HEX short term valuation2 Oct 2025 15:23
There have been several posts recently about global helium shortages / production constraints etc. So my bet is Bo will be able to negotiate a price well in excess of the $500/mcf used for modelling to date. I'm using $700 but that too could be very conservative given so many other positive factors in HEX's favour e.g. quality of management (including standing and contacts in the industry), security of supply, long term potential etc etc.. Gives a pre-tax annual cash flow per well of $5.6m = £4.144m. Using a very conservative p/e of 5 and just for the first 4 wells (which I'm confident will be at target production rates by year-end if not before) and 186m shares, gives sp around 45p. If we're at that level by Xmas I'll be happy = 66% up from now. BUT at that point production will be generating about $1.4m free cash flow per month, to be invested straight back into developing next wells. So I can see ramp-up of wells being very quick through 2026, which I believe is Bo's aim and expectation too. In my conservative model each new well could add 11p to the sp. I'm a long term investor in HEX and am very excited at the prospect of this unfolding something along these lines over the next 12-18 months. GLA