Member Info for ducatiman996r

The oil price kicking off today isn't going to help us.

News is out at 1.30pm GMT so hold onto your hats!

Interesting that the supply shortage is not helping to push the price up as Comex vaults supposedly empty by the day!

Is the supply/demand issue just a massive scam perhaps?

If the dollar does continue to strengthen are we looking at silver really tanking?

Dollar is artificially high based on better than anticipated employment and a bunch of other data that has seen it used as the safe haven rather than PMs.

Non farm payroll out today which if it is good will help the Dollar index higher and potentially push silver lower.

If you look at the daily chart it is still bullish and hypothetically we have reached the bottom of a "higher low" with upside $100. We need support at the current level today to carry this forward to next week.

If the Dollar strengthens that is going to be challenging!

Getting absolutely smashed down today.

The annoying thing is that pretty much across the board the miners are dropping to way below where they were when silver was last at this price.

No sign if silver or gold reversing the downward trend.

The last few days has shown a bearish tendency developing in the silver price, I guess it started when the high of $95 which was reached on small volume tipped over. Since then any gradual rise has been met with a solid bash down. We are seeing lower highs and lower lows so who knows how low we go this time before silver is considered as cheap enough to see some decent buying pressure.

Shanghai still over $10 premium to Comex, they must love being able to get their hands on all the cheap Comex silver!

Bancrupty.

I thought your posts were observations and read them as such. None of the miners are going anywhere until the paper price of silver stops being artificially held down.

Nothing currently makes much sense, Pan American just announced major new finds and the SP didn't flicker.

The real appreciation in the miners prices isn't going to happen until the paper price stops being manipulated. At present banks are buying and hoarding silver that isn't going to industrial purposes. How much of the accumulated shortage and drawdown on Comex due to industrial use and how much due to hoarding?

Forthemog

Apologies, I should have been clearer and explained that I meant recently. The last few days. Most news knocks the price for a while, I was just wondering whether people believed that Blackrock selling to below the 5% threshold might have been seen negatively.

However we want this to go the market plus the manipulators will determine the price of silver and the miners will reflect that, as we can clearly see.

The chart over the past couple of days has worryingly shown lower highs and lower lows which is bearish.

I still believe that the silver price will rise in the future but it might be a bit of a grind along the way. We had another dip overnight which was bought back within the hour but there is far less upward momentum than downward unfortunately.

I guess the squeeze we anticipated in March is looking like being carried forward, if Comex did run short I'm sure the banks would come to their rescue, they are after all pretty much one and the same thing.

The reaction to conflict shown by precious metals is a bit unusual bit the crazy strengthening of the $ is maybe the main cause of that.

The lack of upward momentum in the silver price is probably leading to some retail investors keeping away, those that have been thrown out due to the increased margins will in some cases be finished and others will think twice about getting back in unless something is done about the blatant suppression of the true value by the paper market.

It is all very well understanding that many miners are sensibly selling outside of Comex but the SP of their companies does follow the Comex price.

It will be down to how long we are prepared to wait for the price of silver to rise, whether we believe that Comex will ever be held accountable for their actions and how low we are prepared to see the price drop before giving up.

The likelihood of Comex being questioned is pretty low as they will say that they are just maintaining an orderly market. That suits those who control it as it allows them to run naked short positions with impunity, knowing they can move the price whenever they need to.

New to this forum so good afternoon folks.

Am I right in thinking that Blackrock sold off some shares recently?

I have a fair bundle of miners in the PF but was thinking about a short term position in HOC as a recovery punt.

Seems to be lagging the PM price recovery?

CaptainSwag

You have affirmed my comments, the market views alternative miners as likelier to provide them with more profit. It really is that simple when you boil it down.

We can wish/hope/believe that the SP should be whatever we like but at the end of the day the market will decide.

As for prices dipping on news, whether you or I like that or not is irrelevant to the fact that it happens. Perhaps as it is an established practice it is a bit of a foregone conclusion.

