Member Info for doubleorquits8

Meoryou (or maybe Markgo in disguise!), whilst BP may be a safe bet through all this it depends if you want to keep your money in the market and gamble on will it go up, hold, or go down. I’ve exited at 420 to watch and see where we are headed. Will be hard for BP to continue upward momentum in seas of red and all markets sliding / correcting combined with recession, biggest shock to UK since 1970 etc etc. oil price will fall back with this headwind. Sunday we will hear if Sweden and Finland vote to join nato and hear Putin threatening escalation of the war in reaction. All these shocks will temper the ability for BP share price to grow IMO. Obviously I don’t want people to lose money and price to drop but if it does fall back I will re-enter

Bumble, was just the last sentence about price off the wall to out of space made me chuckle! Not comparing diesel per barrel to crude price per barrel!

On Oilprice.com re Diesel prices:

“ Currently, diesel at New York harbor is trading at around $5 per gallon, which is well above $200 per barrel, Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at OPIS, told CNBC’s Pippa Stevens.

“These are numbers that are not just off the charts. They’re off the walls, out of the building, and maybe out of the solar system,” Kloza told CNBC.

I sold out a few days back thinking we had had a few too many green days and would be due a healthy pull back / consolidation / some bad news would be inevitable.

I am torn on how to play the inevitable recession that is coming. In 2008 Q2 to 2009 Q1 recession POO went from 140 to 40. BP dropped about 20% in parallel.

So the question this time is is the recession going to drive a huge demand destruction reduction in POO that drives a drop in energy company share prices or are energy companies a hedge against the recession.

Whilst I think for the next quarter the commodity super cycle continues up, at some point Q2/3 I think safer to exit and sit in cash waiting for some bargains.

Sadly for lots of companies like IAG and EasyJet the recovery from Covid looks short lived and recession driven by purse tightening I think will see new lows tested.

My post from a few weeks back on two faced Mark:

Wow, what a difference a couple of weeks off makes markgo “everyone’s mate” from bear to bull or from short to long!

7th April at 377p “Today's new energy policy announcement puts BP in a fantastic position going forward with the ramping up of offshore wind and hydrogen power. Nuclear is planned to provide 50GW of power by 2050 !! It's just part of the mix. BP is set to provide, at least 50GW of renewable energy by 2030 along with a massive highest profit, lowest cost hydrocarbon business. BP is in an excellent position for long term investors.”

14th March at 356p “ I may be wrong but I have come to the conclusion that BP is a sell or a multi year transitional gamble hold.”

And another post “

There is nothing to feel good about here. BP has not stopped falling and looks like it will continue its spiral downwards. A lesser fall than oil today is irrelevant and with all due respect looking at the situation as a glass 1/10th full.”

And

“AsPIs we are being kept in the dark, no wonder buybacks have been paused, Looney, the board and institutional investors know the truth and are dumping this dog only for the gullible private investor to think they are picking up an undervalued bargain. Where is the floor. 320, 310 ?”

And

“BP is a long, long, term speculative gamble. No wonder its being sold.”

And

“ Anyone investing in BP is investing in uncertainty and they are many other safer energy shares to invest in other than this half way house company. BP is a fool's gold share for dreamers.”

I am sure he is amongst us under another alias. Called him out for playing the long term investor with a million pounds all in on BP then saying BP was a dead duck with no prospects of success. Most people I think could see through this nonsense. He did pop up a week or so ago with a negative article on chevron missing there anticipated revenues and hinting Bp and Shell would follow but what a surprise. He was wrong. I personally prefer the board without his waffle.

It’s results day today – always important but this quarter, bp is reporting against the backdrop of Russia’s attack on Ukraine and all its heartbreaking consequences.

Our decision to exit our Rosneft shareholding means we have taken some large non-cash charges in our accounts, which show up in a headline loss of $20.4 billion. Three important things to say about that:

- First, it does NOT change our strategy or our financial plans.

- Second, the business is performing well – and the underlying numbers show that.

- Third, we are transforming the company for tomorrow.

Nowhere shows that better than the UK where we are looking to invest up to £18 billion in ‘home-grown energy’ by 2030.   

Yes, the deeply tragic situation in Ukraine has shaped what we’re reporting today. And it has exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis that many millions are having to deal with. Our job is to do all we can to keep energy flowing where it is needed. And help our local communities where we can.

One final thought for now – when we started our transformation, we said we’d look to deliver energy that is reliable, affordable and clean. This is at the core of our strategy:

Providing the hydrocarbons the world needs today – with lower emissions – while, at the same time, investing to accelerate the energy transition.

That is what we mean by an Integrated Energy Company. And its role has never been clearer.

We stay the course - performing while transforming.

That’s what we’re focused on. That’s what the teams are doing. And I’m grateful to every single one of them.

Usual press as expected… headline is

“BP's profits for the first three months of this year have more than doubled after oil and gas prices soared.”

whereas the reality is

“Including the cost of exiting its 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft, BP reported a loss of $20.3bn for the first quarter.”

So actually they made a huge loss because of the war.

No government intervention when oil went to zero.

During covid and COP26 we were mud not invited to the nonsense spouting O&G had peaked and wasn’t needed anymore, telling fund managers to stop investing pensions in O&G. This energy crunch has been on the horizon for a long time with no credible alternative investments in nuclear, renewables etc.

Government tells us to exit Rosneft while they continue to buy Russian O&G.

