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A quick repost from last week that Vistry is exiting private sale to become pure partnership model - completely different to all other major house builders. 39bn to support this sector starting to flow later this year. 16bn bank providing 1% rate loans for developers like Vistry to deliver schemes. Huge house building opportunity ahead.

Bloomberg Article 29/32 Apr 2026 07:56

Really good read, is behind paywall but if you download the Bloomberg app, skip subscribing you can then search for it. The last bit of it explains how the activist hedge fund who has 30% in Vistry sees it not doing any private sales calling this the legacy business which is being discounted and sold off in order that it is entirely focussed on RP housing delivery:

“Less than a fortnight later, Fitzgerald announced Vistry would retreat from private housebuilding entirely to focus solely on the hedge funds’ favored partnerships model.”

“Vistry has asked suppliers for discounts, part of a hunt for efficiencies that has also seen it been accused of being slow to pay, including as recently as this month, according to a report by the Sunday Times. ”

““Vistry built one in seven of the country’s affordable homes last year,” the spokesman wrote. “We work closely with our subcontractor and broader supplier network to manage our cost base and provide continuity of work.”

Vistry announced earlier this month that Fitzgerald would retire by the end of March next year, after a 45-year career in the industry. At the same time it warned that market conditions remain challenging, triggering the latest share slump.

For the hedge funds, which remain major backers of the company, the search is now on for a new boss to deliver the promise of an NVR-like UK housebuilder.

“David Capital believes the partnerships model is both attractive to investors and serves a meaningful public good,” Patinkin wrote in an email, highlighting that its profit warnings and discounting related to the legacy housing business, not the partnerships unit.

“We remain supportive as Vistry completes its transformation to a pure-play partnerships operator,” Patinkin said.

It seems Betterlife or Gettalife has gone or been kicked off… coincidence?

Is the AGM being broadcast? Anyone find a link?

Getterlife, how’s your short going?

Business as usual and despite all the stupid MP,s questioning Vistry viability, Homes England and Vistry are getting on with delivery…

Errr Matty, you are wrong, other big boys are all getting in on partnerships and JVs

A major step forward for UK housing delivery 👇

Places for People has announced a joint venture with Barratt Redrow to deliver an 8,500-home garden town in East Hertfordshire.

Part of the wider Harlow and Gilston Garden Town, the scheme will create six interconnected villages, including nearly 2,000 affordable homes, alongside schools, infrastructure, and green space.

What stands out is the scale and long-term thinking:

🏗️ £6bn projected economic impact

🚧 £600m investment into infrastructure

🏢 29,000 sqm of commercial space

🌱 A focus on community-led, sustainable placemaking

This isn’t just another housing development - it’s a shift towards partnership-led delivery at scale, combining a housing association’s long-term stewardship model with a major developer’s build capability.

With increasing pressure to deliver housing faster (and better), it’ll be interesting to see how models like this shape future large-scale schemes.

https://shorturl.at/NbI6Y

A quick repost from last week that Vistry is exiting private sale to become pure partnership model - completely different to all other major house builders. 39bn to support this sector starting to flow later this year. 16bn bank providing 1% rate loans for developers like Vistry to deliver schemes. Huge house building opportunity ahead.

Bloomberg Article 29/32 Apr 2026 07:56

Really good read, is behind paywall but if you download the Bloomberg app, skip subscribing you can then search for it. The last bit of it explains how the activist hedge fund who has 30% in Vistry sees it not doing any private sales calling this the legacy business which is being discounted and sold off in order that it is entirely focussed on RP housing delivery:

“Less than a fortnight later, Fitzgerald announced Vistry would retreat from private housebuilding entirely to focus solely on the hedge funds’ favored partnerships model.”

“Vistry has asked suppliers for discounts, part of a hunt for efficiencies that has also seen it been accused of being slow to pay, including as recently as this month, according to a report by the Sunday Times. ”

““Vistry built one in seven of the country’s affordable homes last year,” the spokesman wrote. “We work closely with our subcontractor and broader supplier network to manage our cost base and provide continuity of work.”

Vistry announced earlier this month that Fitzgerald would retire by the end of March next year, after a 45-year career in the industry. At the same time it warned that market conditions remain challenging, triggering the latest share slump.