When Hycroft announced a massive increase in indicated resources followed by disclosing that the legendary Eric Sprott has 40% of the shares and was still buying at current market prices it did go the right way. Thankfully not before I'd had a tidy little top up.

Did you notice how Fres did actually get going a bit on Friday as the silver went up?

Stick with the programme, you will be rewarded for your patience. Always remember the "old bull, young bull story.

CaptainSwag.

Not quite sure what you mean? Some miners are considered potentially more profitable than others. If you take the case of Hycroft they aren't even in production but the estimated resources are causing the price to boom. Others that aren't seen as having so much potential are not recovering as well, news along the way has positive and negative effects, the old adage is "sell on news", I didn't make it up.

Bottom line people are buying what they think will return them the most profit.

Fresnillo seems to have missed targets, projects reduced ongoing output and as far as I can tell is not buying any of the smaller start up miners to expand future resources. That will weigh on the SP potential but as I mentioned, the fact that they are producing a commodity that people believe is going to increase significantly in price should logically cause the share price to rise.

Some days when things get really fruity, you can actually observe short term traders selling out of one share to buy into whatever is popular on the day. It is a bit of a swings and roundabouts game but my experience of it is that unless the fundamental reason why you bought something changes significantly more will be lost chopping in and out than buying and holding.

As I said previously, "old bull, young bull"

Not sure how else to put it really.

Seems to have been a bit of jolly banter on this topic. Bottom line the RNS didn't smash the price as many of us have witnessed in the past, even on good news.

Priced in or anticipated is quite the norm for anyone who actually researches the companies they invest in.

The saving grace of precious metal miners at the moment is the expectation that the commodity will be priced a fair bit higher than it is currently. As we can see from the relative recovery rates in SP of various miners since the big dip, some are viewed as better options for future growth.

I'm sure that with this invaluable information to hand people are selling out of (or not buying into) the slow recoverers but at some point when the latter have lagged far enough behind perhaps they will be seen as the bargains of the day?

The frustrating thing about these big drops is that they happen in a matter of hours and take ages to recover from. Being in for the long term is fine and silver will still be in short supply when things start to get back to normal.

Are we going to see the bottom of the January drop tested again today?

At some point someone will see the price as very cheap and will start buying back.

Portfolio power

Im fully invested in various silver miners and my fundamental belief that silver will rise in price remains. Rather than chop in and out of the market I just held on during the big January dip and the subsequent smaller ones.

My personal belief is that getting stopped out and trying to reenter a highly volatile market that is heavily manipulated is a great way to lose a lot of capital and confidence.

People do that all the time then give up on trading just as everything goes the right way.

Just my views based on quite a few years of doing this. Still a believer in the " old bull, young bull" outlook.

With the general sell off in stocks I'm struggling to find where the money is going. Normally precious metals, particularly gold are the safe haven but it ain't really happening yet.

I can't believe that big institutions are sitting on cash, they want their money working all the time.

It hasn't gone to crypto so where is it?

Anyone shed any light?

Maybe there is going to be a lag until people realise that the middle east situation is going to get worse and not be resolved in just days, as some expected.

Blue ocean

This is typical reaction to an RNS "sell on news" irrespective of how good it is.

You have to remember that there are people out there for whom this and many other miners represent serious multi baggers. Some will be taking profit especially as we are seeing such volatility in the silver price.

A couple of days into the period when contract holders have to declare whether they are standing for delivery seems a pretty crazy time to release release an RNS but hey ho, it is out of the way now.

Out of interest have you been trading these markets for very long?

Well that wasn't as bad as I was expecting at the open, quick bounce was encouraging, at least we have the darn RNS out of the way.

Hopefully the silver price will recover and help to pull Fres up a bit with it.

Looking at the silver chart, we are back at around the same price as yesterday's market close so hopefully the overnight dip won't be an influence.

Am I correct in reading that anticipated Fres output for next year is less than 2025? Perhaps they need to be looking at some new resources if they have cash? I'd personally rather see that than big dividends.