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Monday I think - Future is Bright

4.858 TCF GIIP - for Ruvuma - Ntorya 1.9TCF GIIP - 368 BCF 1C - 763 BCF 2C & 1162 BCF 3C

io commercialisation study est. $143m spend to recover 3/4 tcf based on current gas price, $3.27/mcf is worth $25m to $35m cashflow per annum to Aminex from 2020 to 2049” "Fully covered"

FARM OUT - APT committed to spending up to $110milion on the full field development of the Ruvuma project which includes a committed spending of $40million to Aminex. $5m cash & balance $35million paid as full carry up to 40MMscf/d at which point any unspent remainder will be paid in cash from gas profits.

APT to acquire 50% of the Ruvuma project with Aminex retaining 25%. Solo Oil hold remaining 25%

“APT will establish an early production system to achieve an accelerated first gas to a MINIMUM gross rate of 40MMscf/d by Qtr1 2020” representing full carry to minimum $10 to $12m p.a. cashflow “Not revenue – Free Cash”

"Much more expected! Not worth building a 30Km pipeline for just 40MMscf/d"

Adding the Solo share of costs $35m gives $140m total potential spend & brings full carry to profitability as per “io” projections

"Any further spending will be self-generated"

**“Chikumbi-1 well pad is complete - planning to drill this year” RIG TENDERING COMPLETE

“Multiple Targets - Gas - Oil at the lower level - Oil shows found down dip at previous drill”

“Planned around same time” APT will acquire 3D seismic data over 200km2 to optimise drilling targets

Based on results of CH1 and 3D seismic APT will build a 33km pipeline to Mdimba gas plant to allow for maximum gas delivery “planned for 2019”

“Q1 2020 Monetisation to coincide with demand call”

“Plan” Drill CH1 alongside 3D & back with further 3 to 4 drills (possibly 2019)

Full field development is projected to 140mmcfd by mid 2020’s

**KILIWANI REMEDIATION WORK UNDERWAY - FURTHER PERFORATION OF LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED COMPLETE BY CHRISTMAS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQhhGwR4TZo

**Aim to bring drill ready target at Kiliwani South via 3D Seismic 2019 combining Nyuni licences to save costs & provide better Data Quality & Use.

Competitors running maximum capacity & demand forecast to outstrip supply 2019

**TPDC AGREEMENT SIGNED FOR PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION TO UGANDA (Aminex in pole position to supply)

**Pensions funds invest 20% more in Tanzanian business one year sparking further demand

**SADC nations agreed to develop plan to allow gas imports from Tanzania, Mozambique & Namibia

Malcy Comments “Bucket list status assured” "It's in the bucket, it's for a good reason. The value of this asset is high!"

Everything in this list has been produced in good faith & to the best of my knowledge is factually correct & has been published or stated verbally by management with regards to time schedules etc. DYOR https://aminexunofficial.blogspot.com/

So we are getting personal now Hex - Join the club!

I think you will find that what I am pointing to is factual information and not opinion.

I have admitted earlier in the conversation that there are risks the same as crossing the road! Is that not showing balance? I have never ever said there are no risks!

a) as said I can't read the article but nationalisation is possible throughout the world! Have you been on the Virgin bb today warning them to sell up?

b) I'm not ignoring it at all and it is as said something being regurgitated from 2017. Its been done to death so what new do you have?

C) For the third time, you dont answer my question and provide no evidence within the timeline of your own but simply seek to belittle my evidence - As the Tanzanian law changes were brought forward late in 2017 what good is comparing the difference between 2015 & 2017? Surely 2017 to 2018 would be more realistic. In any case the argument has been no investment in Tanzania and it hasn't been restricted to Extraction industries. The fact is there is further investment in all sectors, INCLUDING ARCACIA and soon to be the Zubs which I've shown it not to be anecdotal but reported as fact and not simply a reporters opinion!

d) point taken but I think you are clutching at straws because you know the sp fell after the spike on farm-out announcement (caused by manipulators here IMO) and you know as well as I do that the sp won't rise until the real action begins

e) So how do you get to the bit you want to do before doing the bits that need to be done first? Come on man be realistic. You are just clinging on to having a go for the sake of it. Repairs and remediation by definition has begun. Check the dictionary

f) Ok first of all its not government approval it is TPDC and I don't know the ins and outs of the technical issues to say what must be sorted but I remember it being something to do with pressures being supplied and the request to lower that pressure. Now the idea of changing the valve and then doing further pressure checks may or may not resolve that but as stated previously it is a process that has to be completed. From my own direct contact with the TPDC my own feeling is that this will be more of a technical issue at this stage rather than one of being deliberately held up as you and others like to promote! They want and need the gas (in 2019 demand outstrips supply) or is that something you conveniently forget?

