Member Info for Douvrey

Bull/Bear of Investors Chronicle bought them and wrote about it this morning.

I did too. It was very reliable, printed Intermediate cycle lows to the very day of prediction - incredibly regular. Now it’s not. I am very keen to buy it but this summer is starting to look a little dangerous to me.

Just on the off chance, but are there any technical traders following RIO? I'm trying to figure out if RIO left a Daily Cycle Low (in DCL1) on 3rd of June, making the 11th June an early Half Cycle High (scenario 1) - meaning we are now in a failed DCL 2, or if we are still trying to find a Daily Cycle Low in DCL1 (Scenario 2). If scenario 1 then it doesn't look brilliant as it is quite left translated - but not fatal. If we are in a failed DCL 2 then that is really quite bad. Not here to upset anyone, just wondered if anyone was looking and had news. Best of luck to you all, and I hope the charts make a fool of me.

Looks to be the prospect of falling rates really moves it. Or is it something else?

RIO isn't doing too well on the rumour it seems. RIO might be worth a punt. If the market reaction stays broadly unsupportive then a rebound could ensue if and when it is denied.

I saw the articles but didn’t read them Thought it’d be unlikely that NESF would be involved as it’s quite big. Would welcome views. Did wonder if NESF was thinking about bidding for BESS assets from Harmony, but that may be me trying to rationalise why the buybacks have stopped.

I was thinking of this, but there are a number of initiatives on at the moment which also deserve attention. The reason why I was thinking about this is that renewable companies are operating in a fair negative news environment at the moment, and this was the next opportunity for the government to re-emphasise the importance of this sector.

https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/notes/esg/2025-posts/UK-Government-Launches-Consultation-on-Further-Reforms-to-the-Contracts-for-Difference-Scheme-for-Allocation-Round-7

What they lack is a sense of going anywhere. It may be that the anticipated government report into the industry provides a bit of visibility for the sector going forward, but it’s a difficult issue and I’m not holding my breath. I remain a shareholder but when I bought just over a year ago I’d anticipated feeding more in. I haven’t done that.

Does anyone know how Glencore will calculate what to do with any surplus come August. They teased in their results that their indicative cash was $4.8bn, and it is said that they disburse 1/4 of that, which I think is due this August. Do they have that as a dividend or do they continue to buy back shares (not my favoured option). All thoughts welcomed.

Can I ask why you say that? I’m genuinely interested. I’m interested in buying it myself, as I think inflation will likely come and anything "real" will be a good hedge. In addition, I think that, from a charting PoV, it’s in its timing band to print a ICL, which is normally when you should be thinking about buying. Yet I’m pausing as I can’t shake the notion it’s falling further. It’s weird. The company management seems pretty poor. I sometimes think, when I read their statements in the press, that they are actually waiting to be bought. Only the other day I heard the awful Nagle say that the trading unit was something that was, "unique and couldn’t be easily replicated". Nothing concrete I accept, but it just struck me as a slightly strange thing to say. Present returns aren’t great and the coal purchase has coincided with China directing provinces to mine as much coal as possible, and Indonesia mines ramping up. So what’s a good price actually? Struggling with that.

From recollection they’d sought a multiplicity of lenders to ensure they could get access cash. The asset sales seem to have paid off Santander, and the previous mood music from the CFO is that he’d like the remaining facility paid down as well. Personally, I’d like to see them expand a bit but i accept these are uncertain times.

I don't know his methodology, but he looks to be referencing an important price level in 2021/22 and roughly Fibonacci 50%. His 211 goes back to 2019 and beyond, coinciding with a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement. People wang on about how exact these are, but IMHO they are a helpful rough guide. My own flawed method includes a nod to timing. Roughly put, looking at timing band for AUS/USD Intermediate Cycle Lows, the ICLs of other miners (as Glencore really has been a falling knife and therefore impossible to chart), then Mid March looks to be a time of interest. Was more interested in Glencore than RIO, but unexpectedly iron ore is making a comeback, so open to looking more widely. People raving about Copper - which will definitely be needed and where the price should rise, should remember that its future projection is to a fair extent priced in - folk know about it. Tariffing commodities that are in short supply which cannot be changed readily is nuts, and likely won't last. Still interested in Glencore, but I'll consider over a pint of Guinness on St Patrick's Day.

For what it's worth, I used to do this with RIO. You could be fairly sure that Intermediate Cycle Lows would occur approximately every 6 months. I did this for about 2 years. Each trade would make about 15% - I'm not going to pretend my skill or bottle were any better than that. I stopped last year as I was becoming more concerned about a more generalised decline/crash. It held up last cycle, to my annoyance, but seems to be breaking down a little this cycle. Maybe that big move is coming? As far as GLEN is concerned I'm now waiting until mid March to see if a better entry presents itself., but over the last 5 years it's not been as clean a chart as RIO and therefore is probably beyond my charting skills. Sounds like I may be a bit of a more long term type investor than you, and I do think there is a lot of money to be made in GLEN - eventually.

Best of luck to you.

I was also quite cheered by this update. Dividend cover is reassuring and the level of dividend being maintained is excellent. Pleased by the debt coming down - I'm ashamed to admit that until today I didn't know that the amortised debt would be repaid in the currency of present government contracted subsidy, which I ought to have done -but welcome news good news. And the NAV will be more greatly influenced by BoE overnight rate than anything else, so as it (hopefully wafts down) should take care of itself. The most interesting thing in the report however was the mention of them reassessing the fee structure. I wonder if they are going for a Greatcoat Wind scenario? We'll see.

Thing is, I learned from the "China Today" podcast that China's debt increased by ~$1tn (~7.5tn RMB) in January alone. I'm not entirely sure what to think of that but it surely raises the prospect that they are launching, or have launched, a huge stimulus? Surprised it isn't bigger news, actually. In addition to that, the £ has likely printed a ICL, and probably a YCL, against the $. I imagine AUD will do the same in the course of the next month. Things may be coming together for the mining sector, but which to buy? BHP is out until its legal problems are resolved. Rio looks safer, but I thought that there'd be more to make with Glencore. Not sure.

Turnover up modestly. EBITDA down a fair bit. Overall a loss for the year. Shareholder returns down. Buyback a bit less than expected. Debt up - I, and the IC writers, must have completely misunderstood the basis of the coal deal. What I find the most off-putting however is the way this is phrased. "Funds from Operations", an internal (made up) metric is used to draw flak from the EBITDA number. It’s really hard to read.

I've still to invest, although the company has been of interest for a while now. I got interested by reading that the coal assets would be a cash cow and copper would make them enormous. The talk was of special dividends this year - and the IC podcast mentioned up to 20% - though they did say that would "dizzying". Since then it's done nothing but fall and whilst there still is some mention of a special dividend it's not what it was. What gives? Also, why the tie up with Rio? Why would they want that, if they are more dynamic? Baffled. Any help gratefully received.

Following Glencore with interest. The intermediate cycle low is due at the start of of March. There are however two big news flows dates straddling that - 19 Feb for preliminary results and 30th April for production report. Clearly the first of those is the bigger story. Getting to decision time.

I admire the bravery of the technical analyst who tries his hand at NESF. I did and bought at 71.924 early last year. Felt like a genius. Then waited on the Intermediate Cycle low that never came. Perhaps we have, eventually, had it. Certainly hope so. I think Trump's election changed the mood music on renewables. Only now does that seem to be breaking.

StarBright - very much this. Dividend cover is key, obviously, but don't forget the expense of maintaining the operational efficiency of their assets. Whilst the accounts are not always easy to read, I think that they are doing so. Feeling more relaxed this week - the first week in a while!