be little doubt that such a modern military campaign would almost certainly include an extensive cyb15 Feb 2022 20:26
Right now, the world has a front-row seat to what could possibly be the first full-scale cyber war in the making. With some 130,000 Russian troops arrayed around Ukraine’s borders, the risk of invasion is high, and there can be little doubt that such a modern military campaign would almost certainly include an extensive cyber attack component. Even if there is ultimately no attempt to invade Ukraine with conventional forces, there is widespread consensus that President Vladimir Putin has put himself in a position where he must do something. A cyber attack — which is easy and comparatively cheap — is likely to top that list. As Russia showed during the 2008 Georgia conflict, hacking government systems as well as financial and energy sectors can cause chaos.
Though some in the west may believe this isn’t their problem, that attitude reflects a disregard for history. It was less than five years ago that Russia conducted NotPetya, a cyber attack targeting Ukrainian power, transportation, and financial systems in an attempt to further destabilise the country. But rather than being the cyber equivalent of a precision smart bomb, NotPetya spread rapidly across the globe.
The attack caused companies around the world — including in the US, UK, France, Germany, and India — to suffer massive operational disruptions. With ripple effects hitting nearly every corner of the global economy, total worldwide costs were estimated by the White House to exceed $10bn.
Today, not only is the threat of a cyber attack higher, but the risk of damage is far greater. Microsoft has already warned that it has detected destructive malware recently placed within Ukrainian computer networks, spanning multiple government, non-profit and information technology organisations. The lesson learned from NotPetya is that once activated, this malware could spread far beyond its intended targets.
The US Department of Homeland Security has warned that even if a cyber attack targeted against Ukraine did not spread beyond its borders, Russian disruptive or destructive cyber attacks directly against the US are possible. This is a real risk for all Nato members.
Finding an escape from this particular crisis is beyond the power of any individual organisation, company or executive. But what is within our own control are the often woefully inadequate cyber defences we deploy. While there is no silver bullet, it is clear that a foundational element of securing our systems is the concept of collective defence. This connects companies and other organisations — esp
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