Member Info for DRichi

Mid Cap company = FTSE 250 maybe? At the moment the FTSE 250 company with the smallest Mkt Cap that I can see is ELTA, Electra Private Equity with a Market Cap of $632M. So PPC have a bit of a way to go yet. Ramp up Production, and another acquisition or two, and PPC might get there....

PL is giving a speech as part of an Oil & Gas investment forum by Fenchurch Street. https://www.weare121.com/121oilgasinvestment-london/ Is anyone planning on going to this? If so, would be really good to know what's said.

This is gonna be big. How big? Bigger than the Beatles. Bigger than guns. Bigger than cigarettes. Bigger than breast implants. Bigger than a very big balloon that's going up. In fact, it's going to be so big, it's going to be even bigger than jungle....... and jungle is massive! Hahaha! Sorry chaps. Not meaning to be all rampy, but I just love that joke! (Laughing at my desk now).

CJ- One of the reasons I 1st invested in PPC was that there were not many shares in free float so I thought it could rise significantly on small volumes. However, since then PPC have issued another 850 million shares, so pretty sure there's lots of liquidity in the market these days....

Parky- Noted and agreed. It's not a fair to do a straight calculation, as back then prospective oil was factored in more than it is now. So SP future predictions are mostly guesswork. Having said that...... Group Production was 500 BOPD at the end of 2016, and the target from Argentina & Louisiana is 4,500 BOPD. If/when that is achieved, then Production would have increased 9x. That's a very good years work in my book.

This share has a long way to go yet. As AParky pointed put, it had a mkt cap of $150m back in 2014 based on 500 BOPD, and we know that PPC will soon be producing 4500 BOPD, and the Market Cap now is $95M. Obvs there's a lot more to the SP calc that just this, but if 500BOPD = $150M MktCap then 4500 BOPD should = $1350M MrkCap. If $95M MrkCap= 11p per share then a Mkt Cap of $1350M should = �1.56 a share. Plus oil is priced in dollars, and the SP is in GBP, and Cable has moved significantly against Sterling since Brexit, so there should be an FX bump to factor in as well. I would say we are sitting on a Gold mine here, but that's probably a different kinda company. Anyway, the SP is definitely going up a lot more, how much, I have no idea, but �1.56 would be a nice start.... ;-)

Before Christmas let's have; confirmation of 1200 from PG, workover success in Puesto Flores and news of another acquisition. Get those 3 things, and the SP will be way North of 16p. But like the Doctor said to the peeps sat in the waiting room, patience, patience.....

In the next 12 months, Production should double from here based on Argentina workovers alone. That will have a big impact on the SP. Plus there's a well spudding in Paraguay by March 2018. Plus potential acquisitions, and potential farm-outs for further drilling. All of these are good opportunities for the company to make good progress and significantly increase the SP. FinnCap reiterated it's 21p price target yesterday. Personally, I think PL is aiming (and expecting) for this to go a lot bigger than that. He mentioned Dividends, I think a SP needs to be in � not pence for it to start paying Dividends. I do appreciate going XD is more Blue Sky thinking that a definite goal. But you never know, stranger things have happened. GLA

"Q4 2017 work will continue from November through to the end of the year and will consist of three firm well workovers with another two wells contingent. This capital expenditure will be funded out of cash flow and the wells, being served by electrical submersible pumps from the main power grid, will be capable of being placed on production at the end of the year should work be successful. The programme is a first step to what will be an increasingly intensive programme running through 2018 which is slated to include multi-workovers, re-completions and drilling." So..... �1.5Mpcm revenue now. If the workovers are successful then the pumps are already hooked up so that oil can be extracted and exported immediately (unlike at PG). And 2018 will be more intensive with multi-workovers, re-completions and drilling. Plus there's the other bit of EV to look at. Plus PG should get 1200 BOPD online at some point. All should see teh SP increase significantly. Plus Paraguay. That has the potential to be huge. Fingers crossed....

AParky- Good shout, thanks, 15th it was. (I got date of the RNS confused with date of the takeover). Very good start to Puesto Flores. Very happy to see the SP in double-digits. Feel like this company really has turned a corner now, and expecting (hoping) for a successful next 12 months.

I believe Brasso only sold 100k, and still holds 600k which is not an insignificant amount so (presumably) will be very pleased with the rise. Anyway- good RNS today. US$1.5 million banked from the first shipment of oil from Puesto Flores Field. Now, looking at Turnover clacs again. PPC only bough Puesto Flores on 21st September, and have received 1.5M for oil already delivered. That's just over 3 weeks ago, but even if round up and say it's a months worth, that still equals $18M per annum from the Puesto Flores field only. That's fantastic news.

You'll be back in profit before long..... ( I hope).... I've gone Amy Winehouse today and gone Back to Black, (which is nice), but not selling any for probably another 12 months. SP will keep rising.....

