Member Info for Dubbs99

Fantastic news!

All hot air and posturing. That article is nearly a year old and nothing on the ground has changed. Irrespective of the POTUS and/or Erdogan the US military probably need the bases in Turkey...

The SP is still undervalued. Over time I 'm sure true value will be realised.

As I understand it the USA still have nuclear weapons kept in Turkey. Whatever all the rhetoric amounts to I don't think the President of the USA really will have any material impact on Ariana carrying on with its operations and successfully mining its already owned and licensed sites. Going forward the planned diversification into other countries/opportunities will help reduce any perceived risks. Another reason that the proposed JV and future plans are so exciting and valuable.

Indeed, to the point of this message board, what are long-term holders views on the potential here over the next 12 months?

Stephen Bingham regularly posts as BigglesBingham on ADVFN. He is a huge supporter/believer in AAU and it future (as am I). He has posted today on ADVFN to explain his holding change.

Yep, absolutely.

Paul, yes, shareholders haven't had the chance yet to vote on the proposed JV.

Useful RNS, better late than never!

What a poor week for Ariana. The fundamentals have not changed and the company remains under valued for the assets and potential it has irrespective of whether or not the proposed JV enables some of those assets to be 'cashed' sooner rather than later. But for Kerim to put out the RNSs and an interview this week that glossed over his very large share sales (taking new options is irrelevant) and not mention the JV at all knowing that the 'intended deadline', he gave a month ago, to arrange a general meeting for shareholders to agree the JV, is going to be missed beggars belief and of course creates a great opportunity for sentiment to turn negative and MMs to make hay! Kerim has performed wonders with Ariana but that's why I would have expected so much more from him in terms of communication, clarity and transparency this week of any week. I'm sure over the long-term and hopefully still in the short-term the true value of the company will be reflected in the share price but a lot of investors will have lost money this week for no good reason and probably totally unnecessarily and will have been put off from investing again in Ariana and certainly won't be buying the polo shirts!

Back to trying to have the patience of a saint!

There have been a few big buys yesterday and today, hopefully some people are aware of some imminent further good news and the next leg up might not be far away.

VanVan, Itotally agree and well said!

Thanks M20ASH, very reassuring.

Paul1Deano, I'm sure your right about market concerns over the geopolitics in Turkey but in 2019 the World Bank ranked Turkey 43 out of 190 countries in their 'Doing Business index' which isn't too bad !

I would hope and expect Ariana to convert Lira to US dollars as much as possible and hedge against the currency risk.

An 8% rise is not to be sniffed at but I still feel that the market doesn't understand the opportunity/Asset Salinbas is and why the progress on the deal hugely derisks the feasibility of exploiting that asset. 1.5M oz gold identified already, possibility of 4m oz of gold to be proven up and mined. At today's prices (that I think will likely rise over the coming months/years) that's between c. $3 billion and $8 billion of revenue. If the profit on that was just a half (before cost of building the mine) that's between $1.5 billion and $4 billion. Assume the mine cost $900 million ($20,000 per tonne) that leaves a minimum profit before interest and tax of £600 million and Ariana would own 23.5% of it plus its other assets and cash. Ozaltin has the capacity and ability to finance and build the mine with Proccea. The ducks are now lined up. Ariana's share price/mcap should be at least twice what it is currently in my opinion.

Fantastic!

Thanks

VanVan - yes of course

Thanks VanVan, our posts crossed. On that basis the deal is worth at least £200M to us, as you would hope for, for 53% of 1.5M oz of gold. Seems hard to believe that that is the case simply because our mcap remains so low - does Kerim need to spell it out in words of one syllable?

But with a non-dilutive deal and a 'free-carry' on future costs of development, so do Ozaltin build the mine, at no cost or future share dilution to Ariana, in return for 53% of future profits from mining at least 1.5M oz of gold? That mine cost would have been in the 100s of millions to Ariana of course. So in very simple terms: Ozaltin pay a lot of up front, $30M dollars now plus another $8M soon, plus, lets say £200M to build the mine and infrastructure and can then earn, say, a minimum of £500 net profit per oz in return - 1.5m oz x £500 x .53 = £397.5M. If Salinbas eventually ends up having 4M oz, they can multiply that profit by 2.7! Ariana would receive a minimum of 1.5M oz x £500 x 23.5% = £176.25M but with no development/build cost in the first place. If that is accurate our share price should be re-rating so I assume I'm wrong on something. Can anyone put me right?