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Device Authority have been declared the outright winner by ABI Research inter competitive analysis of Device Lifecycle Management.
This is a big market and DA will command a selling price many many multiples of the current share price. Ignore the clowns who seek to disrupt and follow the research.
Wyld Networks will launch in the coming months and totally disrupt the satellite IoT market with their low cost technology that switches seamlessly between satellite and terrestrial signals.
FVR are the undoubted market leader in surgical VR Training. Currently working on either a Series B funding round or an IPO. With all of this hype on meta verse they are well positioned to become another unicorn.
Konektio have just opened an office in the US citing unprecedented demand for their Assetminder product.
Talking Medicines have just opened an office in Jersey City just across the Hudson from Manhattan but most importantly in the presence of almost all of the big players in Pharma.
All of this for a MC of £40 million. You don't have to be a genius to know that Tern offer huge potential to make a lot of money and as a bonus it is all derisked by having multiple players for your money.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jasonmwinkler_sbom-zerotrust-zerotrustsecurity-activity-6900548115066093568-1d-n
Agreed Antelope, this event today is unlikely to have anything to do with Device Authority for the reasons you stated. It would be nice to be surprised but there has been little evidence of them engaging in the payments area, albeit they are partnered with Multos.
Camkite to be fair to Tyrano1 they don't post very often and tend to be a bit more circumspect and measured than some of the posters. Very obviously a fan of Tern and their prospects and freely shares good research on the webinar attendance.
It has taken a lot longer than investors were led to believe back in the early days of Cryptosoft but it does look like Device Authorities time is here and now. I think the market just wasn't quite ready for large scale adoption of IoT and the likes of MS Azure and AWS didn't have their platforms fully developed. Looking at the MS latest results and the commentary around Azure there is clear evidence that it is finally moving rapidly. The FIDO/NIST thing that someone discovered this morning shows just how long it takes to get things done.
I share the enthusiasm. I see a company with huge potential for at least 3 of their portfolio members, with a very low market cap vs potential and derisked somewhat by the nature of the portfolio. Its been a frustrating hold but convinced it will pay large dividends.
Apologies, there was a limit to the number of characters.
80% margin on $200 million revenue is $160 million. With the market continuing to grow rapidly beyond 2025 I think you have to be looking at a p/e of 15-20. Again go conservative and use 15 giving a valuation of $2.4 billion.
We have to consider however that the valuation is a 2025 valuation and ask what a suitor would pay today in consideration of any risks they might perceive. I think $1 billion would be a good starting point. Before those with sky high valuations jump on me note that I used a fairly conservative approach.
There are a couple of caveats that should be considered. Firstly, Keyscaler opens up a massive market for Microsoft to grab. Its value to Microsoft goes way beyond its value to a cyber company or a systems integrator. Quite possible that Microsoft might be prepared to pay more than its raw cyber value. On the other hand I think it quite possible that something was agreed with Microsoft a couple of years back for Device Authority to focus entirely on Azure. Possibly some sort of milestone that once completed would trigger an acquisition by Microsoft at an agreed valuation (with some degrees of flexibility).
Anyway, just my musings. I have a feeling we'll know the truth pretty soon. Wondering if the piece mentioned in the MS webinar 3 weeks ago is the final milestone. Anyone recall the DA team standing outside a building in Silicon Valley a few years back. We speculated and DA removed the photo. Was that the moment that the future was agreed?
Plenty of good discussion around valuation. Forget revenues because it isn't going to be about that . As a few have pointed out this will be more than likely a strategic investment.
Why might Microsoft be interested in buying Device Authority? Anyone reading up on the IoT and the obstacles to the large scale adoption by large enterprises (the sort who attended the DA summit) will have seen that securing at scale is always No 1 or No 2 depending on which article you read.
If DA have cracked this complex issue ( and MS and others seem to agree ) then it can provide MS with a head start in getting large enterprises onto Azure. With a market that will rise from $250 billion per annum today to $1.3 billion per annum by 2025 it is easy to see why someone like MS might want to take DA in house, and deny their competitors that solution. Obviously someone will eventually build an equivalent solution (have to avoid breaching patents) but by then its game over. Once MS has them on Azure they won't be leaving for a long time. Make no mistake DA have a product that is a key enabler for a huge market.
