RE: RNS - Broker Research Note15 Jun 2020 11:15
Interesting valuation on HH...
Horse Hill – This is valued just on its production potential under current Surrey
County Council permissions (up to 3,500 bopd for 25 years). If an exploration value
is added, the eventual sum could be considerably more, as previous independent
technical reports have alluded. But as the management have flagged their willingness
to dispose of the stake if a reasonable offer is received, we thought it prudent just to
ascribe a production value, as Alba may not own the asset long enough to benefit
from its eventual exploration and production upside.
Our estimates assume oil will slowly rebound to $60 per barrel by 2023, with costs
per barrel rising 12% p.a. from the current $13 for the next 5 years, and production
ramping up to 3,500 bopd by the fourth year of operation. A post-tax project NPV of
$236.7m is computed using a 10% discount rate. Assuming a project to equity value
of 50%, the value of Alba’s 11.765% stake comes to an estimated $13.9m (£11.1m).
At £11.1m, this values each 1% of Alba’s interest at £947K. This is a premium to the
£342K per 1% achieved by Magellan Petroleum (UK), when it sold its 35% interest
to UK Oil & Gas plc for £12m in cash and shares in September 2019. We believe
Magellan may have sold its interest too cheaply.