Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
But I bought back in here today!
I previously bought in sub 7p, to go on to sell at 12-14p range(still find it hard to forgive myself)!
Gla.
Nibj- don’t worry I’m sure you’ve got more than me..5.3m(ish)
I added 186272 today.
Ed- jealousy is not an adhering trait(you could check back to see in the spring/summer 2022 I was adding millions, whilst you were to afraid too!
Gla.
Of an update before years end.
Gla.
I bought in here only for Anza, it alone with me worth money most on here can’t fathom.
Good to hear there’s activity there.
And before any of the “negative merchants” come spinning their spin…I don’t care I can wait(the gold bull has only just begun)!
Gla Holders.
Jiv-Well the loan to Glen is due in 13 days!
Or maybe Marty’s signing on fee!!
Surprised we didn’t get a RNS today covering the outstanding loan/new costings..maybe after close, or tomorrow morning pre-AGM?
Looks like shard having begun placing this morning.
Gla.
Ex- your (b) is basically what I see happening, without the (a) part happening.
It is unlikely a strategic investor will pay £5 p/s when we are currently priced at 8p!..I appreciate they couldn’t get a sizeable holding by attempting to buy in the open market, without the sp potentially going to £5, but still the gap between 8p, and. £5 is to great for new shares to be placed at anything like £5.
So before (b) I envision-
Glen underwriting X(upto 400m)(in line with proposal GM agenda 8/9/10) new shares @ £ X = raising £ X (Glens holding goes to 60%+)
Then we go to a strategic partner (financial/investment bank)
The bank(Chinese/PIF/Manara Minerals/whoever) want a slice(as per your suggestion)(15%-20%)(probably on similar terms Glen just increased their holding at).
So make loan with interest payments paid in equity =fully funded for stage1.
Result= Glen+Bank+Elphick+friends=90%+=forced buyout of PI’s(through Glen shares/cash/mouth being stuffed with gold!)
*(assuming stage 1 costs @$1.8bn after new costings(20% savings).
* it is in Glens interest to place at higher price(close to EPC)as to keep control of the project/not be diluted by a investor(they also know better than anyone true value/potential)(there’s a reason they have held on so tightly all these years!).
*banks like you to have skin the game(deposit)
*banks like skin in the game(interest paid in equity)
* all this could happen quickly, or conclude 2025
Maybe the Glen increasing holding+ strategic partner happens at the same time.
As previously stated this is a very complex scenario, with lots of variables, but I think me, you , and jiving are not a million miles apart?
This time is for REAL.
I think the outcome results in us all having a good few drinks together in the not to distant future in Abergele, or any venue that suits!!
Gla
Nibj- I think nobody wanted to pay “fair price” this last 13years for a greenfield project(to much risk-2-premium), So we’re going brownfield(small scale), this will help us achieve a “fairer price”. There will be dilution to achieve this, and so long as it adds value, I personally don’t have any issues. I think we will then be brought out as a small scale producer(could be the whole project, or just our stake).
Why now- because the iron ore market pressures/price/co2/high grade= GAME ON.
Also, the restructuring of the company last year makes this cleaner for Glencore to increase their holding without being in direst control(although they still have control behind the curtain).
This is a very complex conversation to have, and there are so many variables.
In summary-
1-we will see dilution next year to fund initial development/Glencore will part-fund and increase their stake in doing so.
2-A “money”partner will be brought in.
3- We will get bought out 2025 onwards by a major/maybe Glencore, maybe a major buys Glencore out?( I don’t care, as long as I get £2+)
I’m expecting £500m-1bn market cap 2024, £3bn+ 2025 onwards, equating to share price is dependent on dilution, but expecting £1 p/s 2024/£3+ 2025 onwards.
Of course there’s still a possibility all this noise is merely a rue to force a buyout at a “fair” price.
It will all become clearer as soon as next week(with any luck)!
AIMO.
Gla.
A lot of thought provoking funding scenarios being suggested.
Could I suggest perhaps a slightly different scenario where Glencore fund “our” portion through underwriting issuance of new shares,(increasing their holding(and enabling them to appoint a further rep to the board(the new CEO). The rest of the funding(majority) coming through a loan, to get us into initial “ small scale” production.
Glencore might be our “preferred strategic partner”?
Obviously “the bank” we loan the monies from will by virtue become a vested interest/strategic partner(Chinese/pif?), with options on interest being paid through equity.
Occam's razor anyone?
Gla.
Let’s be honest, “they” almost lost control of the share price prior to the announcement of the shard (1st tranche) placement, and I believe the share price would have began that same out of control” trajectory today, with this Amazing announcement(don’t underestimate the significance of today’s RNS), if not for announcing along side the placement of the 2nd tranche.
I suppose it all won’t make much of a difference in the long run…we’re now most certainly on the way to being developed l, and a market cap a hell of a lot higher than todays.
AIMO.
Gla
Https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-up-as-hopes-of-china-stimulus-resurface/
Mm- thanks for this,
Guess it will all be in any “Deal” that’s struck.
I’ve always put the poor SP down to the fact that any proposed buyer would be put off by not having the say on where the end product would be shipped.
That and the “inconvenience” of having to deal with Glencore, on Glencores terms…
Your input may make me reconsider this…although there has to be a reasonable explanation for why the SP is still in the flipping single digits?..any reasoning et all?
MM- you’d be better off “paging” Glencore PLC, last I checked they have “exclusive offtake” of any ore that gets processed out of ZANAGA..
It will be their call on where the ore gets shipped.
Gla.