Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Thanks AJP. Now a wee challenge for any interested - to have a stab at our half year revenues and (if possible) why. I’ll have a go:
- full year 2020 was knocking on the door of 1/4 plant capacity utilisation
- we know that some months later in 2020 were better than break even and we can assume that trend has continued, given all the activities we know about
- I am assuming therefore all months are now breakeven as we continue repeat business (increasing) and add more new business
- I think we could on for 2/3 plant capacity utilisation for full 2021 which puts us on 2021 revs of $10M - which would be a massive increase. That will be second half loaded due to growth curve - so I’ll say for 1st half 2021 $4m - which will put a rocket under the a***e of the share price. But I’ll be just as happy with a 1st half around the $3M mark which means more of steady as she goes. I get things wrong often! DYOR
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Nice one Thordon. Through your find looks like we have a connection to the middle east/Turkey: https://www.atamanchemicals.com/sodium-polyitaconate_u3004/
Morning guys it’s been quite a journey - all without ramping , which has been very refreshing. I like to hear different views on share price expectations, based on decent research and insight, rather than 50p by whenever etc. A lot of that information is available on previous company presentations in regard to the potential growth available. It makes great reading. A great Next key event for me is when JS talks about factory capacity increases. We know the current factory can support $15M in sales plus whatever outsourced under licence sales on top of that (that amount I don’t think we don’t know yet). The current significant rises are a reflection of what is now the rapid move - due to market adoption - along that capacity timeline and towards/beyond breakeven. 25p by 2022/23 was, based on research, a goal I thought achievable. But I think I might be wrong on that! As JS says, this is just the start.
Welcome aboard Panino. I’ve been here a while had a modest holding which was underwater for a bit and took the plunge late last year and stuck in (for me) a fair chunk and am now around 1.7M shares. Based on the GREAT work by parob, thordon et al & patt over on advn and others there is validation of a compelling business story. For me, key has been going through the company presentations, podcasts, interviews, and the like delivered by the CEO John Shaw - who has serious skin in the game . His delivery has been cautious, yet with understated unshakeable optimism through his belief in the company strategy of causing a dislocation in the targeted markets through a superbly strong product portfolio & roadmap, protected by IP, of which we know a lot, but which is probably still only the tip of the iceberg. Normally, I’d be checking out of here, having enjoyed the ride from 2.5p. But this is just the start.
Yep & the train is just leaving the station. Here a reminder of why I'm sure most of us are here. Wish I was a chemist though!
hTtpS://www.cbp.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/cbp/en/documents/project-reports/BioConSepT_Market-potential-for-selected-platform-chemicals_report1.pdf
Can‘t recall if this has been posted before, but gives a clear steer on what our VP Sales is spending her time on.
https://www.ropella.com/case_studies/Ropella_CheatesandChelatingAgents_Sales_VP_Sales_Itaconix_Case_Study.pdf
Stumbled on this, which is interesting, and it looks a Unilever Vendor database, on which Itaconix appears. Happy to stand corrected on that though. It’s a list which is an interesting who’s who in that industry.
https://emsapi-q.unilever.com/Flow/Help/LotLegalValues
Well Thordon, QFI, invented emulsified HFO alternative called MSAR and now BioMSAR well before that (it’s been an arduous journey - I’m almost back at B.E.) and i have everything crossed on that ship finally coming in.
I’m going to try and do a bit more digging AJP. On this years expected numbers, I’m not sure, but given everything that’s happening and the new VP Ops being charged with capacity planning and product scheduling optimisation for different IA polymer recipes presumably, I could imagine that by the end of the year we are running the factory at 2/3 tilt. Anything above $8M will be, as we say in Glasgow, “ya dancer.” Just my opinion!
I agree Thordon. Meanwhile, I stumble on another part of the Itaconix delivery to market channel
http://walsh-assoc.com/suppliers/itaconix-corp/
I don’t recall seeing their name before, so apologies if it’s old news. Interestingly, on looking at Walsh’s website they seem to have major warehousing facilities. I wonder if that is a two way street...might be important as the business grows & grows & grows.
£1 a share would be lovely to get back to. Who knows, but it feels like we’re on a pleasant journey at the moment. I remember the lovely view from the heady heights of £1.40’s Would be nice to go back there. Let the journey at accompanying 7% yield continue.
EyeOB I think the company knows exactly what it’s doing and for that reason I personally am comfortable waiting for the half year update. I think - and JS alluded to this in the last interview I think - some months had already been breakeven and presumably some hadn’t. For me that growth I think continues with presumably some months now being better than breakeven and other months with sales lower than the best months. Given the overall size of the business - just now - he would therefore be making a rod for his own back he gave regular commentary, which at this stage would just fuel the AIM pump & dumpers
Just heading out on the motorcycle AJP - I'll need to give that some thought - really hard to say, as we are just at the start of the curve. i think - to use a Donald Rumsfeld quote: "there are things we know that we don't know, known unknowns." BUT John Shaw & his team I'm almost certain do. On that basis, any number I suggest wouldn't be nearly as good as the number JS has in mind, I'm sure!
Just picked up 25000 at 10.29p. I was thinking about Itaconix product offerings again, and it is rare to be able to say that this is still very much the start of the upward curve. Product is being shipped and sold to substitute environmentally harmful ingredients in the markets served by Itaconix, which are huge. But crucially, like renewable energy, we know our environmentally beneficial products and ingredients will be around, being made, and sold for decades to come.
Lovely AJP. The more I read & research the more I like. The competitive advantage which has been built over years of research, hard work, and investment into the positioning of Itaconix is now reaping rewards.
Apologies if this is old info (from 2019) but I hadn’t seen it before and it’s a worthwhile read showing the inter connectivity of the industry and affirms once more the superb positioning of Itaconix within it.
*Innovative solutions that help our customers improve their products, become more competitive and sustainable, and uncover new business opportunities are central to how we work,” said Charlie Shaver, CEO of Nouryon. “As partnership is the key to success, we are very pleased to add more organizations to our Imagine Chemistry network, including Unilever, one of our key customers.”*
https://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2019/01/30/nouryon-partners-with-unilever-investment-companies-and-startup-networks-to-accelerate-innovation-in-chemistry/
I see that AJP - massive. On my musings below I made a serious flaw: our ingredients are only a small % by weight of finished product (does anyone know?) - so I stand probably corrected on factory space pressure.
Great sleuthing work AJP. In one of the Solvay sheets I see a hint of revenues to tonnages: https://www.solvay.com/sites/g/files/srpend221/files/tridion/documents/PR-20171016-Eureco-Bussi-EN.pdf
Which gives ca. €250-€400/T. But I have no idea how that price point relates to our Revenues/T for the different polymer products we produce. Hopefully it is a lot more! It is meaningful though in that it attaches a physical quantity to a revenue, from a chemical ingredients player in the industry. €200M/500.000 T = €400/T. The tonnage is a lot of product and equates to nearly 10000T/week. That’s a lot of trucks. At those tonnages Solvay are probably moving a lot of product - across all their product range - by barge/ship/rail.
So my question is: what physical tonnages are we geared up for from our own factory, how much demand (tonnage) can that satisfy, and how much demand (tonnage) will need to be satisfied through IP licencing?
It feels like our factory in NH (31000 sq. ft. can soon become too small!) is the product roadmap validator, producing NPD (new product development) formulations/initial volumes & trusted licenced partners picking up bigger volumes.
But I may be complete wrong! All food for thought and IMO.