Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I’m a biiiiiiiig fan of Technical Analysis. However, I find proponents of TA often take quite a while to say not very much. I’m happy to be proven wrong however… So, in * 3 words or less * how would we sum up today’s price action and next week’s outlook?
Is MM a man with a Plan?
We know he dislikes being listed on the LSE. We also know that he and the board have been in receipt of at least 3 offers of various degrees of seriousness (and anecdotally many more), all of which have been turned down. Why?
Could be fiduciary duty to the company (and by extension its employees, charitable beneficiaries, & other stakeholders).
MM dislikes/distrusts debt funded transactions - this was one of the main reasons quoted for turning down last years’ public offers. Why? He views the burden of a debt funded transaction as overly onerous on a business that doesn’t get to benefit itself from the debt. Oke has pointed out several times that the business can’t currently take much more debt & so to have gone through a debt funded transaction last year would indeed have been ruinous (think Twitter).
Could be he’s a control freak - we are told the Apollo bid failed because he didn’t like the loss of control over the individual business units. Apollo wanted controlling equity over each division. Why? So they could carve it up and sell it off piecemeal… So is MM really a control-freak in this instance, or was he again most concerned about his fiduciary duties to the company (as all good company directors should be).
Or, maybe just maybe MM is a man with a Plan. If he hates the LSE as much as he claims surely he could have made one of the many offers to go private work by now. Is there an end game in play and the offers to date have just been sideshows? Who knows, but MM is a proven dealmaker so it can’t be ruled out IMO.
The biggest corporate change over the last year is we no longer have MM as CEO and Chairman, with duties to both the company and its shareholders. Instead we have TGL as Chairman and a raft of Exec/NED changes/improvements since. Again, why bother if the goal is to leave the LSE as quick as possible without a care to the existing shareholders. Equally, as a well respected NED where integrity and reputation is everything, why put your name to THG if a corporate shafting is on the agenda.
I’m unashamedly with Canary3 on this one. In MM, TGL, and the board we trust.
All IMO, DYOR & GL to us all
“We mention Tesco and its subsequent accounting scandal(opens a new window) purely as reason why investors pay attention to such things as a general matter, to be clear.”
Very cute from the FT… dodged the legal letter there I reckon.
Also liked the bit where they’d highlighted (twice!) the word fraud from an excerpt of THG financials. You know, the division that protects customers from fraudulent transactions (not the bit in the accounts where THG fess up to all the frauds…)
FT war-room WhatsApp group back on overdrive
Yep you guys are crackers. So what MM rejected Apollo, he’s done it numerous time before without any of us realising or caring. MM is a man with a plan. He managed to get near enough £6 a share from SoftBank not too long ago. Why would we want to boot him off the board so we can be taken out for £2? Patience is required from the fast money 35…
Here you go @Space73
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_McKellen
Sir Ian Murray McKellen CH CBE (born 25 May 1939) is an English actor. With a career spanning over six decades, he is noted for his performances on the screen and stage in genres ranging from Shakespearean dramas and modern theatre to popular fantasy and science fiction.
Bit of legend really
The City Spy @TheCitySpy
Different folk have different tools at their disposal.
moodyrich @moodyrich1
Does anybody know how they are doing this? I would be really interested to know? It’s nuts!
The City Spy @TheCitySpy
I do very well but I am not going to get into it on twitter. It's not sinister as such. Just having a good view of the book and the ability to spot openings and act FAST.
4:08 am · 12 May 2023
The quants have been reducing over the last few days, coinciding with a harsh drop in SP. If there’s anything I know about AI, it’s that it is (i) FAST, and (ii) prone to producing counter-intuitive results.
Yes the SP could indicate no deal, my personal opinion however is it’s indicative of PI’s being shaken out by AI - trend of the decade I fear.
All IMHO, DYOR, etc.
Don’t forget optionality folks. Strategic minority investment into Nutrition / Beauty would give THG the cash and time to achieve critical mass. It then becomes a cash generative asset that the Dino-Market can value. A deal would be nice but no deal is fine for a LTH like me