For the hedge funds, which remain major backers of the company, the search is now on for a new boss to deliver the promise of an NVR-like UK housebuilder.

“David Capital believes the partnerships model is both attractive to investors and serves a meaningful public good,” Patinkin wrote in an email, highlighting that its profit warnings and discounting related to the legacy housing business, not the partnerships unit.

“We remain supportive as Vistry completes its transformation to a pure-play partnerships operator,” Patinkin said.

Really good read, is behind paywall but if you download the Bloomberg app, skip subscribing you can then search for it. The last bit of it explains how the activist hedge fund who has 30% in Vistry sees it not doing any private sales calling this the legacy business which is being discounted and sold off in order that it is entirely focussed on RP housing delivery:

“Less than a fortnight later, Fitzgerald announced Vistry would retreat from private housebuilding entirely to focus solely on the hedge funds’ favored partnerships model.”

“Vistry has asked suppliers for discounts, part of a hunt for efficiencies that has also seen it been accused of being slow to pay, including as recently as this month, according to a report by the Sunday Times. ”

““Vistry built one in seven of the country’s affordable homes last year,” the spokesman wrote. “We work closely with our subcontractor and broader supplier network to manage our cost base and provide continuity of work.”

Vistry announced earlier this month that Fitzgerald would retire by the end of March next year, after a 45-year career in the industry. At the same time it warned that market conditions remain challenging, triggering the latest share slump.

For the hedge funds, which remain major backers of the company, the search is now on for a new boss to deliver the promise of an NVR-like UK housebuilder.

“David Capital believes the partnerships model is both attractive to investors and serves a meaningful public good,” Patinkin wrote in an email, highlighting that its profit warnings and discounting related to the legacy housing business, not the partnerships unit.

“We remain supportive as Vistry completes its transformation to a pure-play partnerships operator,” Patinkin said.

I listened yesterday to this great podcast by the founder of Pocket Living who provide starter homes at perpetual 20% discount to market without getting subsidies and grants. At the end of the pod he says “I don’t know why we don’t have more competition in this space, we are making good money, not high margins but I don’t think we should when we carry little to no sales risk”. To me this rings true with where Vistry are heading, little private sale risk, high ROCE, efficient use of capital to create huge turnover and a reliable margin.

Repeating my post from a few days ago that Vistry discounting IN SOME AREAS (the south east) their small proportion of private sale was in Greggs words getting ahead of what all other developers would be doing. And the others have much higher private sale proportions. And sure enough Barratts followed suit with discounts

Barratt fee extract:

'Britain's largest homebuilder Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L), in early February cut its dividend after earnings fell as it ramped ‌up ⁠incentives to stimulate demand.“

Teddy, interesting looking at the Barratt feed.. extract below but in essence, Barratt doing the same as Vistry and incentivising sales with discounts. The government have very few major players to split 39b with, Vistry, Barratt, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey. Vistry having prioritised partnership approach (as have Mount Anvil).

Vistry should be seeing £1b of grants per annum toward making schemes viable accelerating ROCE.

There is nothing wrong with Vistry or Barratt. Both trading at 50% NAV with values underwritten by land and assets.

Be brave when others are fearful.

Mid terms means Trump has to off-ramp asap…

Interesting article that it thinks price cuts are deeper than analysts think…

The projected years profits account for all the discounts needed to shift stock and free up cash flow. The sale of private stock is because Vistry / Greg foresees other developers having to do this and just haven’t yet.

I worked at Berkeley, when selling a unit. The sales director would reflect on price offered, discount to list price and if acceptable, say yes to secure the sale. They don’t get hung up on telling the shareholders in advance what sales discount they are accepting.

The important bit for me is the expected margin reflecting some discounts in some areas (predominantly the south east) on a small percentage of the private stock is all factored in. Year end performance together with RP’s being funded again from the £39b will see money flowing through the business improving ROCE as RPs pay upfront on schemes massively helping project cash flows.

Buy a stock that is underwritten by its NAV / even half its NAV, it is underwritten by land and they aren’t making anymore land… this is a buy, hold and don’t worry for me about the current SP. Wish I had got some at this price but hey ho.