Good to see. Maybe 10p at COB today. Volumes increasing, sentiment is positive, SP rising. All's good in PPC world!

Except, to the point I was making earlier about Just Eat, TalkTalk and Carillion's valuations, it isn't that straight fwd. E.g. Back 3 years ago, PPC's Market Cap was $126M. That Valuation was based on aprox 500 BOPD from Arg & US + potential in Paraguay. There's no rule for how much of the NAV is based on Producing Assets and how much is based on future potential, although PL did say in his interview last week that the weightings have been shifting in recent years giving more importance to Production rather than Potential. However the calcs are done, more production can only be a good thing, and I think the SP will increase significantly from here in the next 12 months

we are realistically speculating then that PPC will be producing circa 8000 BOPD by end of 2018. Perspective here from the 2016 YE Results, "Group production increased 3% to 506 boepd (2015: 490 boepd)" 2015 490 BOPD 2016 506 BOPD 2017 ? 2018 8000 BOPD Wouldn't that be nice?!?

Roughly how about this: Price obtained by PPC for a barrel of oil is, EV- $55, PG- $45 and US- $50. So let's say PPC get $50 per barrel on avg. House broker forecasts YE 2018 $69.5m with EBITDA $25.9. $50M is roughly double this which would make turnover $139m $139M receivables at $50 per barrel = 2,780,000 barrels of oil = 7,616 BOPD (based on pumps working 365 days a year). If everything goes to plan with Argentina workovers PG = 1200, EV = 3000. + US 300 = total 4,500 BOPD. Means PPC will still need to find another 3,000 BOPD from somewhere to make EBITDA of $50M. Does this mean that there are big plans underway that the market doesn't know about yet, or does this mean $50M is over-optimistic blue sky thinking (or 3rd option it could mean my calcs are very wrong). Let's see.....

Northern- "....EBITDA of $50m. Does anyone have any idea how this translates to an equivalent market cap using some sort of rule of thumb." - The short answer here is "no". Taken from chats on the FT. Barclays on TalkTalk NAV is 7 x EBITA. PT to 215p; implies no upside. Our earnings forecasts are broadly unchanged. We estimate TalkTalk trades on 14x Mar 19E P/E, 7x EV/EBITDA and offers an 8.9%/5.1% equity FCF/DPS yield vs challenger peers on 18x, 8x. 5.8% and 4.6% respectively. Here�s JPM on Carillon. Carillion is targeting 1.0 � 1.5x ND/EBITDA by the end of 2018. Investec on JustEat Attractive valuation: Just Eat offers sector-leading earnings growth within mid/large cap UK internet stocks. The shares trade on c.21x CY18E EV/EBITDA and c.33x P/E on our current forecasts (i.e. pre-consolidation of Hungryhouse). Three different companies there being valued (albeit by different Asset Managers) at 1.5x, 7x, and 33x their EBITA respectively. (Personally on those: 33x for JustEat is overvalued for owning market share of a market where any start-up could take a slice easily enough- so not buying there, Carillon is 1-1.5x but that stock is tanking so wouldn't touch that either, and have no interest in finding any more out about TalkTalk). NAV is a multiple of EBITA then, but varies hugely, and more importantly the NAV is dependent on the markets perception of the company's ability to deliver future results. That's why I think delivering 1200 BOPD from PG is a big deal, and the impact should be greater than just the revenues generated by the extra BOPD.

in Paraguay the aim is to have the first well spudded (target date March 2018). The rainy season there lasts from late December to February so expect PPC to be ready to go when the rain stops. The concessions in Paraguay are over 16,000 sq km which is �equivalent to 60 North Sea blocks�. 3 Billion BOE proven there. Currently Paraguay imports all it's oil as no oil is produced. The amount of reserves there are enough to power Paraguay, and have enough oil left over to export. Argentina is good. Production is ramping up, and the +ve cash flow now being generated gives PPC a platform from which it can go on and achieve much bigger things, and Paraguay could be a huge deal. There's oil in them hills, and I can hear Dividends a' comin'.....

Ps. I would bet on the women's team winning it before the men's team do (regardless of how much the new look Henderson & Winks midfield axis reminded me of Deschamps & Zidane in their prime). ;-)

There's always time for another beer! Haha! Whilst I am fairly confident that PPC will get compensation from the failed drilling operator, I don't think the timescales are that important. I would like to know more about the timescales in Puesto Guardian. If PL thinks the suppliers of the new pumps are good, then presumably this means the new pumps will be hooked up soon yes? Then PPC can realise their stated aim of getting 1200 BOPD from PG. I think this will be a significant achievement. If PPC can deliver here, then confidence in the potential success of further workovers in Argentina, and prospects in Paraguay will increase. And that's important.