Of course there are other categories of suitors. There are countless large cyber companies that simply don't have a product for the IoT market. They are too late because they are even behind the laggards. The one thing they do have is the ability to make an offer for DA that Tern and Alsop Louie would find hard to refuse. Another possibility is one of the larger Systems Integrators who all had multiple attendees at the recent summit. Keyscaler is essentially a lifecycle management tool for IoT with a SaaS model which will give predictable revenues for 10-15 years into the future. The Deloittes, Accentures, Wipro's etc acquire such capability regularly.
Then there is the question of valuation. The only reasonable method that I think you can use is to look at the size of that niche market that DA operate in. One of the problems is that I've seen it quoted as $2 billion per annum in 20205 right up to $29 billion per annum in 2025. Using the most conservative approach lets assume its the former. We also know that Device Authorities is joint technology leader in the sector with Entrust (Spark Matrix 2020) although I think they are a clear No.1 because Entrust and their recent acquisition nCipher are very palsy with them. What is a reasonable market share for the leader to have? I've heard some talk about >50% but I think it will be in the 10-20% range since not everyone will have huge numbers of devices so they might opt for solutions that are adequate.
10% of a $2 billion market would be $200 million per annum in 2025 in a market that isn't just going to stop growing in 2025. With margins of 80% + typically then even on the conservative side you end up with large numbers.
To pay a large price now is obviously a gamble for anyone wishing to buy but that is being derisked rapidly. Large enterprises take considered risks in their acquisitions all
The applications for this particular piece of Wyld Networks technology are wide, very wide. Looking forward to getting news no who these global resellers will be and what their commentary might be on what is about to unfold. Lets not forget that Wyld are also partnered with a global leader in Satellites to provide IoT connectivity to areas of the globe difficult to service with standard communications.
Then we have Device Authority co presenting this week with Microsoft for the 4th or 5th time and Fundamental VR knocking it out of the park in Surgical Training.
The 20p Zak talked about is only an early staging post. As details emerge about the 3 gems in the stable I think we'll see all time highs breached in the not too distant. My advice to anyone looking in for the first time is to look at the news sections for each of the companies. With multiple companies it can be difficult to keep up with the chatter between longer term holders. Look at each of the companies news flow and ask yourself if these are companies going places in markets that are worth multi billions per annum. Then ask yourself where else you would get such an opportunity at £33 million market cap.
I had a similar concern. I was worried that they had given exclusivity to Agilis (who by the way cannot cover the entire UK market). If a test was subsequently proven inaccurate or if a client wanted to use a different test then there were going to be unnecessary constraints. I've been told that they are speaking to other rapid test providers. They weren't specific as to who they are talking to but the wider they cast the net the better in my opinion. I have shares in NCYT , ODX and AVCT so was hoping for a snippet. Anyway the key thing is that they won't be tied to a single test.
I must have signed into at least 100 webinars over the last 5 years. For the most part they are informative and now and again give you a little hint of what is going on behind the scenes. Never have I come across one from a company on Terns books at just over £1 million that lays the foundation for that company to reach valuations that should reach £ hundreds of millions in a very short time. Of course they need to execute but with global reseller deals to be signed in the near term and being inundated with requests I'd have to say that this is a no risk scenario. Throw in Device Authority presenting with Microsoft next week and FundamentalVR and we'll quickly see new highs.
That was a pretty good webinar that again underlines how Device Authority have positioned their Keyscaler platform right in the middle of the IoT infrastructure.
Keyscaler is the first device centric lifecycle management product to market.
Multos have the most secure chips on the market. Presumably they're costly and used only in the most sensitive markets.
The fact that Multos saw it worthwhile to have Device Authority co-present is quite telling for me. Ultimately Multos want to sell as many of their expensive and highly secure chips as possible. What do Device Authority bring to the table?
