Member Info for dradrianc1

Didnt the kristo offer use SQZ cash?? If so, offer wasnt 4.25 but more like 3.00 ??? ***g packet sums and hazy memory
This deal effectively gives away 500 million i think for a return of 4.5 million a day gross roughly plus a reduced tax bill. Not sure its all bad?.??

Didnt the kristo offer use SQZ cash?? If so, offer wasnt 4.25 but more like 3.00 ??? ***g packet sums and hazy memory

Not sure my *** packet sums are accurate

drop the price by selling to buy back cheaper?

agreed. 100%.. how to make money lesson 1........scare, crash, buy, smile and sell. london know the game very very well having invented it.

agreed and what little i know suggests gas discovery isnt commercialy viable and the well be used for water disposal. I guess Ja is well under water with his/her gamble. no pun intended

If SQZ are paid in USD, then they can now buy MORE UKP every day, so the balance sheet and UKP cash position improves with a weak UKP. I see a roughly 10% drop in UKP/USD and thus, cash position improves daily. slight loss if converting USP to USD BUT WE DONT DO THAT.... all good for commodity players paid in USD

I agree with your figures. I estimated 471m UKP so 600USD in cash. so cash = MC and a divi of 30% free cash is potentially 1 quid a share. what's not to like?

possible if the settlement is small (say $20m), but if its in the region of $100m, their % will be small and likely capped

Only reason I'm here is for the highly probable settlement. Lawyers on the case for free and I recall sometime ago, a broker saying that the Slovenian government generally caves in and settles prior to court when it gets nasty . get nasty.

The Company announces that, following a further letter from the State received today, an amicable settlement is presently not achievable and it expects to commence arbitration proceedings shortly. As part of direct pre-arbitration settlement discussions the Company had submitted a damages calculation to the State totalling significantly in excess of €100 million.

yep and the FCA and powers that be do nothing... this is effectively a buy out and should be on the same rules as any takeover. offer a premium and take to a vote... this is a gun to the head take it or leave it and AIM regulators should intervene and stop it. Its criminal

#skeletor... I agree, massive change in less than an hour, I tried double check but seems right . I think there are worries about COP26 and its the futures market that has spooked spot price, but even at 140, its 2x H1. we've had some good money in Q3 and even with a $140 ave for nov and back to $77 for dec, I think we are approaching 550m cash in H2 alone. (USD or UKP, I forget!). Im only here for the divi

WTF, just noticed that. down at 140? quick revision of numbers and assume only $15m/month profit for nov/dec (ie., back to $77), then cash is say $480m, so 30% for divi = a quid, or 30%

#lucky --- interesting. 2 points.
1. ban coal but clearly not overnight, so gradual run down until say only 1 mine and 1 power station that requires it. Demand is down, so prices should be down, BUT as the only supplier in a niche industry, its a game of chicken and maybe the mine gets a good niche price?... 1 on 1 is extreme but depending on the rate of decommissioning power stations verses rate of mine closures there is a lot of money to be made, if coal becomes scarce to obtain?
2. your investment is sound and based on coal prices in Q3, TGA could have generated $300m in cash? The October highs could have generated another $150M, so if only a mere $200m is generated in last 2 months (using $177/ton and reduced output due to rail), they might (??) have 650m in free cash (excl. current 150M!!) of which 30% is committed to dividend, so 200m/135m = 1.5UKP divi or a close to 50% return at todays SP!!!! All because the woke don't like coal. makes me laugh. DONT FORGET, if making (you say 17m) money on $77/ton and the average for 1st 4 months of H2 is greater than 2, then if COS and admin don't change then effectively an extra $77m/month... Lots of ways to do the sums but this is a cash cow

even if I am way out by a factor of 3, they should have 100m for divi and that's assuming all the highs of H2 only generate $50m cash to the current pile....so a mere 75p or 25% return. This is a no brainer unless I have completely lost touch

that's all UK and gas is sold worldwide with different prices. look at NGN2022 and NGN2023 and their futures are 4.001 and 3.287 respectively. Sorry gas is staying high for 3 months IMHV

every share has a SP correlating with one of the basic ratios of P/B, P/S, P/NAV, P/E etc etc. working with JKX I believe the SP has a correlation with cash and is strongly effected by the $14m potential liability we have. for example;
30/6/20 cash was 14.5m and SP was 18p. ratio 18/14=0.8
31/12/20 cash was 24.3m and SP was 33p. ratio 24.3/33=0.74. take the average so= 0.77
30/6/21 cash was 36.5m and SP was 30p?? However, April we learn about potential 14m Liability so (36.5-14)/0.77 and SP should be 29p to maintain the correlation, so fair price. Likewise,
30/9/21 cash was 51.5 and therefore predicted SP is (51.5-14)/0.77 = 49p, pretty close correlation again!
at year end, I believe, subject to energy prices, that cash will be in excess of 72m and therefore predict/expect SP to be around (70-14)/0.77 = 75p
so can some one else estimate cash and year end and offer confirmation or otherwise. BTW, I did predict a 51.5m cash position at Q3 using the interims and changes in energy prices. DYOR and check my logic and numbers... We are undervalued but we know why

yes, I have extensive models on SQZ and I still think they will average 23600 boepd over 2021. they needed 32000 boed in q4 to hit year guidance but if this remains at 26000 pessimistically (ignore Columbus for this year) then average for year is 23600 boed. Even at these numbers Q3 SP should be 232p and year end around 300p based on average of P/S, P/NAV and other fudge factors. 2021 sales estimated to be 320M (H1 101m), cash is rising fast increasing NAV and while difficult to estimate, it could be between 200 and 270M at year end. I might be right or I might be wrong but regardless, its a good low risk shareshare IMHO

yes, gas is down, so is SQZ, but gas is still less than 90% off its peak....it's currently 5.79 dollars verses a peak of 6.2 Dollars on spot price..... different countries subsidies differently and USA has relatively cheap gas, Ukraine doesn't and everyone in between has contracts for renewal.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price

yes, so Putin will throttle back? its money, follow the money

@greypanther. yes, many thanks, it helps . good luck to you