Although I’m sure Mr E doesn’t need me to defend his actions…
Realistically what the hell more can he actually do?
Think of it as “build it, and they shall come”, well the 2014 FS was well out of date(and nobody came anyway), so he’s trying “rebuild it, and they shall come” in a very pro “green steel” moment.
There was never a chance of us being able to develop the mine ourselves, so we have only ever had 2 options-
1) buyout
2) buyin
Neither option is directly in his hands to achieve.
He can only market us to the best of his abilities, which I believe he has done, by the restructuring & the re-costings exercise.
This whole process was never done with the consideration of the share price(and by extension us PI’s)(and of course the company doesn’t directly benefit from PI’s trading shares on the open market)(unless the company’s aim is to raise money through equity(impossible for a company with £50m MC to raise the billion odd needed anyway), it was aimed directly at investors/partnersf to do one of the two options listed above.
My belief is the company went through this whole process at the behest of a new investor/partner(s)
Guess we will shorty find out..
Gla.
In all honesty today’s updated costings doesn’t materially change anything from a share price perspective.
They were largely front run, and expected.
I can only hope(assume) they were a component that was wanted/required by potential suitors.
The question we need to know the answer too/asking is “ what is also needed prior to a deal being done?
Will the FEED need to be carried out by us(and thus paid for through issuing equity/loan), or can a partner/investor be brought in at this stage?
Will it end with us carrying out the FEED work, or will we need to proceed to development before it is de-risked enough for any potential suitor?
We hopefully will be getting answers to these questions soon(now the re-costings have been completed).
It is in my opinion that answers to these questions is what the market want, and will continue to call our bluff until they are received.
Gla.
So how do we go from 8p to £xx?
We definitely won’t be able to fund development from a £50m market cap.
We surely have to sell, only problem with that is Glencore, and that they hold 100% of the offtake rights.
Complicated situation we find ourselves in.
Either Glencore take the project on themselves, or give up the offtake.
Short term we need to find £22m to fund the next stage(FEED), even that would be hard to do in these markets, again considering our current market cap(the market is pretty brutal right now)!
Perhaps Glencore loan the £22m, as it further increases the project value, and further entices potential buyers.
Seems all roads again lead to Glencore!…Please release us from your shackles.
Marty Knauth, CEO commented:
"A large volume of work has been completed during the recent six months by ZIOC, MPD Congo and our consulting Partners, which I am very satisfied with. This detailed re-costing study further demonstrates that the Zanaga Project provides extremely robust returns for investors and significant infrastructure assets and positive legacies for the Government and people of the RoC. During recent engagements with RoC Ministries, communities and potential strategic investors, the burden of being the first mover in the region of high grade, low impurity iron concentrates for green steel production, is strongly supported and makes for an exciting future for Zanaga.
Stage1-Net updated value-
$3,681bn= $ 5.70 per share.
Stage2-Net updated value- $7,357bn= $11.40 per share.
The figures are much more detailed in the report, and are absolutely staggering..
Clifford Elphick, Chairman of ZIOC commented:
"I am delighted with the results of our 2024 Feasibility Study update, demonstrating the attractive economics of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project in today's market environment. It is exciting to have secured updated pricing for the development costs of the project from experienced Chinese partners with extensive experience in iron ore process plant and slurry pipeline design and engineering.
We look forward to presenting these results to the various strategic partners we have been engaging with and advancing our discussions further with them as we look to progress towards front end engineering and design of the project"
Please can we resume trading!!
Just get a deal signed, for heavens sake!!
Jiv- I am a current shareholder, my interests(should) trump future “potential” shareholders.
I agree with you that the delay until the last day in April(unless we get a RNS today), maybe due to “other” behind the scenes activities, but I still, as a loyal shareholder “EXPECT” to be updated before end of play tomorrow.
Even if that is to be an update, that they cannot provide the updated costings.
I also note that since the restructuring of the company in late 2022, the board has been adhering to informing shareholders of developments quite stringently.
Gla.
I’m thinking the decision to leave the release of the updated costings until the “last minute”, can only mean we’re gonna get so much more in the update Monday/Tuesday next week..Incoming “unlocking of major value for shareholders." Anyone?
Exciting times!!
Gla.
Friday to allow 2x 240k trades, today 2 x 130k trades(so far), once the accumulation is complete, we should be off to the races..that or they are ISA transfers!!
Either way, I’m certain I’ve backed a winner, just need the smoke from the gun to start the race…
Gla
All sentiment aside,
It would be a hell of a thing to pull off a fully backed RI without a discount in these current markets!!
Now I know Zioc is “not the same as all the other shares on AIM, but just saying.
Anyway I hope I’m 100% wrong and we get financed at close to NPV.
I will leave it there, and wish all of us Good luck.
I agree!!
My 10:1 dilution was a “worst case scenario”, hopefully the board will be able to utilise debt finance, at least in part. Nibj as you seem to agree..a way forward, is a way forward..and yes I would expect my potential shrunken holding, still to be worth a shi*ton!!
MM- our benevolent board were still able to increase there holdings by having taken a haircut+shares in lieu(and as you have previously pointed out, were unable to buy in the open market), so would stand to benefit in a prevailing RI, if the share price was to rocket post being fully funded (and of course the were to take up their allocation).
I also am still hopeful(hope can be very dangerous in the markets), that we can be(us PI’s) bought out for a hefty sum), but like also planning on a lesser “great deal”.
After 10+ years I will accept a tenth of ziocs true value(£3-5b), as long as I get paid before “death does me part”.
Gla.
Feel I need to add-
That a RI isn’t necessarily a bad thing, post the raise of let’s say £500m 10:1)(for arguments sake), I could see our market cap cantering on to the £billions.
I just imagine my 1% of the company being diluted to say 0.1%(unless I stump up my share of the funds needed to develop the mine). I still think 0.1% of the company will be worth several million post being fully funded.
Dilution is not necessary a bad thing as long as it adds value.
Gla.
Market says otherwise, but for obvious reasons I would love you to be right!
Seems a RI to fund development where all existing shareholders will be given an option to partake on equal terms(very fair/and rare), fully underwritten by the incoming strategic partners(s).
Glencore/ephlick,ect holding kept intact, PI’s who can’t raise funds will be diluted, only hope/consolation is that the RI is above existing share prices, and we who are unable to take up our Rights will be able to sell them at premium.
Only my observation.
Gla.+ I hope MM is right, and I am wrong.
Observation:
Looks like the market are trying to search out sellers, without attracting attention.
We’re creeping up nicely, once volume arrives we should move swiftly, especially as there is no new liquidity being added by shard.
“Gotta keep us off the risers list”!
Gla.
Ex-excellent post.
May I add one observation..
And that the yanks policy, in turn forces “camp china” to “speed up the (Zanaga) process?
Competing bidders..how exciting!!
Gla.
Ukraine estimates min $500-800bn needed for rebuild, and it's safe to say that will double. Rough estimate of steel needed to support the effort is 3.5 million metric ton. This is expected to drive steel and all supporting commodity costs significantly.
I guess plenty of steel producers will be looking for iron “shovel ready” projects to ramp up production.
Gla.
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