I believe the Systems Integrators who have been attending Device Authority webinars in increasing numbers fully understand the cost benefits of Device Lifecycle Management. That message is getting fed into the chip and device manufacturers and is why we are seeing webinars now focus on them. The Systems Integrators will choose devices that can integrate easily with Keyscaler. Aligning themselves with Device Authority will bring increased chip sales for Multos via the Systems Integrators who will make these decisions for large enterprises.
That list can be broken down mostly into financials, telecoms, automotive and industrials. There are also a few defence oriented companies there. I took a quick look at the attendees on Brighttalk and there are loads of other possibly smaller companies.
Looking very interesting indeed.
KK, the world of AIM is a strange one. The news that DA were partnering with Microsoft in April 2018 started the run to 58p.
A questionable speeding ticket and relentless sledging of the company have brought the sp to 9p.
We now have evidence that the partnership is delivering and we have lots of other developments for DA. In addition we now have FVR looking like a company that will command a very high valuation in 12-24 months.
Only a matter of time until the market wakes up to this again. Not complaining. I’ve managed to add significantly over the last month.
We got some very nice comments a few weeks ago from a UK based Microsoft guy.
This tops that in spades. Microsoft have just told hundreds of thousands of developers around the world that they can’t provision large scale deployments but Keyscaler can. It is also clear from the video that there are multiple contracts being jointly executed in industrial, health and automotive.
This is only Microsoft. We should see a major acceleration in business now. Should also bring M&A and IPO into play as possible near to medium term strategies. Happy to sit back and wait for the penny to drop.
https://www.ternplc.com/rss
If you look at the newsflow from the portfolio companies it’s pretty clear that collectively this lot is worth multiples of today’s share price. The market will wake up to this although it might take a revaluation event or an exit. I think Tern would also like an exit soon to prove their business model to institutional investors and to give them the funds to expand their portfolio to about 10 companies.
Absolutely no doubt for me that Device Authority are a player of some significance in the IOT security market which ensures a very good valuation at whatever point Tern decide to exit. My guess is that Tern may be tempted to sell DA in the next 12 months, if they get a reasonable offer.
Too early for FVR. They have the potential to be a £1 billion company and possibly higher than that in time. The pharma device market is new but expect to see other companies approaching FVR now that a major has contracted them. Time to market for these guys is critical. FVR can significantly impact that. The surgical training product revenue will be huge especially when their general surgery package is ready. And of course there will be the revenues from sharing the data with insurance companies. Expect to see an injection of cash from VC’s to fund acceleration in growth. They have a significant technical advantage which they need to exploit immediately.
So for me it’s a sell of DA, a VC infusion into FVR and back on the acquisition trail. So far they haven’t put in any additional funding to InVMA which appears to be self funding, nor to Wyld, although that could change as it starts to gain traction.
I suspect we won’t be waiting very long.
Trout, you were thrown off the thread because you attacked every other poster. No one else was allowed an opinion. It was your opinion or none. Then you created a new thread with an almost identical name. You haven't answered why you did this. One can only surmise that you wished to create confusion. You had a message that you wanted to get out and it needed to be heard.
I have also been investing in AIM for a long time. The number one lesson I have learnt is that I need to try to respect all points of view equally. To believe I am the only one that could be correct will get me into trouble or cause me to miss an opportunity. I may offer my pov from time to time but it matters not whether people agree or disagree. If I continually bang out that pov and attack posters for not agreeing then am I any better than a troll or a ramper?
When I look at the ADVFN board I see a bunch of people who were also there in 2014/15. They have been resolute in their belief that Tern will deliver significant returns. There may be a few who may seem to have wholly unrealistic expectations. Only time will tell if they are correct.
While some people may have managed to take some profits from the spike I believe that for the most part that group of posters held onto their shares. So hardly a pump and dump gang as you suggest. Certainly there might be one or two individuals playing a clever game but that's true on both sides of the argument.
The big lesson I have taken over the years is that anything is possible on AIM. Is Tern a good bet? Probably. Its operating in very fast growing markets. It has 4 decent looking companies. There will certainly be further developments that will grab the imagination of the markets. There will be plenty more spikes and troughs along the way. And at some point they may deliver an exit that vindicates those who are genuinely bullish on the stock.