The

Instead of developers selling houses individually, they often sell entire phases of developments to housing associations.

Advantages for developers:

• guaranteed sales

• faster capital recycling

• lower marketing costs.

Advantages for housing associations:

• access to new homes without running large construction operations.

⸻

4. Large developers are building more “pre-sold” homes

In the past, UK housebuilders relied heavily on selling homes to individual buyers.

Now a typical development might include:

• 30–40% affordable housing

• additional build-to-rent units sold to institutional investors

• only the remainder sold on the open market.

This means a majority of homes can be pre-sold before construction finishes.

⸻

5. Why this shifts control toward government funding

Because affordable housing depends on grants and housing association finances, government policy now strongly influences the development pipeline.

If grants are expanded:

• affordable housing construction rises

• developers secure large partnership deals.

If grants are delayed or reduced:

• projects stall

• developers face cash-flow problems.

This is exactly what’s currently affecting Vistry Group.

⸻

6. The emerging model of UK housebuilding

Some analysts think the UK housing sector is evolving toward a structure similar to infrastructure delivery.

Developers may increasingly act as delivery contractors for:

• housing associations

• local authorities

• institutional investors

• government programmes.

In that world, companies with strong public-sector partnerships could dominate large regeneration projects.

⸻

✅ The big takeaway

The UK housing market is gradually shifting from:

Private speculative housebuilding

→ toward

Public-private partnership housing development

That’s why Vistry’s strategy exists — it’s trying to position itself at the centre of this new model.

⸻

💡 Interestingly, this shift is also starting to change land values and land strategy for developers.

If you’re interested, I can explain a subtle but important effect:

why land suitable for affordable housing partnerships is starting to be valued differently from traditional housing land.

What analysts really think is happening

Most industry analysts believe the current situation is more about a strategic transition than an existential crisis.

Vistry is going through three simultaneous challenges:

• integrating the Countryside acquisition

• switching its entire business model

• dealing with delays in government housing funding.

Those changes have created short-term cash pressure and accounting problems, but they don’t necessarily indicate a systemic collapse.

⸻

✅ In short:

Some early warning signs resemble those seen before Carillion failed, but the underlying financial structure is very different. Most analysts think the issue is execution risk during a big strategy shift, rather than a fundamental insolvency threat.

⸻

If you’re interested, there’s actually a much bigger structural issue in UK housebuilding that sits behind this whole story — it’s the quiet shift from private housebuilders controlling the market to government-funded housing driving construction.

That shift is starting to change how land gets developed and who really controls the pipeline of homes. I can explain that too if you want.

A major structural shift has been happening in UK housebuilding over the last decade: a growing share of new homes is effectively driven by government-funded affordable housing rather than purely private market demand. This is the broader trend behind the strategy of Vistry Group.

Here’s how that shift works.

⸻

1. The planning system already requires affordable housing

Most residential developments in England must include affordable housing quotas under planning rules.

Local authorities typically require 20–40% of homes in a development to be:

• social rent

• affordable rent

• shared ownership.

These obligations are usually negotiated through Section 106 agreements.

Section 106 agreement

Developers agree to provide affordable homes (or funding) as part of planning permission.

In practice this means:

• a housing association buys part of the development

• often before construction even begins.

So a significant share of new homes already depends on public-sector buyers.

⸻

2. Government grant funding fills the financial gap

Affordable housing rents are lower than market rents, so housing associations cannot always pay full market prices for new homes.

To make projects viable, the government provides subsidies through programmes run by Homes England.

One of the key schemes is:

• the Affordable Homes Programme

This provides billions of pounds of grants to help build:

• social rent homes

• affordable rent homes

• shared ownership homes.

Developers like Vistry often structure projects around these grants.

⸻

3. Housing associations have become major “bulk buyers”

Housing associations now act as institutional buyers of new homes.

Instead of developers selling houses individually, they often sell entire phases of developments to hou

Chat GPT analysis really good:

Some construction analysts and suppliers have drawn comparisons between the current issues at Vistry Group and the early warning signs that appeared before the collapse of Carillion in the Carillion collapse.

