Interesting analysis10 Mar 2020 06:38
courtesy of Pro_S2009 on advfn:
Russians are also not stupid......this whole thing is a merry go around.
Russia is not happy at the latest sanctions imposed by EU and USA.
Saudi hate Iran.
US hates Iran.
Russian wants a scaling back of Crimea sanctions.
Saudi is at war in Yemen (Iran (and to a degree Russia) in the background)
Russia / US are at war for power in Syria, with Turkey sticking their nose in.
Turkey are threatening the EU with refugees in order to gain more power in Syria
Libya is a **** hole mess.
Influence in Iraq is now up for grabs.
Trump wants low oil prices, but above US shale breakeven.
Putin wants oil prices just below US shale breakeven.
Saudi have just put the oil price below Russian target of 45$ and are grabbing market share from Russia.
This low oil price also hurts Iran - putting up the stakes in Yemen where they could ask Iran to back off.
Low oil price also screws Iraq whose budget has now gone out the window at this price. More riots to come...........another change of government cannot be too long away is the oil price stays low.
At this moment in time......Trump, Putin, Saudi are all not happy in some way. Sometimes this has to come to pass that nobody is happy before finally they agree to all be a little bit happier.
The game of diplomacy is now going on in the backrooms around the world - we want this and if you give us that then you can have this, but we want that and that and if you give us that you can have this..........
3 weeks to go before the old OPEC+ deal ends - and in due course - 3 weeks of give and take in diplomacy before a deal is reached where everyone says its best and win-win and nobody loses.
One thing is for sure........the general public will never know what sordid back room deals will be done in the coming three weeks. They will keep you worried about CV-19 so focus on that and toilet paper and forget whats really going on.
Every 1$ in the oil price is 7.5M US$ in revenue for Russia.
So the oil price moving from 50US$ to 37US$ has now cost Russia 97.5M US$ yesterday, on an annualized basis that is over 35 Billion dollars a year lost revenue.
Do you think Putin wants to throw away 35 billion just to save face ? Thats a big chunk of his infrastructure program thrown away...........
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