g) You say you never said decrease. Well I never said increase but I have shown that investment continues to flood into the country. As for LNG the arguments over this becoming a reality has been going n long before the issues you bring up and cannot be used as an excuse for the big boys backing off. In my view that is just politics and brinkmanship that will take many years to resolve and if the gas Aminex has found at Ruvuma can keep going aiding industrialisation to 2049 then Tanzania have time to play hard b

HEX PART 3

"NT3 delayed. Who's denying that but to say it's a bigger risk with a farmout is a shockingly poor joke."
The risk of it being completed was increased at the cost of 50% stake. It still may not occur, The zubs might not be able to get a deal with the gov, they could walk away with a 17m loss. It happens, big companies walk away from such deals all the time. It is clear AEX failed to get such a deal with the gov.

The stake cost has already been priced in and while those who bought in at a higher price may not see the full gain we might have hoped for, those investing right now at these giveaway levels are getting an absolute bargain and I refute anyone that seeks to deny that.

"KW is undergoing repairs NOW". No just the valve, the full remediation to KW still awaits gov approval, which we have been waiting on for over a year.

Ahem! What part of repairing a broken valve is not a repair or remediating a problem? OK I take your point that the full program of repair is not fully underway at this point but to get to number two you have to do number one first.
The process includes rectifying the valve issue – running tests – analysing results - draining off fluids – reperforating – further tests & analysis – reconnection – production, none of which is done by one man alone and I assume will require different skilled workforce for different parts of the process

Perforation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duToyzpZqos

Completing a well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXdq65xzsus

A two minute job? Nope!

Top and bottom of all this, is you still haven’t shown the bb where investment has been pulled out of the country and I have actually shown that investment is being so.

Let’s also not forget that our Omani friends are about to invest a further £110m themselves in the farm-out.

Just to add from March this years - Close on 7.5% Growth Expected in Tanzania Says Moody's
https://aminexunofficial.blogspot.com/2018/07/close-on-75-growth-expected-in-tanzania.html

Now, I'm not sure how you would expect to see 7.5% growth unless there was investment?

Whilst you and others continually seek the negative where there is no proof to be found you dismiss facts that are placed before you on a daily basis!

As promised HEX PART 1
https://www.ft.com/content/af216094-aab9-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619
“African nations must resist siren song of resource nationalism”
Is that not just the writers opinion? I don’t subscribe so can’t read the full article

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=03eb6988-ed13-4ee4-813e-55963f2fc219
Tanzania’s Legal Reform of the Natural Resources Sector Threatens Extractive Industries
“It is likely that these amendments will significantly impact the mining and energy industries in Tanzania, and might cause the withdrawal of many existing investors in the resources industry in Tanzania.”
Just another writers opinion then? Note the word “MIGHT” Examples please

http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/oped/MDAs-legal-regime-in-Tanzania--A-comparative-analysis/1840568-4734634-1nvjdjz/index.html

MDAs legal regime in Tanzania: A comparative analysis
Did you notice that in 2005 The British Government retrospectively increased taxation to 50% on oil & gas companies operating in the North Sea!
Countries in the article include Bolivia. Ecuador, Venezuela Canada UK & Zambia who all sort to gain more profit from their own natural resources by various means but this author only sites that investment climate in Tanzania is viewed differently by the extractive industry.
Note the publication distances itself from the views of the author
Firstly, it is nothing more than a publication filling article using a regurgitated event from a year ago as its subject! Personally, I would say that is rather stating the obvious. It would be quite normal for companies to object, protest and think more carefully about further investment. However, Acacia and it’s claimed wrongdoings were the main reason for these changes being legislated but look at the news yesterday that shows they are in fact relocating their core functions to Tanzania
https://allafrica.com/stories/201809190657.html
While that is possibly a part of a settlement deal with the country it does show that there is enough profit in the extraction for the company to want to invest further.

CONT...

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