Member Info for Douvrey

Thank you for that AL. I was aware of the Portuguese activity, but had little idea what it in fact entailed. I feel a lot of the present trouble could be helped by NESF having a better comms strategy. Poor retail sales and the as yet small declines in inflation augur well, I think. Truth is that such a decline leaves you wondering if there is something lurking which everyone else can see but you can't. I'm feeling more confident as time goes on.

Have all the sellers sold? Helped by the inflation figures and the relief they gave to gilts, of course. But hopeful.

As an observation, many charts are getting blown out in terms of time. It’s been far too long since there was last a weekly cycle low (broadly a bi-yearly low). Strange times.

My thoughts, FWIW, are that gilt yields are up - though not hugely - and bad international press for eco-companies - no idea why that works in U.K. I’m really not clear why they’ve stopped buying back shares - but from reading other chat boards it seems there’s been a lot of gaming by day traders so perhaps that is connected? Seems to me like a strange thing to stop buying at this time. My amateur attempts at charting are confounded by recent price action - the chart has been bombed out in terms of price and time. But from here I think you’d have to be concerned about a fraud or the like to sell - only my opinion. It seems inevitable to me that the next 4 years will see the U.K. have a favourable environment for eco companies. I bought in April at 70.9p, so I’m not hurting as much as some - but I am as baffled. Just my opinion.

AL75 - It is certainly something to be considered. Your approach to valuation doesn't seem unreasonable either. The interviews make clear that they are waiting on the cost of capital to decline - saving their discount rate and borrowing rate. The slightly frustrating thing is that 10 year gilt yield is starting to come down. I expect it will decline further. The news flow of an anti-green POTUS hasn't been positive - for sure. My hope is that the news settles down and my belief is that a recession comes - cheery, eh?

Fisherking - you might well be right. For my part however I will be holding on to it. My reasoning is as follows.

1. I quite like charting. I think we are presently descending into an Intermediate Cycle Low. I think that because the last one was early April - Intermediate cycles, aka "Weekly cycles", generally last about 6 months and the RSI has been declining. The RSI is not yet in oversold territory, so there may be some more declines to come, but it is getting close. Such a decline is usually swiftly followed by a ICL. ICLs are interesting as they have to be followed by a daily cycle which does not fail (where price does not dip below the ICL). Also, this IC has not failed - meaning that it has not dipped below 70.3p, the low set in April. Having said that it is getting awfully close, and my belief is that we might have another couple of weeks to go before that happens. If that happens then you might well be right, and I will have to revisit my present position.

The main reason for that happening, as far as I can see, is that the BoE lose control of the long dated bond yields. I have to say that the Budget really didn't do anything to tame my deep sense of foreboding about how this HMG will get along with financial markets. If that happens the discount rate goes up - meaning NAV goes down - and I think it would be likely that its S/T borrowing rates would increase. Against that however is the notion that if that happens then we are pitching into a fairly bad recession, which generally cures high bond yields, and what better asset to be in than a utility with guaranteed income streams?

My other reason for staying is that I bought Hochschild a couple of years ago for 59p. It was just after the election in Peru and they had been at 40p. They went up to 80p (IIFC), then came right the way back to 60p - where like an idiot I sold. That's why I got into charting - which I accept is a generally frowned upon technique. I find it gives me some sort of framework to approach problems rationally, which in turn gives me time to think about my response as opposed to react. To repeat, you may very well be right about this, and I have no special expertise nor special knowledge about this or any other share. I'm certainly not advising anyone in what they should do. However I find I feel a bit better about setting out my thoughts here and I'm sorry if this is found to be indulgent and dull.

Douvrey.

Thank you Actuary. My only concern with the company is that they are investing to replace the natural tail off in their generating assets. I'd like to see them attempt to grow, even a little. I was fortunate enough to buy at 70.9p (for once my charting worked), but who really needs an 11% yield? I think a more forward thinking approach might do more for the share price than buybacks - which I don't criticise as I can see the logic.