RE: HH7 Mar 2020 09:28
Interesting post on UKOG board by toughiv;
The "routine" fix of the toe end interpreted fracture seems complete. We were flowing approx 600 bopd with 400 bopd of water and kill fluid, at Xmas.
After (likely cementing) the last however many feet, I'd be happy with 2 tankers a day with minimal water cut. Min region of say 400bopd with 50/100 barrels of water.
I'm optimistic to have that target beaten.
The nitrogen is used to lift. We know it flows. I find it highly unlikely that a toe end cement job stops and entire horizontal from flowing. So suspect this is part of normal operations.
Next week we'll get an RNS saying along the lines of "fix successful. Flow has been reestablished with X inital rates and minimal water. Now we will begin EWT".
This is all in my opinion.
If that happens will the market go nuts? We have a proven 10m barrels recoverable oil pool out of 40 mboo, which I've heard said is about npv10 of 250m value. We have planning for 4 more of these horizontals and 1 injector. So that would mean, including HH1 2000+ bopd.
The fag packet maths is for every 100bopd = 15 million mcap. 20 x 15 = 300m mcap. Couple that with the NPV value... Seems about right?
I hope his calcs, predictions and expectations are somewhat correct..
Roll on next week