In the meantime the noise will try to move the sp in the direction that suits their trading strategy.
Trout, Could you answer a couple of questions for our readers here?
(1) When Still Waiting threw you off his thread for blatant trolling, you set up your own thread with an almost identical name. Why did you choose that name?
(2) You claim to have bought into Tern when the price fell to 2p. Reasonable enough to assume that you fancied a trade in a technical bounce. But if you truly believed everything you issued about Tern then surely that would have been no more than a little punt. But you threw quite a lot of money at your punt. Don’t you find that a bit of a contradiction?
(3) Don’t you also find it strange that despite your serious reservations about Tern you held onto it as it multibagged? It didn’t go straight to 58p. There were a number of stops and placings along the way. You must have nerves of steel to hold onto something you didn’t value, that had already multibagged.
(4) is there any significance that your buddies Stead and Duxy are also back in full flow posting non stop about a company they don’t see a future for?
Strange. the 60k and 25k at 3.7p are my buys. spread was 3.7p to 3.8p. They were letting me buy on the bid price. I tried a dummy sell and they would also give me 3.7p to sell 100k.
A few games being played here I think. A little patience should be well rewarded here imho. GLA
For most shares I’d agree. And there will come a time when the rises will stop and we’ll get a retrace of some sort. This is one share however where solid research strongly suggests that we’re looking at something very special on AIM. A couple of factors drove the price down to 2p. Delays in launching products by the major players and a boardroom battle to put control into the hands of those with the skill and the vision to place the companies in the portfolio amongst those major companies that will grab the lions share of the $2 trillion IOT market. Device Authority is rapidly showing its hand as the leader in the virgin IOT Identity Access Management market ($3 billion per annum). Not only that, but it has become strategically important to Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Thales, Gemalto and Comodo, who are each throwing billions at IOT in order to secure their slice of the market. For those that think the rises can’t go on: imo prepare to be amazed. Device Authority are about to announce several product launches followed by a massive PR blitz, aimed primarily at grabbing more market share, but consequentially flushing out offers from potential suitors. M&A activity is red hot in IOT. This is the major growth playground for IT and Cyber companies after years of flatline or declining sales in the traditional PC and server markets.
Rooney, not always a good idea to invest in a share where you don�t know what the company does. However Tern has a portfolio of companies that are attempting to establish themselves in markets that are growing exponentially. Device Authority is their flagship company delivering a patented security platform for the Internet of Things. Their market is projected to be $3 billion per annum by 2021 and will continue to grow at about 30% per annum for at least 5 years after that. Partnerships with Microsoft, Dell, IBM, Thales, Amazon Web Services, Gemalto, intel and Comodo strongly suggest that Device Authority will be a leader in that market. There are a number of product launches anticipated in June and I suspect this will continue over the summer. The share is tightly held by many holders with averages in single figures. It is quite obvious that Device Authority is very very valuable, but once Device Authority is sold there is a growing stable of other exciting tech companies whose development will continue to grab the attention of the markets. Todays share price whilst impressive is imho a mere speck of where it will eventually get to. People are only just waking up to the potential here. By the end of June I suspect most investors will know about Tern.
Thought this was very good off another board. Explains that the issue of cybersecurity for IOT devices is very difficult, and why Device Authority will be extremely successful. https://www.vanillaplus.com/2018/04/12/37525-internet-broken-things-10-key-facts-iot-part-1/ Device Authorities Keyscaler solves these problems. Quite interesting that the biggest (Symantec) and 2nd biggest (Thales/Gemalto) cyber security companies with all their endpoint protection and antivirus software come to Device Authority for the solution to securing IOT devices. The reason is that their products can�t scale to the billions of devices that are coming. Their products require significantly more processing power at the device. Power which these devices won�t have. But Keyscaler has been designed specifically for this purpose, and their technology is protected by patents. Surely Microsoft with the best computing brains in the business could have come up with a means of securing all those devices. And if these guys can�t do it then the same problem faces the other major players. The Device Authority partner page has a host of major companies who will use Keyscaler. It isn�t an option. If they can�t secure all the devices that they hope to connect to their platforms then they�re very quickly going to lose ground to those that can.