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I absolutely think there will be dilution. The idea that the $30 million needed to get to the next stage will be entirely funded by debt is for the birds.
Whilst the company is struggling for money, financial institutions in today's market are going to want a nice slice of the pie. Look at it as providing a deposit for a self build mortgage, I personally think that they will need to raise between 20 to 30 % of the $30 million using equity, call it about $7.5 million. If we assume that the finance package is to be agreed fairly shortly, that price is going to have to be at a discount to today's share price, call it 2.5p and therefore the dilution could be in the order of 300 million new shares.
It's going to be a good 12 to 18 months after raising the money before the company has any income, do people genuinely think that Tlou are going to start paying back the loan using the money they borrowed?
This is not a deramp, this is just sensible thinking.

The permeability of the coal is a bit of a moot point if it remains saturated with water. You (and I suspect the company also) have no idea of the required volume of water that needs to be removed, but clearly 2 pods was not enough. In fact, it could be argued the high permeability of the coal is the main problem, there isn't enough hydraulic resistance within the coal seam to enable effective dewartering of the well. This water source could be a perched water table and only a few extra wells could make a big difference as there could be a finite volume of water to remove or conversely we could be trying to drain half of Southern Africa.
Going down the solar route now suggests that this issue is a can they want to kick down the road.

" the good-problem-to-have of high water permeability." - WTF! It's not a 'good problem' if you can't get all the water out.

With the emphasis now on solar, one has to question the value of the gas assets. What drew me to Tlou some 4 years ago was Tony Gilbey referring to 'joining the dots' by drilling and drilling, proving up gas reserves and increasing asset value towards selling the whole lot. My view was that the gas CBM was to make the company more attractive by giving a direct route to market with all the bureaucratic issues dealt with, adding further value. All seems a bit odd to me, if we can't make full use of the gas reserves, where's the USP? Any company can acquire acreage in Botswana and set up a solar farm, it's not like they're short of sun and open space.

Also worth remembering should Aeternum make an offer they only have to fund 80% of the purchase because they already own the other 20%

In today's RNS:

"Asiamet is also in the process of appointing its own M&A advisors to support the board and management in considering any proposal received from Aeternum or any other groups post the exclusivity period."

This reads to me that the company expects a purchase rather than an investment. 'Other groups post the exclusivity period' says to me that maybe the other two interested parties have come back to the table, but are excluded unless a deal is done with Aeternum. This could get very interesting ............

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/ARS/14519429.html

That's why I was asking the question, the RNS stated that drilling had commenced in Q3 2019, six months later they announced the cost saving measures you refer to, what happened in between? They were only drilling sample core holes with the intention to increase their reserves, these typically don't take that long to complete, it's not like drilling for oil. As far as I can see there is no further mention of testing in the Mamba area in subsequent RNS's, maybe they didn't find any coal and are using the current global issues to brush it under the carpet?
They should really put it in an RNS, it goes back to what Whizzer said that he doesn't understand why there is nothing else to report. The past 12 months this BOD have done an exceptional job of killing investor confidence with a lack of transparency.

Company started drilling in the Mamba licence some 8 months ago, what happened with the results?

October 2019 RNS:

Core-hole drilling

During the quarter, Tlou commenced core-hole drilling in the Mamba project area. Operations are being conducted using Tlou's core drilling rig and Tlou's experienced field-based personnel. As the Company is not using external drilling contractors the costs of core drilling are relatively low.



Core-hole drilling and core analysis provides valuable information regarding coal quality and gas content. This data is required for the expansion of the Company's gas Reserves and Contingent Resources and providing information to assess new areas for potential development.

"RNS also states (as has previously) that funding options being explored are ‘debt or equity funding or a mix of both’. Given TG’s previous views that shareholders have already shouldered much of the weight and that we’re funded to the end of the year, are we confident that further placings will be minimal if indeed necessary?"

Well clearly the statement states there are three scenarios going forward, 2 out of 3 of these scenarios will involve share dilution, so I would suggest that there is a 66% chance that there will be an impact on shareholders. Worst case scenario is just only equity funding, RNS clearly states it’s an option. Best case scenario is a loan only with favourable terms. However, even if they shortly agree the loan only route, realistically it’s still going to be 18 months before the company is generating enough income to service that loan, so even then they’re bound to doing cash raises along the way to pay for wages and liabilities.

The idea that there is a minimal chance of dilution is for the birds.

Today is just private investors taking a position, the traders with big money will arrive in about 3 weeks I reckon and when they do, I think we will be around the 5p mark before news of the deal.

Or 7.5 billion in USD.

http://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.aeturnum_energy_international_pte_ltd.f4293a6094fc72a43c265f3e46ee73a5.html#company-info

One thing that is for sure, in about 4 weeks volume will pick up significantly as traders jumping aboard and start buying in anticipation of a deal. Buying today at this price is a pretty safe bet that you should make some decent money.

I don’t think the 60 days will be extended, my feeling is that DD has already been done and the principles of the deal have already been agreed. The recent placing is for those who stand to benefit most from this deal by feathering their nest and loading up at a rock bottom price in anticipation of significant share price increase when the deal is formally announced. The 60 day period is there to make all parties look whiter than white. Why would Aeturnum Energy buy 20% of the company and then undermine their own investment by engaging in protracted negotiations or even walking away from the deal? Doesn’t make sense.

'Whizzer I wish you luck in finding a better prospect than TLOU in today's markets.'

Brad, I beg to differ, I reckon Asiamet is a much better prospect than Tlou for the next 12 months

Brad,
I wouldn't listen to anything Colm has to say, remember he recently advised a 'related party' to buy 100,000 shares at 4.5p. I wonder if they still talk to each other!
This temporary reduction of salaries is clearly to answer any forthcoming financial queries from ASX regarding short term cash. Trouble is, it gives the general impression of a company on its last legs.
I thought the RNS was pretty depressing TBH.

Clearly he's been tipped off something significant is about to happen. He bought 45 million shares from the recent fund raise and has added around 70 million more since then.

Presumably this is the bloke:
http://www.thebigchilli.com/news/thebigchilli-profile-mark-greenwood

I've always assumed that the solar element would be farmed out, Tlou would get a cut of the revenue and contribution towards the costs of power lines and connection at Serowe.

Lesedi 5 was vertically drilled at the start of last year, only the lateral element was needed for completion. Questions have to be asked why Lesedi 5 was not completed as per 3 and 4. Having 50% more water being pumped out the reservoir may have reduced the water levels sufficiently to obtain commercial gas flows across all three wells. Seems to me that penny pinching over the wells at the beginning may end up being a very expensive mistake.

"TLOU will be trading north of 6.50p (+100%) by month end."

MinorMiner, here's a quote for you, you're a clown and you haven't got a clue. Funny how today you weren't up at first light to put your 'Strong Buy' recommendation against another bad news RNS.