George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
You might be right Surfie, so I might buy some more then. The question is: do we believe we are making and progressing the journey along the much publicised revenue growth curve and is that progress likely to continue. In my mind it’s still a yes to both those questions. I’ll be keeping an eye on inbound raw material shipments, which is a strong bellwether.
Thanks Smart & Surfie. It will be interesting to see where we are in 12 months. Many of us LTHs are aiming for the the triple 20 on the dartboard with a bullseye finish; when I started investing in ITX a while back, a major factor for me was protected IP products delivering belief in the revenue growth curve - which hasn’t changed - except we are now further along the revenue growth curve. A while back I said 20p by ‘23. I’m sticking with that (it might be be 31/12/23 admittedly!)
Good post RR. We are not far off 2023 and with some hefty raw material shipments coming in of late, it seems like the stars may be aligning. I’m now asking myself (again) what is the maximum amount of raw material which can be processed per month. Because if production capacity is at 2/3 utilisation based on latest raw material receipts, that puts us on $1M/month sales. JS has previously stated existing factory capacity when maxed out is good for $15M annually.
Eh, *a good idea and a good product isn’t enough* - you are bang on. Just as well Itaconix has multiple patents, products, and a product roadmap of its time. Doesn’t sound like it’s the right company for you, given your single idea/single product analysis, so maybe best sell - someone will give you 5p for them!
Maybe relevant, maybe not. But John Tsavalas, a research scientist at The University of New Hampshire, which makes him a colleague of Itaconix co-founder Yvon Durant, is named as a co-inventor on some of Itaconix IP. He is also, interestingly, named as co-inventor on IP belonging to Dow Chemical and Omnova (a US based subsidiary of Synthomer).
Nice work AJP! I just listened to the presentation and the key words were: “we have a $1M production line that can do $10M in sales”
There is a bit missing in that statement which is the amount (Tonnage) of raw material (Itaconic Acid) required to be processed on the $1M production line in order to hit the $10M Sales.
The $1M is an important number (especially as we can scale up capacity at modest cost) but it is capital cost and nothing to do with Cost of Goods Sold, as far as I can tell.
So the question is: how much Itaconic Acid needs to go through that $1M production line per month in order to generate $10M sales, annually?
I don’t have an answer on that (yet)!
Thanks AJP, when I’ve time I’m going to try and develop the numbers a bit more. Interesting what you mention John said. I don’t recall that - can you point me to that and what he said exactly?
$6M would be great by the way - that would a significant increase and getting close to 50% plant capacity (maybe they are at that now) and if the revenue curve keeps going the right way, they need to be thinking NOW about extra plant capacity for 2024 and beyond.
Hi Elsol that is a good question and it’s a metric I’m trying to figure out. I don’t have a full subscription to US import data (quite expensive) but I’ll endeavour to glean what I can from various free resources.
Great work guys. I’m not sure Smart on the Yearly change on inbound raw materials but as AJP says 2 20T shipments in August alone is a statement in itself. Looks like they are ramping up significantly. When I’ve time, I’m going to try and have a look at what it might translate to into numbers.
A tad more data on inbound raw material Itaconic Acid into the factory here:
https://www.seair.co.in/us-import/product-itaconic-acid/i-itaconix-corp.aspx
20T received in June; 20T received in July. That is very good news. Might buy a few more tomorrow!
No Frozen: the 30 days prior to 2022 results release (probably end March 2023) is the yardstick:
„The share price for the bonus award is based on the volume-weighted average closing mid-market share price over the 30 trading days immediately preceding the first day on which the financial results are publicly released.“
Luthrin - i agree with your analysis. He (and I) have posted on this before. It makes sense. John is a LTH - like many of us - and he knows his payday is coming. He‘s motivated to maximise that. What’s another 10 months in the overall scheme of things?
Sorry Wacca I genuinely wasn’t being sarcastic. I honestly didn’t know where you were going with your hopes - and I still have as a LTH plenty. And I don’t do sarcasm - I hate it! When this ship comes in I’m buying you a beer it two!