. Remember too that the BUPA agreement came after the last sales data was made available. I expect BUPA to be encouraging their oncologists to make good use of CiRT as it will save them huge sums spent on ineffective immunotherapy treatments. I would expect maybe 5 to 10 CiRT tests per month for UK BUPA patients alone.
It may be too early to see big numbers of PSE sales as the Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement codes have only been live since Jan 1st. We do know that the urologist running the prostate health podcast has been using PSE for his patients and promoting it via his podcast. The new state legislation in NewYork requiring insurers to make biomarker tests available to their clients is a timely boost to the prospects of PSE flying out of the traps.
I'm more than hopeful we will see OBD become profit making this year and expect the SP to be well into 3 figures by this time next year.
Https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/7417006471039/WN_ZqpvQz8hQOKMufXOKPwH1A#/registration
Sorry link.for webinar registration above.
Just over 2 working weeks before we get updates on CiRT and PSE sales progress. With CiRT having hit close to £200k a month revenues 6 months ago I would expect the update to show revenues and profits taking OBD very close to eliminating operating losses and hopefully signalling a transition to profitability in 2024.
The news on state legislation in New York requiring insurers to ensure biomarker technology is available to all cancer patients is a timely boost coming as it does, with the episwitch PSE code going live from 1st Jan. A big year ahead so happy new year to shareholders and GLA for a transformational year ahead.
Always good to have a keen eye on OBD's academic publications. They do give emphasis to how episwitch converts to health service benefits in the form of idiagnostics, efficacy and targetting of treatments and cost savings for health services. Massive potential here.
I suppose anything is possible, but the company focus is very much on continued growth of CiRT sales and the launch of PSE. To that end they raised some funds last year to upgrade the labs. I would expect these activities to remain as the clear priorities as they should see OBD transform to profit making in the near future. It is good to have a well stocked product pipeline that promises future growth, but I am sure the management are concious of the risks of overstretching the resources to the detriment of ongoing commercialisation programmes. I think it would be hard to justify an imminent fund raise and as far as I'm aware talk of one is baseless and pure speculation.
As for forward selling, it was roundly beaten yesterday by forward buying in anticipation of positive newsflow through Q1 next year. With the host of the US prostate health podcast confirming he has bought PSE tests for his patients and with BUPA reimbursement of CiRT in the UK we should expect good news!
Down the line I'd consider participating in future raises should they be needed and if the opportunity arises. Personally I'd be surprised if the selling yesterday was anything other than profit taking on the rising share price and I hope we will see further rises today.
The penultimate trade a few minutes earlier was a buy of a few hundred shares at 29.5. Its hard to imagine. The only way I can see a big volume trading minutes later at 30p would be as a buy, unless the MM's are desperate to accumulate some for an even bigger buy order.
Regardless a good day today and I expect there's quite a few more like it to come in the near term future.
The PHI index combines three measurements of PSA in an attempt to improve the predictive benefit of PSA measurements.
Https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37204514/
The improvements appear to be small and incremental relative to a conventional PSA test. Of course we know there are numerous reasons why someones PSA increases so that it is perhaps not surprising that heard much about PHI even though it has been around for ten years or so.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4663012/
Been slowly building some upward momentum following a period of consolidation. This morning's RNS confirms we really only have 2 working weeks of trading before the annual results. That should signal another period of positive news that could see us reach a new ATH.
I expect the first couple of months to:
-update CiRT sales for the last 6 months (coincident with annual results)
-update PSE sales since the launch.
-forward projections to highlight potential for near term transformation to profitability.
-show rapid growth of PSE as medicare/Medicaid
reimbursement code goes live Jan 1st.
-announce completion of lab upgrades.
- show first significant benefits of recent recruitment (e.g. hospital group contracts for PSE inthe US).
-Validation of one or two new tests (e.g. colerectol blood test).
-Announce OBD's role in the Transform prostate screening trial (leading candidate to become first technology adopted).
and that's just for starters.