Member Info for dougerboy

Bang on Thordon. Someone maybe knows what you and a few other investors have known for a long time lol.

Nice one DFV. Buying at these levels. There is loads of Itaconic Acid being shipped into the USA just now, going by US Customs data.

Good questions AJP. My question is: Will 2023 be the year of moving beyond breakeven and into profitability?

Where will the market value be in 5 years AJP? We are still undervalued based on future potential for sure, but probably correct just now just looking at current size of business at this exact point in time. Our highs and lows of the past couple of years have reflected moves in hope/sentiment on actual delivery of breakeven I think combined with excitement over new business.

I’m still massively excited about Itaconix and just had a look at Itaconic Acid imports into USA: major shipments going into the USA (to many customers) and, as they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

On 9th April last year there was an RNS with Share Award to JS and YD as part of their incentive programme. Looks like no award for FY 2021 (no revenue growth), but given the incentive share award scheme expires end of 2022, I’m sure they are working hard to have the FY2022 numbers as good as possible!

Unless there is significant margin improvement happening, which would lower breakeven revenue.

DFV, this is what I posted on 4th Feb 2021, which I think is still a fair shout:

* If we maintain current margins of 37% GM (CoGS/Sales), and assuming an annual $3M overhead base, then we need Annual Revenue of $8.1M for breakeven. We are on that part of the journey where I see it as no longer the case of if we will get there, but when. Perhaps a reason why the CEO wisely put a 5-10 year window on the $75M objective.*

The question is DFV, what is the breakeven point for the company. I remember running some numbers a while back, and BE revenue - based on stated GM from annual report (I recall at some 37%) - was quite a bit more than Finncap 2022 projected revenue target. But what do I know! Anyway, I’ve still got my crosshairs on 2023, but things of course could take off before then.

Yep AJP, been here all the while just sitting & waiting and hoping my 2023 numbers guess is near the mark!

Current factory capacity can support a $15M business Amon. Plan for this year is $4.6M. 2023 might be double that (my guess). Building extra capacity depending on what they need to do is a 1-2 year affair - so they may well be on it now.

Still here baz. Waiting patiently. Looks like 2023 might (hopefully!) be my year, between this and ITX.

Thordon - if that is correct - and Finish is a Reckitt Benckiser product - that is a potential game changer because Reckitt Benckiser are right up there with Unilever, Henkel, et al

To quote John Shaw: “we are dealing with Science Fact, not science fiction.”

Total belief, as you say AJP. They clearly have a very tight relationship with IP Group and to me this looks like the delayed freight train containing the new business pipeline - seen by IP Group at the last 12p fund raise - is now approaching fast. Looks like additional investment, at this level, by this time next year might be worth more than their last.

Correctamundo mcm - wish it had been me lol. Based on my Ineos theory I bought another 105889 today. Might be wrong on that! But we are “dealing in science fact, not science fiction.” The CEO’s words from his last presentation.

Not sure about that one AJP, maybe someone closer to home, but you never know!

I’d forgotten about that AJP - well reminded! There HAS to be something in this. So many boxes are being ticked here. I also remember John saying they would look to have, down the line, a European Manufacturing Plant...

Our share price is way down on historical highs, but it’s stuff like this - even if wrong! - which keeps the interest and optimism burning.

Forgot to mention: Ineos is a leading European producer of Acrylonitrile - used to make acrylic yarns, but I’m probably barking up the wrong tree.

Nice one chilting!

“The new customer is a leading European supplier to companies that produce materials for the fashion and related industries. As a plant-based alternative to fossil-based polymers currently used in the production process,...”

So I would hazard a guess that our customer is a Yarn Producer, supplying yarns to textile manufacturers who are producing materials for the fashion houses. Acrylic yarns (petrochemical based) are significant market and if Itaconix are successful in getting in on that with a greener replacement ingredient well, that must be worth a few more £M on the sales ledger in a couple of years time!

Good spot AJP! Man, I was hovering over the buy button yesterday for some more, but funds went on Anglo Pacific & Reckitt Benckiser instead lol. Oh well, fair chance Reckitt are or will be using Itaconix product. But If not now, then when? They got a mention - with others - in our fundraise from 2020:

https://itaconix.com/wp-content/uploads/Itaconix-PLC-Circular-and-Notice-of-General-Meeting-June-2020.pdf

The silence is deafening! A calm before a flurry news? Something must be brewing, maybe big, maybe small, as we continue the March along the timeline to breakeven & profit in 2023. It pays sometimes to be very patient when the case is compelling.