The Tories do understand this hypocrisy and I doubt they will impose windfall as it only acts to prolong the energy crisis reducing long term investment with a short term gift to the public.

https://stocknews.com/news/shel-abbv-xom-after-rallying-more-than-10-year-to-date-theres-more-in-store/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/looking-top-momentum-pick-why-160004684.html

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/06/21/energy-metal-commodities-investment-strategy.html

I am pro BP, but at c15p / KWH that is £337? Not a lot to shout about! Please correct me if I am wrong!!

What a dog of a share, in an upwards spiral Markgo, absolutely nothing going for it and I am selling my million pound holding in BP!

Love your graphs Boyo, please keep doing them!

Wow, what a difference a couple of weeks off makes markgo “everyone’s mate” from bear to bull or from short to long!

7th April at 377p “Today's new energy policy announcement puts BP in a fantastic position going forward with the ramping up of offshore wind and hydrogen power. Nuclear is planned to provide 50GW of power by 2050 !! It's just part of the mix. BP is set to provide, at least 50GW of renewable energy by 2030 along with a massive highest profit, lowest cost hydrocarbon business. BP is in an excellent position for long term investors.”

14th March at 356p “ I may be wrong but I have come to the conclusion that BP is a sell or a multi year transitional gamble hold.”

And another post “

There is nothing to feel good about here. BP has not stopped falling and looks like it will continue its spiral downwards. A lesser fall than oil today is irrelevant and with all due respect looking at the situation as a glass 1/10th full.”

And

“AsPIs we are being kept in the dark, no wonder buybacks have been paused, Looney, the board and institutional investors know the truth and are dumping this dog only for the gullible private investor to think they are picking up an undervalued bargain. Where is the floor. 320, 310 ?”

And

“BP is a long, long, term speculative gamble. No wonder its being sold.”

And

“ Anyone investing in BP is investing in uncertainty and they are many other safer energy shares to invest in other than this half way house company. BP is a fool's gold share for dreamers.”

Most people know about Nicolai Tangen’s talents in finance – I mean, he does run the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund that owns shares in around 9,000 companies, including bp! But what you might not know about are his skills as a presenter. Turns out he’s pretty amazing – as I found out when he invited me onto the new series of his #InGoodCompany podcast.
 
We covered a lot of ground – bp’s strategy, transformation, finances – as well as some bits and pieces about me…??
 
I really enjoyed it – and think it might be of interest to people on LinkedIn. Perhaps to learn a bit more about what we’re doing at bp – but mainly just to hear what a brilliant guy Nicolai is. And you’ll be able to link to his other interviews.
 
Thanks for having me, Nicolai – or as I joined you in Norway - tusen takk!
 
https://on.bp.com/3uFYI1u

“ India is not just a big player in the energy transition – it’s going to drive it. I’ve just come back from there and it’s clear – India has the scale, the ambition, the people and the policies to be a global leader. And bp wants to be there every step of the way.

So it was a privilege to discuss India’s – and bp’s – transformation with Prime Minister Modi and other senior government ministers on last week’s visit – and talking in person just felt amazing, after so many months of virtual meetings.

Why am I so confident about India’s potential? Just look at what we’re doing with Mukesh Ambani and the team over at Reliance. It’s one of the very strongest partnerships we have and we’re working together right across our portfolio: ramping up India’s domestic gas production and selling natural gas to companies to replace liquid fuels – and we’re rolling out Jio-bp mobility stations with an increasing focus on EVs. In fact, we’re now also building standalone charging hubs – there’s one in Delhi, where you can charge 88 vehicles at once!

And then we have our amazing Castrol brand, which has a huge – and growing – presence in the country.
In India, I can tell you – we are going all in...

My only regret is not having the chance to visit one of our retail sites in person. I guess I’ll have to wait until next time to try our most popular combo – a cappuccino with a samosa! ??

#energytransition
#bpnetzero”

Gone v quiet, have you sold out of your position of the dog and doomed share?

I’d sell this dog of a company that is in a death spiral if I were you Mark… fundamentals are all pointing to the downside and it is a dead duck. Absolutely nothing going for it and it is heading to zero.

I on the other hand will hang around with those buying April options of BP ADR going to $30 and pick up my quarterly loyalty bonus

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-World-Is-Facing-A-Critical-Diesel-Shortage.html

“ In the UK, meanwhile, the Daily Mail cited analysts as warning that the government may need to resort to diesel fuel rationing from next month because of the state of the market and the ban on Russian oil imports, which include diesel fuel. Russia supplied a third of the UK's imported diesel before the ban.

"Risks of energy rationing and ultimately a recession are growing by the day - something most policymakers seem to be ignoring or not grasping right now.”

Other great charts showing todays breakout up:

“The usual mistaken impression about charts is that they are predictive. Whilst it’s true that they indicate what might be expected if things (trends) continue, their real usefulness is when they indicate that things are changing because the price has broken out of a given path. Like monarchs, when one trend dies the next one takes over. The green (upward pressure) here has had a few iterations (I’ve only shown four) because it keeps being challenged and beaten by downward pressure (red). Their latest battle was probably decided today: https://invst.ly/xo1b3 Green looks certain to win after today’s bounce off the 1880 support area, provided OP doesn’t shove a spanner in the works. The 15’ view spells it out more clearly: https://invst.ly/xo27c . It may seem a minor skirmish for LTH’s but the main question is whether there’s still enough upward pressure to test 2060 again? It’ll be the fourth attempt at reaching 2100.“