NN is up about 10% on the week, rising today. If the market believed suddenly the Kremlin was about to self-destruct its economy and take control of key companies NN would nose dive.
Takes time to push out an RNS especially where EUA is concerned. So if I see more of Friday's behaviour and a bit more volume, you'll work it out.
Morning.
No RNS (again). What posters building expectations...on a weekend? Not even MMs know when that RNS is landing so have the sp locked using NT to buy small amounts. Slightest turn in sentiment or update and 15p is gone.
btw, looks like Mr Ps days and his ever shrinking circle of friends are shrinking. Credible reports he's not in good health and his top general sent east was injured near the front.
Soon find out but mores the point a) they are already in the open for EUAs partner and b) there's been a truck load of progress that's not been RNSd. This month EUA sold imv and just one bit of news on ceasefire or treaty and its 15p.
RNS in the morning with WK results and the rest will certainly surprise the market. It's not all about NN. Others perhaps introduced more recently might want a simple t/o and that'll de-risk the deal. VD fast approaching and Mr P needs to think about bond payments at end of May - somehow needs to get the special licence extended and access his overseas reserves although somehow found enough USD domestically to pay $650m on Friday. The $300bn of reserves frozen is 3.5x Russia's annual military spend. No small sum. All the efforts to maintain BAU and special operation isn't going to last so he'll be forced to trumpet whatever gains he can. The first step will be ceasefire. The UN and joint evac from Azovstal started in time for Mr P to say the south has been de-nazified. Also ensures Mr Z has a public win for peace talks.
Good WK chat. WK appears to have hit profitability last year pre major equipment scale up on it's way to 68koz pa. Good thing with a long weekend is EUA keep working and short positions can't increase ;), very crowded at current sp. They'll be eyeing expectations of an end to the war too especially with UN evac and VD on the 9th. As soon as best offer lands EUA wants to accept, it's RNSd for a vote - forget AGM. Personally, this gets done next week as each party likely knows who they're up against and some move very quickly. RNSs have been hard to issue given abundance of caution so super frustrating for LTHs - not EUAs fault. Planned RNSs sometimes get leaked but don't make it past AIM reg, which only wants tangible final outcomes now. I'm hoping WK results give EUA a reason to get one through on Tuesday or Wednesday. There's nothing being waited on. Deal RNS could land next week. As I've observed recently, buying starts when the draft RNS is in the pipe.
Now seriously looking forward to Tuesday.
And yes, crazy man's conventional military machines haven't fared as good as he expected. Start of UN/Red Cross with Russ/Ukr officials evac'ing from Azovstal looks the start of his off-ramp ahead of VD. Crazy man also wants his $600bn back. Interesting Russia paid its c.$800m of sovereign bond payments via London on Friday after being given special clearance, so clearly cares about not defaulting on international markets. Today's interview extract I link below for a view from the very top.
Actually you're not, because I've read it to. "Should hit the US like a boomerang" I believe were his exact words. I think the likes of ExxonMobil and other US business trying to exit Russia might have something to say to Biden. Anyway, wrong country.
I think you're not reading correctly on purpose. US is rattling that oligarch assets should be sold to help Ukrainians. So comments from this guy in the Duma was that Kremlin should consider retaliation if that happens. Note the country.
On ammonia, the world's largest green hydrogen project is Neom in Saudi. In fact the end product is ammonia as a readily transportable "fuel" destined for US truck fleets.
Novice, if there's an RNS in the pipe, it'll explain Friday pm reversal but might take a day to get through advisers if it's to contain sale status. Either way, could be a good day.
EUA commodities will back ruble. Project for stronger domestic economy as well as participation in international trade. Kremlin continually pointing out the West has undermined itself with asset seizures and sanctions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-gold-standard-kremlin-confirms-intention-back-ruble-gold-and-commodities
Key quote
“They do not contradict the conclusions of economics, but rather the conclusions of Western economics textbooks.
The West has unilaterally appropriated an intellectual monopoly on the optimal structure of society and has been using it for decades…
We are not opposed to a market economy and participation in global production chains, but we are clearly aware that the West allows other countries to be its partner only when it is profitable for it.
Therefore, the most important condition for ensuring Russia's economic security is to rely on the country's internal potential, a structural adjustment of the national economy on a modern technological basis.”
While logical to consider NN as lead buyer given adjacent plant and plans to build a new facility in the heart of EUA deposits, don't rule out others that more recently might've entered the mix and who conduct dd / make offers in weeks.
Sviblov did his dd on Kupol/ Udinsk in 1.5 weeks. OK week 3, he entered exclusivity and week 4, done.
The RUB is now stronger against USD than pre-war, which is something I believe Putin is going to trumpet on VD along with defeat of Azov, destruction of Ukr military infrastructure etc.
Notable reversal in sp on Friday with a reduction in bb toxins. That hidden £88k cancelled sell trade used to hold the sp, which Tilly identified as a short closing was interesting. If this continues on Tuesday, assuming no RNS, market will work out what's going on.
Resolution involving UN at Azovstal I should have stated. Given we are in the absolute deepest "fog of war" regarding sentiment, my view is it won't take much of a glimmer to have an outsized affect. That said, I do believe everyone wants an off ramp and Russia won't want to play to US strategy. Let's see.
Tilly, crazy man might well can his offensive next week ahead of victory day. I'm hopeful this and a resolution involving the UN allows him a win optic and a route to de-escalation. For this to be a special operation and not to enter a permanent war with the US, he strategically needs an end.