However, many experts also stress that the comparison is only partial and may be exaggerated. Here’s why the parallels are being discussed — and why the situations are still quite different.

⸻

Why some analysts see similarities

1. Profit adjustments on long-term contracts

One warning sign before Carillion failed was that it repeatedly revised profits downward after discovering that projects were costing far more than expected.

Similarly, Vistry Group recently had to recognise about £165 million of extra costs on some partnership housing developments because costs had been underestimated.

Large regeneration projects can involve:

• complex infrastructure

• long construction timelines

• fixed-price agreements

If costs rise, margins disappear quickly.

⸻

2. Pressure on the supply chain

Before Carillion collapsed, subcontractors reported:

• delayed payments

• requests for discounts

• disputes over valuations

The recent reporting about Vistry describes similar tension with suppliers, including requests to defer payments.

For analysts, supply-chain stress is often an early signal of cash-flow problems.

⸻

3. Dependence on government-linked projects

Carillion was heavily reliant on government infrastructure contracts.

Vistry’s new model also depends heavily on government-funded affordable housing programmes.

That makes the business exposed to:

• policy changes

• funding delays

• public-sector bureaucracy.

⸻

Why the situations are actually very different

Despite the headlines, there are several major differences.

⸻

1. Balance sheet strength

When Carillion collapsed, it had:

• enormous debt

• very little cash

• huge pension liabilities.

By contrast, Vistry Group still has:

• a relatively strong balance sheet

• significant land assets

• access to bank financing.

That makes a sudden collapse far less likely.

⸻

2. Different business models

Carillion was a contractor — meaning it built infrastructure for fixed prices and carried huge cost risks.

Vistry is primarily a developer, meaning it:

• owns land

• controls project phasing

• can slow construction if needed.

That gives it much more flexibility to protect cash flow.

⸻

3. Asset backing

Housebuilders like Vistry Group hold large land banks.

These land assets provide collateral and can be sold if necessary.

Carillion’s infrastructure contracts had far fewer tangible assets behind them.

⸻

4. Investor scrutiny is higher today

After the Carillion collapse, regulators and investors became far more cautious about construction companies.

Accounting scrutiny and financial oversight are now much tighter.

⸻

What analysts re

Stupid FT article… says nothing, is like this politician has just realised there was an accounting error two years ago. Says nothing that isn’t known.

Seems to confirm that Vistry are or were Strategic Partner Plus with Homes England which allows bidding for £700m of grants. Someone else mentioned this that on investor call Greg said we weren’t this year YET?

4% must be worried of being burnt hard… they’ve had a great short but time to exit!

RSI shows oversold

Low price / book multiple

Low PE ratio

Low revenue valuation multiple

Profitable

Delivering 16% of UK housing with 75% backed by government with national market diversification

Interesting for me on investor call was Greg said where they were offering sales price discounts was predominantly in the South East… Berkeley Homes territory. I wouldn’t be in Berkeley right now and am very happy in Vistry!

All sites are multi year delivery with site costs often bought with land payments phased over phasing years. They never flood their own market finishing 1000’s of units on one site. Most upside forecasts are for this to be 800+ You can bet the board who are major shareholders are not worried about this share price whilst being one of the few developers who can at scale deliver the various forms of affordable housing for the country of which grants are starting to flow to RPs. Also, 1% interest loans for developers delivering affordable housing is practically 0% finance… if I had more powder I’d be buying more but sadly out of powder!!

I bought lots at 520 and very happy to hold but obviously wish I had got some at 450!

To me, Vistry is very compelling play, the company is profitable! Is trading at half its NAV, is delivering 16% on UK national houses with diversified market risk, carries much lower private sale market risk exposure, housing associations are back in the market committing to new Vistry schemes, the HAs forward fund schemes improving ROCE, the Vistry factories are churning out 5000+ homes per annum which are extremely quick to put up on site and control cost on so they are ahead of the competition for HA commitments, this is a solid investment. If Homes England are happy to keep partnering with Vistry I am happy to invest.

And they are delivering 15% of annual UK housing with diversified risk over the whole of the UK unlike Berkeley… they really are a great opportunity at this price. Never thought we would see sub 600p again!